Analyzing The Russian Ambassador’s Latest Statements About Ethiopia

Ethiopia can always rely on Russia and vice versa since they’re one of each other’s oldest partners.

Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Evgeny Terekhin spoke to ENA during this week’s Russia-Ethiopia Business Forum in Addis, during which time he made some statements about his host country that are worth analyzing. In the order that they were shared in ENA’s report, he referenced Ethiopia’s peaceful quest for sea access by saying that “We understand that the absence of sea access is a very big problem for a country.” This shows that Russia doesn’t consider it to be aggressive or destabilizing, but normal.

He added that “This issue must be settled between the neighboring countries in a spirit of good neighborliness and dialogue, without external interference.” Being the world-class diplomat that he is, Terekhin didn’t directly mention neighboring Somalia’s saber-rattling over this issue or the recently formed Asmara Axis between that country, Egypt, and Eritrea against Ethiopia. Nevertheless, reading between the lines, he’s hinting that Egypt and Eritrea shouldn’t meddle in this dispute.

On a related note, he then told ENA that “We see Ethiopia as a nucleus of regional security, playing a decisive role in maintaining peace and security in this area.” This can be interpreted as him reaffirming that its Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland doesn’t destabilize the region. Rather, as was explained here at length when analyzing that agreement, it aims to stabilize the region by preemptively averting crises that could be caused by Ethiopia’s dependence on maritime logistics beyond its control.

Next, Ambassador Terekhin candidly admitted that “Our trade relationship has yet to reach the level of our political relationship” even though “Ethiopia has a longstanding tradition of friendship with Russia, built on mutual understanding and respect”, both of which are true. The reasons why bilateral trade hasn’t approached anywhere near its potential are beyond the scope of this analysis, but their over 125-year-long relations provide a solid basis for making up for lost time through their latest Business Forum.

Those who’d like to learn more about one of Russia’s oldest partnerships in the world can review this brief report here that was published last year by the Russian Academy of Sciences or this more detailed one here by the Russian International Affairs Council think tank. They illustrate the depth and strength of their relations, thus dispelling any speculation that Russia would ever turn against Ethiopia, such as in the scenario that Egypt or Eritrea made the expansion of their bilateral ties dependent on it doing so.

And finally, the last statement that Ambassador Terekhin shared with ENA was that “Addis Ababa, as the diplomatic capital of Africa, reflects Ethiopia's influential role not only within the African Union but also on the broader continent. For Russia, this makes Ethiopia a priority partner in economic and trade relations.” His description of Ethiopia as Russia’s “priority partner” can be interpreted as him reminding other regional countries of the privileged role that Ethiopia plays in Russia’s African grand strategy.

Chairman of the Coordination Committee on Economic Cooperation with African Countries (AFROCOM) Igor Morozov added further substance to the aforesaid assessment by telling ENA in a separate interview that “We opened here our continental office. From Ethiopia we have decided to enter other African countries and African markets.” He therefore essentially considers Ethiopia to be a nucleus of economic development and a gateway to the rest of the continent. No other country plays this role for Russia.

Reflecting on what was shared in this analysis, it’s clear that Russian-Ethiopian relations will continue strengthening due to their many mutual complementarities and their leaders’ shared multipolar vision. Ethiopia can always rely on Russia and vice versa since they’re one of each other’s oldest partners. With that in mind, Ethiopia might request Russia to help mitigate tensions with Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea over Somaliland given Moscow’s ties with all three, in which case they’d do well to listen to suggestions.