All Key Players Have Their Reasons For Excluding Poland From The Ukrainian Peace Process
Their snubbing discredits the image that Poland wants to cultivate of a former Great Power that’s finally reviving its long-lost status as a European leader.
Politico reported that “Poland fumes about being cut out of Ukraine peace talks” after it wasn’t invited to the recent meeting in London and the prior one in Geneva. The former included France, Germany, the UK (the E3), and Ukraine while the latter included them and the US. Poland’s absence was conspicuous since it’s spent the world’s largest percentage of its GDP on Ukraine (4.91%, most of which went to refugees), donated its entire stockpile to it, and plays a pivotal military logistics role in the conflict.
Poles are therefore upset that their country is still excluded from the Ukrainian peace process (the first time was the Berlin Summit in October 2024) despite all that it’s done for that neighboring country. For as difficult as it may be for them and their officials to accept, however, there are sensible reasons behind this from the perspective of all key players whose interests curiously intersect on this issue. Poland is fiercely anti-Russian, which explains why Moscow refuses to discuss the conflict’s settlement with it.
As for the US, it’s finally serious about reaching a grand compromise with Russia for ending their proxy war and heralding a world-changing “New Détente”, which is why it too doesn’t want Poland to obstruct this outcome through involvement in the peace process. At the same time, “Poland Will Play A Central Role In Advancing The US’ National Security Strategy In Europe”, but only as the US’ junior partner who’s forced to operate within the new European security architecture that Trump and Putin plan to build.
The German-led EU’s interests are different since Germany and Poland are in a zero-sum rivalry that was described from their perspectives here and here. Ukraine is one of the countries within which they’re competing as explained here in late 2023 so it follows that Germany wants to exclude Poland from discussions about its conflict’s endgame. This is achieved by leveraging its influence over the EU to ensure that Poland isn’t invited to E3 summits (the latest one in Berlin was meant to be more inclusive).
Regarding Ukraine itself, ties with Poland have been troubled in recent years, so Kiev doesn’t want to reward Warsaw with the prestige associated with participation in the peace process. For these reasons, each in pursuit of their self-interests, Russia, the US, the German-led EU, and Ukraine have thus far tacitly agreed to exclude Poland from these discussions. Their snubbing discredits the image that Poland wants to cultivate of a former Great Power that’s finally reviving its long-lost status as a European leader.
About that, while Poland veritably has the potential to restore its historic role in the region, it can only do so with US support since Warsaw doesn’t have the sway over patriotic-nationalist parties that Washington does for rallying them all against the EU’s federalization plans. Moreover, “Poland’s Military-Industrial Complex Is Embarrassingly Underdeveloped”, with even Politico describing its defense industry as a “dwarf” in a recent article. Poland therefore simply doesn’t have the same influence as the E3 does.
Seeing as how Poland isn’t (yet?) a Great Power (again) and would be a hollow one if it ever (re)attains this status, it shouldn’t act too big for its britches by expecting a seat at the table alongside Great Powers like France, Germany, and the UK. The E3 isn’t even able to exert influence over this process despite their best efforts so there’s no way that much less influential Poland could succeed where they failed. The US and Ukraine also have their reasons for excluding it too, which altogether bruises Poland’s national ego.
Poland resembles a geopolitical kindergarten pupil - a state that, after 1989, never truly crossed a certain threshold of professionalism and instead remained somewhat clumsy and immature. Its elites came to believe that merely joining the Western bloc automatically meant “being someone important.” That illusion has directly led to today’s marginalization, despite the fact that Poland’s propaganda presents the country as at least a leader of Central Europe.
In reality, my country holds no real cards. It has been outplayed in this war on every level, thoroughly exploited by Ukraine, and reduced to a role in which the West sees it as errand boys rather than a serious partner. Russia, meanwhile, views Poland as an irritating neighbor - arrogant, intrusive, and meddling in matters it neither understands nor can influence.
Even Poland’s natural partners within the Visegrád Group can clearly see that Warsaw is now the only one refusing to adapt to the broader geopolitical shift in approaches toward the war in Ukraine. As a result, any changes on the international stage - regardless of their direction - are likely to be unfavorable for Poland.
I discuss this dynamic in much greater detail in my article, which I invite you to read if you’re interested:
https://open.substack.com/pub/ceap2040/p/poland-chose-the-rampart-role-and
Have to say, I've missed something somewhere because I dont see any evidence of anything but US and Ukr negotiating with themselves. When did any progress with Mr Putin occur?