A Top Russian Official Rang The Alarm About Deteriorating Relations With Armenia

The directness with which he addressed the challenges that Armenia now poses to Russia’s interests contrasts with the discreetness hitherto employed by officials and suggests that they now want to precondition the public for what might come next after expecting the worst.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk gave a detailed interview to TASS about relations with Armenia after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s latest meeting with Putin at the Kremlin. The theme that pervaded throughout was Armenia’s efforts to find a buyer to replace Russia’s ownership of its railway far ahead of the 2038 expiry of their 2008 deal. The alleged justification is that continued Russian ownership deters international partners from using Armenian railways for facilitating Eurasian trade.

Overchuk fervently argued against that claim and mentioned that “The Armenian leadership is focused on reducing the presence of Russian interests in their country. This is being exploited by players outside the region, who are pursuing their own agendas that don’t align with Armenia’s long-term interests.” For these reasons, “one comes to the conclusion that our colleagues are very close to the point where we will have to restructure our economic relations with this country.”

That would be disastrous for the Armenian economy, which is dependent on trade with Russia and generously discounted energy from it, as the aforesaid benefits can’t easily be replaced by the EU. About that, Overchuck described the EU as “a military-political bloc hostile to Russia”, which he said that Armenia is being prepared to join. While Armenia denies having hostile intentions towards Russia, he said that “Saying one thing and doing another, you must agree, is not the best way to develop relations.”

He also pointed to the violation of a dual Russian citizen’s property rights in a reference to Armenia’s nationalization of jailed opposition leader Samvel Karapetyan’s electric company and implied that continued unfriendliness towards Russian nationals’ interests in Armenia could prompt reciprocal action. At the very least, he warned, it could also deter other Russian businessmen from investing in Armenia. That’s arguably what Armenia’s new Western partners want to have happen at the country’s expense.

On that note, he questioned the benefit of Armenia hosting a massive American AI data center since the enormous electricity costs will be passed down to consumers, barely any jobs will be created, and it’s infamously difficult to calculate taxes for such enterprises. That’s why, in his opinion, the West seeks to relocate such centers to foreign jurisdictions. Overchuck also said that “Russian nuclear power companies will have no competition” if the procurement process is fair, thus hinting that it won’t be.

The last important part of his interview saw him condemning last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) for upsetting the regional security balance vis-à-vis Russia, Iran, and Turkiye. Russia’s involvement in this now rebranded corridor would have maintained the aforesaid balance to everyone’s benefit but now the US is unilaterally disrupting it. He’s very concerned about TRIPP, pessimistic about its economic prospects, and strongly dislikes the US’ new regional role.

Reflecting on the insight that he shared and recalling how it was timed for release to the public right after Putin’s meeting with Pashinyan, there isn’t any doubt that policymakers from the Commander-in-Chief on down to his Deputy Prime Minister and further are aware of Armenia’s game. They’re now openly addressing the challenges that it poses instead of remaining discreet about them, including those connected with TRIPP, likely because they now expect the worst and want to precondition the public.