Aliyev Expects To Rise To Global Stardom By Stirring Up Highly Publicized Trouble With Russia

This might backfire if the Global South perceives him to be a Western proxy and Russia intensifies its asymmetrical responses, however, so it’s best for him to relent before it’s too late.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was hitherto known as a pragmatic leader who was actively multi-aligning between competing power centers. As part of that policy, Azerbaijan and Russia became strategic allies, yet he suddenly jeopardized their mutually beneficial relations by stirring up highly publicized trouble with Russia over the past week, which readers can learn more about here and here. It was completely out of character for him to do this, thus raising questions about his motives.

In short, Azerbaijan appears to be taking advantage of reports that Armenia might open the “Zangezur Corridor” but without allowing it to come under Russian control like agreed. That would streamline Turkiye’s military logistics to Central Asia and thus turbocharge its rise as a Eurasian Great Power at the expense of Russian influence there. Even if that unfolds, Aliyev could still maintain his country’s strategic ties with Russia, so he might arguably have image-related motives for unexpectedly jeopardizing them.

To explain, his decision to stir up trouble with Russia might be partially meant to cement his standing among the Central Asian members of the Turkic bloc that Ankara seeks to assemble on the basis of the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS). By spinning his moves as “standing up to Russia”, he could be trying to inspire them to follow his lead in future disputes with it. If successful, then the influence that he obtains over them could help prevent Azerbaijan from becoming Turkiye’s junior partner in the OTS.

Aliyev is also already popular with the broader Muslim World (“Ummah”) beyond Central Asia after expelling Armenia’s occupying forces from his country. Azerbaijan’s example of “standing up to Russia” could thus inspire other medium and lesser Muslim powers to do the same vis-à-vis other Great Powers. Through these means, his personal influence and Azerbaijan’s national influence could spread further across the Eastern Hemisphere, which he might expect to bring him and his country more benefits.

Another image-related motive might be connected with the rest of the Global South’s perception of Azerbaijan. His country chaired the Non-Aligned Movement from 2019-2023, which catapulted its influence among this diverse community of countries. He might therefore have also intended to have Azerbaijan serve as an example for all of them too by spinning his latest moves as embodying the principles that they all adhere to in order to maximally expand Azerbaijan’s influence and his own.

The irreplaceable role that Azerbaijan plays for turbocharging Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power at the expense of Russian influence in Central Asia could pair with the influence that he wants to obtain across the entire non-West to facilitate a rapprochement with the US and the EU. They exploited the Second Karabakh War to accuse him of “ethnic cleansing” as part of a ploy to turn Armenia into their bastion of regional influence but might soon embrace him now that he’s “standing up to Russia”.

These motives suggest that Aliyev expects to rise to global stardom by stirring up highly publicized trouble with Russia. Apart from this ambition, he might have also been misled by Erdogan into believing that Azerbaijan will benefit from opening the West’s “second front” against Russia, albeit only a political one (for now at least). This might backfire if the Global South perceives him to be a Western proxy and Russia intensifies its asymmetrical responses, however, so it’s best for him to relent before it’s too late.