America Is Preconditioning The Public For More Meddling In Myanmar

America might more formally intervene in the latest phase of Myanmar’s decades-long civil war in the coming future in order to save the anti-government rebels from the Tatmadaw’s arguably forthcoming counteroffensive. The “democratic” and national security pretexts that are being created through the latest narrative developments point to this being the end goal of that operation, which might be commenced sooner than most observers expect depending on what happens.

“Myanmar’s Three-Year-Long Conflict Isn’t As Simple As It Seems At First Glance”, the complex nuances of which were detailed in the preceding hyperlinked analysis from early February, which readers should review before proceeding if they’re not already familiar with it. The relevance to the present piece is that the US just made a major announcement last week aimed at preconditioning the public to expect more meddling in the latest phase of Myanmar’s decades-long civil war.

The Justice Department charged an accused Yakuza boss who was detained nearly two years back in April 2022 with allegedly trying to traffic nuclear materials from Myanmar to Iran in exchange for arms that he sought to procure for some of its armed ethno-regional groups. It’s already suspicious enough that they waited so long to charge him with this crime and it’s even shadier that they’re now implicating some of the same organizations that they tacitly back against the military (known as the Tatmadaw).

That’s not to say that there isn’t any truth to these charges since the evidence from the Justice Department’s abovementioned hyperlinked report is compelling, but just that the timing and details raise questions about the US’ real intent. The larger context within which this major announcement was made concerns the recent Chinese-brokered ceasefire, which has thus far held but whose future can’t of course be taken for granted.

CNN reported that the Tatmadaw is now enforcing its 2010 mandatory conscription law against resistant civilians, and they also linked to two of their prior articles about this conflict to inform their audience of the rebels’ unprecedented offensive last fall and their allied Myanmar-based Chinese phone scam gangs that rely on modern-day slaves. These three pieces coupled with the latest charges are aimed at preconditioning the public to expect more meddling on “democracy” and national security pretexts.

The Tatmadaw is clearly preparing for a counteroffensive, but the US wants to discredit its efforts, hence CNN’s sob story about them finally enforcing their mandatory conscription law despite not raising any gripes about Ukraine doing the same even though many more of its own people have been killed. Meanwhile, linking to news about the now-frozen rebel offensive is meant to imply that “the beginning of the end” has started as their article explicitly declares citing one of these groups’ commanders.

In an attempt to feign neutrality, that outlet also raised awareness about the threat posed by Myanmar-based Chinese phone scammers and reminded their audience of this in the new context of the Justice Department’s charges related to nuclear and weapons trafficking on behalf of some groups. The impression that one is supposed to obtain from these information warfare products is that the rebels are good but there are a few bad apples among them just like there were in Libya, Syria, and elsewhere.

Since their cause is supposedly a noble one because they’re fighting for democracy against their dictatorship, as the latest phase of this decades-long civil war is popularly framed by the Mainstream Media, they deserve to directly receive comprehensive American support. Furthermore, precisely because some bad apples are among them, this should be formalized as soon as possible in order to achieve some influence over these groups’ activities and stop those that pose national security threats.

The reader should be reminded that there’s a degree of truth to everything that’s being put forth at this time: the alleged Yakuza boss might very well be guilty as charged, some people don’t want to be conscripted into the Tatmadaw, and foreign phone scammers there that rely on modern-day slaves are a threat to many societies. Both sides are also likely preparing for an end to the ceasefire, whether it’ll be broken on their own initiative or their opponent’s, so the cold peace likely won’t last for much longer.

Anticipating this, the US probably timed their charges to create the pretext for more formally intervening in this conflict via direct support for the rebels on “democratic” and national security pretexts, particularly with respect to establishing some oversight of their activities after this nuclear scandal. The reason why the charges weren’t made earlier is because the rebels previously didn’t stand any chance of success until their unprecedented (and likely Western-aided) offensive last fall changed all of that.

Had the charges been made public before the rebels gained so much ground, then public opinion could have decisively turned against them, which wouldn’t mean that they’d then favor the Tatmadaw but just that they could become indifferent towards this conflict since both sides would be deemed as bad. They’re now inclined to believe that there are a few bad apples among them, but that this necessitates formal US involvement in order to monitor the operations carried out for this “noble cause”.

Forcibly conscripting people to fend off a so-called “invasion from a neighboring dictatorship” like supposedly “democratic” Ukraine is doing is considered qualitatively different in the public’s mind than an Asian “dictatorship” doing the same to defeat “democratic freedom fighters”. This perception explains the double standards towards those two countries’ identical conscription policies and accounts for why the public is inclined to oppose Myanmar’s on a “democratic” pretext that reinforces the larger narrative.

This insight strongly suggests that America might more formally intervene in the latest phase of Myanmar’s decades-long civil war in the coming future in order to save the anti-government rebels from the Tatmadaw’s arguably forthcoming counteroffensive. The “democratic” and national security pretexts that are being created through the latest narrative developments point to this being the end goal of that operation, which might be commenced sooner than most observers expect depending on what happens.