Analyzing The Leaked Bundeswehr Recording About Bombing The Crimean Bridge

The takeaway from this scandal is that elite elements within the Bundeswehr are serious about further embroiling their country in the Ukrainian Conflict despite the increasing risk of the West’s undeclared but limited hot war with Russia spiraling into World War III by miscalculation.

RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan was the first to report on Friday about Russia’s possession of a leaked Bundeswehr recording implicating the German Armed Forces in a plot to bomb the Crimean Bridge. The transcript and audio were subsequently released by Sputnik here. The German Defense Ministry then launched an investigation, after which national media cited sources to report that Berlin believes that the recording is indeed authentic and not an AI hoax.

It turns out that four Air Force personnel were involved in this scandalous conversation, two of whom are senior members such as the department head for operations and exercises and the Air Force Inspector, while the remaining two are employees at the Space Operations Center. They began by saying that they want to prepare for the possibility of Chancellor Olaf Scholz approving the shipment of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and questioning why he’s thus far blocked these deliveries.

Speculation about them simply not working was acknowledged but downplayed, with the conversation then shifting to ways in which Ukraine could fire these missiles if they receive them. They also referenced the methods employed by the British and French to deliver similar arms, but then they concluded that it’ll be difficult to dispatch them right away. Speeding up the shipment, they warned, could lead to errors in their use like “hit[ting] a kindergarten, and there will be civilian casualties again.”

Nevertheless, one of them suggested sending batches of missiles at five each, but then they wondered who’d pay for this and related production details. Another issue is training the Ukrainians, which could allegedly take three to four months and occur in Germany. Someone also suggested that the British could help with technical issues related to mounts and whatnot given their experience with this. Another important point is retaining plausible deniability the whole time in order to avoid uncomfortable optics.

To the surprise of no astute observer, someone remarked that “there are numerous people [in Ukraine] in civilian attire who speak with an American accent”, thus indirectly confirming the presence of Americans inside the conflict zone who they said could help Ukrainians operate the Taurus missiles. Something else that was interesting about this conversation was one of these officials hinting that Germany feels pressured to follow France and the UK’s lead by sending its own long-range missiles too.

They then started talking about hitting the Crimean Bridge, perhaps after recalling the British Storm Shadows’ role in last summer’s attack, concluding that around 20 missiles might be needed to destroy it. The reason why they’re interested in targeting that piece of civilian infrastructure isn’t because of its military-strategic importance, which someone said is no longer as much as before due to the ground corridor that’s been established these past two years, but because of its political significance.

In the event that the “initial task” is only to hit ammo depots instead of the Crimean Bridge, someone noted, everything can proceed a lot faster. They also said that “The longer they take to make a decision, the longer it will take us to implement it. We need to break everything down into stages. Start with the simple first, and then move on to the complex. Or we can ask the British if they can support us at the initial stage, and have them take on the planning issues?”

Reflecting on these main points from mid-February’s secret recording that Berlin reportedly believes is authentic, it can be assessed that the initial reaction here about the Bundeswehr going behind Scholz’s back was accurate since they’re already making detailed plans without his approval. They also indirectly confirmed the presence of American, British, and French troops on Ukrainian soil, who are advising that country and directly helping it utilize their foreign-supplied arms against Russia.

What few observers have yet to draw attention to, however, is the remark about how “there might be an error in its use, the missile might hit a kindergarten, and there will be civilian casualties again” if the timeframe is sped up for delivering these missiles before the Ukrainians are ready to operate them. This could be interpreted as tacit admission that Ukraine not only hit civilian sites before on accident, but that this was partially the West’s fault for giving them arms that they weren’t properly trained to use.

It's not mentioned in the conversation, but the context suggests that the West’s solution was to dispatch troops there like Scholz strongly implied last week that France and the UK have already done in connection with their own long-range missile shipments to Ukraine to assist with “target control”. The Air Force officials involved in mid-February’s secret recording didn’t allude to any interest in following suit, but it can’t be ruled out that they might either be allowed to or decide to do this unilaterally.

After all, they spent a lot of time discussing how Ukraine could use their missiles as soon as possible if the decision is made to send them, so they could either convince Scholz to dispatch troops there like France and the UK already did for this purpose or go on their own and make this a fait accompli. The dual pretext for either scenario is to reduce the chance of civilian casualties and deal damage to Russia (including political with respect to the Crimean Bridge) sooner rather than later.

The takeaway from this scandal is that elite elements within the Bundeswehr are serious about further embroiling their country in the Ukrainian Conflict despite the increasing risk of the West’s undeclared but limited hot war with Russia spiraling into World War III by miscalculation. The real threat to Germany therefore isn’t the left and right working together like the Washington Post fearmongered last April, but these powerful military figures who have no compunction about flirting with the apocalypse.