It’s likely that the externally backed regime changes in Bangladesh and Nepal were part of a larger plot by the US in collusion with its “NGO” and local allies to geopolitically re-engineer South Asia in such a way as to maximally pressure India into subordinating itself to the US.
In the light of what just happened to Iran this seems all the more plausible. And I wonder what beset Russia to crack down on social media right now and in the way they do.
No goverment is blameless, corruption and self-enrichment will always be a factor societies have to deal with. Not least because it can be exploited by hostile powers in this frequently demonstrated way. So I would expect any goverment to wield utmost transparency and integrity as the weapon of choice. Using social media for the purpose instead of banning them.
Iran used the possibility of cutting off the internet as a last resort. People understood. So Russia feels cornered now that much?
My view is that restrictions on foreign social media and messaging apps has more to do with preventing those companies from obtaining Russians' data for use in better propaganda campaigns, etc., than the pretext of deleting disgusting sexual content (which of course exists and is legitimate).
As for the present restrictions, I don't believe that they have to do with any impending Color Revolution or "indigenous grassroots protest" scenario as folks here generally accept whatever happens due to the widespread cultural trait of "avos", also known as "fatalism" in the West (but which has drawbacks that I'm critical of in other contexts):
In this context, the resultant apathy disincentivizes folks from breaking the law by participating in unauthorized protests, but in other contexts, it results in what I genuinely consider to be carelessness, laziness, and irresponsibility, especially when it comes to detecting and taking seriously latent threats (it's always "someone else's responsibility").
"than the pretext of deleting disgusting sexual content"
So this is the explanation Roskomnadzor gives? I couldnt find any information on the international web, western msm obviously exploit this in the usual way and the amc is keeping mum. And my Russian is too bad for an independent search.
I know, Ukraine uses Telegram to bully Russians into acts of terror, so I assumed this might be a reason, though I doubted that the preventive success makes up for the resulting antagonizing of citizens. That's where the 'avos' you mention might come in. Do you think, younger people who are the most vulnerable for regime change share this trait as much?
The official reason is that these platforms refuse to delete prohibited sexual content and/or store their users' data entirely within Russia.
As for "avos" and younger folks, those who are very passionately against the government left in 2022.
I don't think there there's a critical mass of them left who'd be able to carry out serious sustained unrest. The state would crush them if they tried in any case.
The Americans seem to have the ability of organizing uproar and regime change wherever they want and whenever. A snap of the fingers is all it takes, it seems. How do they do that?
We may safely assume that a part of the troublemakers are paid professionals, but my two cents are that the successes of these color revolutions have also something to do with the charm that the American way of life exercises on a certain segment of humanity. For many young people all over the world, the USA simply stands for "fun" (something which not only girls want to have). There are plenty of young individuals, of the shallow kind, who think that life is all about that, and who feel called upon to take to the streets whenever they think that it will result in a more "American" life.
Whether or not the American way of life is actually as "funny" as assumed by these superficial characters is another question. Be it as it may, one thing is sure: nobody can beat the Americans when it comes to selling themselves. Certainly not the Russians or the Germans.
Absolutely, I've always emphasized that Color Revolutions exploit crowd psychology for tactical attacks and mass psychology to reduce resistance to the rolling coup and then facilitate acceptance of it afterwards.
Many average folks who participate in the unrest, regardless of the form if takes (genuinely peaceful protests, riots, etc.), usually aren't "in on" anything, only a very small core and a slightly larger number of cohorts are.
There are also genuinely indigenous factors involved as for why people already dislike their government and want change, whether that's due to poor policies, perceptions of unfairness, or the appeal of foreign (social, political, and/or economic) models.
The targeted state therefore has the responsibility to regularly deliver tangible results to its people as best as it can under whatever circumstances it's in while flexibly re-negotiating the social contract with genuinely grassroots movements when needed.
There's been a tendency for governments to dishonestly absolve themselves of all responsibility for Color Revolutions and blame everything on some ridiculously large number of "foreign agents", however, which is self-discrediting and politically desperate.
Sometimes targeted states require advisory (as in how best to deliver tangible dividends to their people and/or reshape perceptions in favor of the state) and even at times tactical (as in riot control) support from friendly countries.
That's where Russia has come in for some in the past, but as proven by the Syrian precedent, hard power alone isn't sufficient for sustainably securing the state if the host state is unwilling to implement the reforms required for quelling genuine unrest.
As we see now in hindsight, the Assad Government was rotten to the core and allowed the state to rot even worse under its "leadership", which made a fool out of Russia after that house of cards quickly fell apart in late 2024 despite all that Russia earlier did to help it.
It was my impression that Russia got wise on who to support makes sense and where they have a lost cause. It will be interesting to see how matters evolve with respect to Cuba and Venezuela.
They talk a good talk, but their track record in recent years suggests that top policymakers still indulge in "wishful thinking" and formulate policies accordingly, hence the spree of setbacks in recent years that might have been averted or mitigated had latent threats been acknowledged and relevant policies formulated.
As for Cuba, what can they really do? The US is blockading the island's oil imports. I very much doubt that Russia is going to break the blockade. The only scenario in which it could happen is with the US' approval to alleviate some of the humanitarian consequences for averting a large-scale exodus of "boat people" to Florida ahead of the midterms.
Even then, the US could just send its own humanitarian supplies, including minimal oil exports, which it's already done. It's also allowed Mexico to send some supplies too, but the quality of living in Cuba right now after the Maduro operation is even much worse than before (and it was already pretty rough).
Segueing into Venezuela, Lavrov himself recently complained that Russian companies are now being forced out of there and recently told the Duma about his ministry's interpretation of a new US license (which I wrote about today) prohibiting the US' Venezuelan partners from business with Russia, Cuba, and several other countries:
Its in the book Tom Sawyer by Mark Twain. Tom is a an american rural boy. He is ordered to paint the fence, but he doesnt like to. So when the first of his buddies comes along and sneers at him painting, he says " Eh, no need to sneer, its a privilege to get the chance to paint a fence. How often do you get the opportunity?" And talks the buddy into paying him an apple or some such, I dont remember, to let the buddy do some painting. And so on with any of his comrades passing by.
Its all about how people perceive things and that you can sell everything as long as you have no qualms about exploiting naiveté.
America will never learn to leave well enough alone, or engage in real diplomacy & dialogue to enable positive outcomes. It's all coming back to bite them now. . . Gaza, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela & Cuba just to name a few. As well, the absolute internal "shit storm" that Trumpty Dumpty and his 'Project 2025' minions have embarked upon will play out badly for America and Europe over the next x3 years. . . brace yourselves, fasten your seatbelts and make sure your trays are in the upright position, we're in for some serious turbulence ! 😢
There is little reason that Israelis would be enamored of the new, more Islamist government in Bangladesh. Particularly as the new government will be more likely to fund anti-israeli militancy and engage in anti-India subversion.
USA - maybe different. I guess for them China is too big. So Russia and India are more likely choice enemy targets. Not that being schoolyard bully makes much geopolitical sense.
In the light of what just happened to Iran this seems all the more plausible. And I wonder what beset Russia to crack down on social media right now and in the way they do.
No goverment is blameless, corruption and self-enrichment will always be a factor societies have to deal with. Not least because it can be exploited by hostile powers in this frequently demonstrated way. So I would expect any goverment to wield utmost transparency and integrity as the weapon of choice. Using social media for the purpose instead of banning them.
Iran used the possibility of cutting off the internet as a last resort. People understood. So Russia feels cornered now that much?
My view is that restrictions on foreign social media and messaging apps has more to do with preventing those companies from obtaining Russians' data for use in better propaganda campaigns, etc., than the pretext of deleting disgusting sexual content (which of course exists and is legitimate).
As for the present restrictions, I don't believe that they have to do with any impending Color Revolution or "indigenous grassroots protest" scenario as folks here generally accept whatever happens due to the widespread cultural trait of "avos", also known as "fatalism" in the West (but which has drawbacks that I'm critical of in other contexts):
https://www.rbth.com/education/332624-russian-avos
In this context, the resultant apathy disincentivizes folks from breaking the law by participating in unauthorized protests, but in other contexts, it results in what I genuinely consider to be carelessness, laziness, and irresponsibility, especially when it comes to detecting and taking seriously latent threats (it's always "someone else's responsibility").
"than the pretext of deleting disgusting sexual content"
So this is the explanation Roskomnadzor gives? I couldnt find any information on the international web, western msm obviously exploit this in the usual way and the amc is keeping mum. And my Russian is too bad for an independent search.
I know, Ukraine uses Telegram to bully Russians into acts of terror, so I assumed this might be a reason, though I doubted that the preventive success makes up for the resulting antagonizing of citizens. That's where the 'avos' you mention might come in. Do you think, younger people who are the most vulnerable for regime change share this trait as much?
The official reason is that these platforms refuse to delete prohibited sexual content and/or store their users' data entirely within Russia.
As for "avos" and younger folks, those who are very passionately against the government left in 2022.
I don't think there there's a critical mass of them left who'd be able to carry out serious sustained unrest. The state would crush them if they tried in any case.
The Americans seem to have the ability of organizing uproar and regime change wherever they want and whenever. A snap of the fingers is all it takes, it seems. How do they do that?
We may safely assume that a part of the troublemakers are paid professionals, but my two cents are that the successes of these color revolutions have also something to do with the charm that the American way of life exercises on a certain segment of humanity. For many young people all over the world, the USA simply stands for "fun" (something which not only girls want to have). There are plenty of young individuals, of the shallow kind, who think that life is all about that, and who feel called upon to take to the streets whenever they think that it will result in a more "American" life.
Whether or not the American way of life is actually as "funny" as assumed by these superficial characters is another question. Be it as it may, one thing is sure: nobody can beat the Americans when it comes to selling themselves. Certainly not the Russians or the Germans.
Absolutely, I've always emphasized that Color Revolutions exploit crowd psychology for tactical attacks and mass psychology to reduce resistance to the rolling coup and then facilitate acceptance of it afterwards.
Many average folks who participate in the unrest, regardless of the form if takes (genuinely peaceful protests, riots, etc.), usually aren't "in on" anything, only a very small core and a slightly larger number of cohorts are.
There are also genuinely indigenous factors involved as for why people already dislike their government and want change, whether that's due to poor policies, perceptions of unfairness, or the appeal of foreign (social, political, and/or economic) models.
The targeted state therefore has the responsibility to regularly deliver tangible results to its people as best as it can under whatever circumstances it's in while flexibly re-negotiating the social contract with genuinely grassroots movements when needed.
There's been a tendency for governments to dishonestly absolve themselves of all responsibility for Color Revolutions and blame everything on some ridiculously large number of "foreign agents", however, which is self-discrediting and politically desperate.
Sometimes targeted states require advisory (as in how best to deliver tangible dividends to their people and/or reshape perceptions in favor of the state) and even at times tactical (as in riot control) support from friendly countries.
That's where Russia has come in for some in the past, but as proven by the Syrian precedent, hard power alone isn't sufficient for sustainably securing the state if the host state is unwilling to implement the reforms required for quelling genuine unrest.
As we see now in hindsight, the Assad Government was rotten to the core and allowed the state to rot even worse under its "leadership", which made a fool out of Russia after that house of cards quickly fell apart in late 2024 despite all that Russia earlier did to help it.
It was my impression that Russia got wise on who to support makes sense and where they have a lost cause. It will be interesting to see how matters evolve with respect to Cuba and Venezuela.
They talk a good talk, but their track record in recent years suggests that top policymakers still indulge in "wishful thinking" and formulate policies accordingly, hence the spree of setbacks in recent years that might have been averted or mitigated had latent threats been acknowledged and relevant policies formulated.
As for Cuba, what can they really do? The US is blockading the island's oil imports. I very much doubt that Russia is going to break the blockade. The only scenario in which it could happen is with the US' approval to alleviate some of the humanitarian consequences for averting a large-scale exodus of "boat people" to Florida ahead of the midterms.
Even then, the US could just send its own humanitarian supplies, including minimal oil exports, which it's already done. It's also allowed Mexico to send some supplies too, but the quality of living in Cuba right now after the Maduro operation is even much worse than before (and it was already pretty rough).
Segueing into Venezuela, Lavrov himself recently complained that Russian companies are now being forced out of there and recently told the Duma about his ministry's interpretation of a new US license (which I wrote about today) prohibiting the US' Venezuelan partners from business with Russia, Cuba, and several other countries:
https://tass.com/politics/2082049
You know the story of Tom Sawyer painting the fence? Or rather, having it painted?
Tells you all one needs to know about humanity and especially the WASPy US brand.
No, I don't know that story. Please, tell it!
Its in the book Tom Sawyer by Mark Twain. Tom is a an american rural boy. He is ordered to paint the fence, but he doesnt like to. So when the first of his buddies comes along and sneers at him painting, he says " Eh, no need to sneer, its a privilege to get the chance to paint a fence. How often do you get the opportunity?" And talks the buddy into paying him an apple or some such, I dont remember, to let the buddy do some painting. And so on with any of his comrades passing by.
Its all about how people perceive things and that you can sell everything as long as you have no qualms about exploiting naiveté.
Spot on, I would say. (BTW, if American rural boys are already that smart, one wonders how their more seasoned urban comrades must be)
Very interesting. Thanks!
This echoes from Maiden to Minnesota…
America will never learn to leave well enough alone, or engage in real diplomacy & dialogue to enable positive outcomes. It's all coming back to bite them now. . . Gaza, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela & Cuba just to name a few. As well, the absolute internal "shit storm" that Trumpty Dumpty and his 'Project 2025' minions have embarked upon will play out badly for America and Europe over the next x3 years. . . brace yourselves, fasten your seatbelts and make sure your trays are in the upright position, we're in for some serious turbulence ! 😢
Thank you
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
So did Bangledash vote in a US israel loving patzi?
There is little reason that Israelis would be enamored of the new, more Islamist government in Bangladesh. Particularly as the new government will be more likely to fund anti-israeli militancy and engage in anti-India subversion.
USA - maybe different. I guess for them China is too big. So Russia and India are more likely choice enemy targets. Not that being schoolyard bully makes much geopolitical sense.