An Ultra-Nationalist Government In Nepal Might Wage Hybrid War On India With Bangladesh

The possible rise of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah to the premiership could see this Nepali ultra-nationalist coordinating anti-Indian Hybrid War operations with like-minded allies in Bangladesh.

It was earlier assessed that “The US Might Try To Manipulate Nepal Into Weaponizing Its Revived Border Dispute With India” after newly ousted former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli brought this issue back to the national forefront late last month. The student-driven riots that then resulted in his resignation, which were arguably a front for ultra-nationalist extremists backed by the West, might now lead to Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah becoming the next premier given their support for him filling this role.

OSINT Updates reminded their audience that Shah is anti-India after he installed a map of Greater Nepal in his office that lays claim to India’s territory, threatened to ban Bollywood films in the capital amidst a scandal a few years, and criticized Indian cultural influence in Nepal. To oversimplify this sensitive subject, India and Nepal are part of the same civilization just like Russia and Ukraine are, and as it turns out, Nepali and Ukrainian ultra-nationalists play similarly adversarial roles vis-à-vis India and Russia too.

The map that Shah installed in his office goes far beyond the claims that Oli just revived since it includes land to the south and east of Nepal’s present borders that Kathmandu lost to the Brits in 1816. The Indian state of Sikkim is majority-Gorkha (Nepali Indian) while two districts in northern West Bengal have enough of them that they were able to form the “Gorkhaland Territorial Administration” in 2012. Some are still unhappy, however, and demand their own state within India carved out of northern West Bengal.

To be clear, most Gorkhas are loyal citizens, but historical, demographic, and territorial factors can be exploited by an ultra-nationalist government in Nepal and the new ultra-nationalist one in Bangladesh to radicalize a minority of them into anti-Indian Hybrid Warriors. Shah is expected to pursue this goal with US support if he becomes premier, which could foreseeably receive Bangladeshi backing (via both bilateral coordination and trilateral via the US) given its own informally revived claims against India:

* 22 December 2024: “A Provocative Map Shared By The Bangladeshi Leader’s Special Assistant Made Claims To India”

* 1 April 2025: “Does Bangladesh Have Regional Integration Or Hybrid War Plans For Northeast India?”

* 5 May 2025: “Bangladesh Is Back At It Again With Another ‘Plausibly Deniable’ Territorial Claim To India”

Long-serving Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown in summer 2024 by student-driven riots that were proven to have been a front for ultra-nationalist extremists backed by the West, which was part of the US’ plot to derail India’s rise as a Great Power by containing it. It therefore compellingly appears that what just happened in Nepal was a remix of that regime change model for the same purpose but given a greater sense of urgency due to deteriorating Indo-US ties in recent months.

If a Bangladeshi-like anti-Indian ultra-nationalist government is soon installed in Nepal, then the stage would be set for them to coordinate their irredentist Hybrid War operations, which altogether aim to sever the narrow Siliguri Corridor (“Chicken’s Neck”) linking “mainland India” with its Northeast States. This region is known for its identity diversity and historical distance from India’s Hindu Civilization, which sparked decades of terrorist-separatist insurgencies that made it the country’s so-called “weakest link”.

As proven by the precedent of EuroMaidan, violent regime changes that lead to short-lived but very intense periods of anarchy pave the way for ultra-nationalists to rise to power on faux populist pretexts. Seeing as how Nepali ultra-nationalists play the same adversarial role vis-à-vis civilizationally fraternal India as Ukrainian ones do vis-à-vis civilizationally fraternal Russia, Nepal could swiftly become an “anti-India” just like Ukraine became an “anti-Russian” and be exploited by the US for similar Hybrid War ends.

Geographic factors place limits on this scenario, but Bangladeshi backing could overcome these obstacles if Dhaka hosts, trains, and arms (possibly with US aid) a newly created terrorist-separatist “Gorkhaland” movement in parallel with others targeting India’s Northeast. It’s premature to conclude with certainty that this will happen, let alone how events might then unfold, but what’s most important at this point is that India is aware of this threat and prepares accordingly just in case it materializes.