Analyzing Zelensky’s Fearmongering About Fall’s Next Russian-Belarusian Drills
He likely thought this might lead to Western troops deploying to Western Ukraine as a “deterrent”.
Zelensky fearmongered about the following scenario during a speech at late April’s 10th “Three Seas Initiative” Summit: “Look at Belarus – Russia is preparing something there this fall, using military drills as cover. That’s usually how they start a new attack. But where will it go? I don’t know. Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? God forbid! But we all need to be ready.” He was referring to fall’s next Russian-Belarusian drills, codenamed Zapad 2025, that’ll begin in Belarus in mid-September.
“Five Arguments Debunking Speculation About A Russian Invasion Of The Suwalki Corridor” were shared in the preceding hyperlinked analysis last month and should be read in connection with what Zelensky just suggested. Simply put, Russia has no reason to risk World War III, but the possibility of another offensive against Kiev from Belarus can’t be ruled out in principle. This could hypothetically complement the potential (North Korean-backed?) expansion of Russia’s ground campaign into other regions.
Nevertheless, it still remains unlikely due to Ukraine’s fortification of this frontier over what would by then have been the past 3,5 years since the start of Russia’s special operation, which included a Russian offensive against Kiev from Belarus. Not only is the element of surprise therefore gone unlike last time, but Russia and Belarus would be up against the whopping 120,000 Ukrainian troops that Lukashenko warned last summer are deployed along the border when justifying his own build-up back then.
What’s much more probable is that Zapad 2025 will just be an ordinary military exercise without any Russian forces crossing the Belarusian border into neighboring countries, especially NATO members, but with the new addition of Oreshnik and tactical nuclear drills. The purpose would be to deter a NATO and/or Ukrainian invasion of Belarus, which remains a tempting target for both, one that might become even more attractive to them if Western forces deploy to Western Ukraine without sparking a wider war.
In fact, it might be for the purpose of moving the needle in the direction of such a deployment that Zelensky fearmongered about another Russian offensive against Ukraine from Belarus, which he might have thought could convince policymakers to finally agree to this on the basis of “deterring Putin”. A related possibility is that he expected to manipulate them into legally guaranteeing the deployment of troops in that event via amendments to the security guarantees that they gave Ukraine last year.
The reason why there haven’t yet been any developments on this front is because Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 guarantees to NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine. So long as this policy remains in force, and it’s not expected to change even if Trump blames Putin for the possible collapse of their peace talks, no amount of fearmongering from Zelensky about a Russian attack against NATO members or Ukraine during fall’s Zapad 2025 will matter.
Therefore, the most that his unrealistic scenario forecast might result in is Poland and Lithuania exploiting his words to further justify their respective East Shield and Baltic Defence Line border projects, which are already generally popular among their populations anyhow so the positive impact will be nil. The bottom line is that Russia is unlikely to use Belarus as a launch pad for any cross-border military action during their upcoming drills so observers shouldn’t take his faux warning seriously.
From a Russian military view attacking Poland or the miniature Baltic States just simply does not make any sense. They are clearly focusing on gaining more Ukraine territory but their real dream is to take most of the country and/or cut off the flow of hardware from the West. While the Ukraine forces are slowly melting the Russian armies have major reserves they can play with. I see three possible major moves for this year:
1, An attack on Kharkiv as the city has a large Russian ethnic group.
2, A move on Odessa. If successful Ukraine becomes a landlocked nation, with all the attached economic and strategic disadvantages.
3, A cross border attack from Russia and possibly from Belarus as well at the same time. This move could add 200 or even more miles to the present frontline, stretching the Ukraine army and forcing them to move large numbers of soldiers to the North. This would clearly offer the possibility of undermining the whole of the Ukraine war effort without provoking a NATO entry there. Trump can sing his songs about ‘crazy Putin’ and the ‘Big Beautiful Golden Dome’ but nobody will send troops to any place across those borders where nukes will likely be dropping over their heads. Kiev is unlikely to be attacked because it is an oversized, difficult target.
It is also interesting to note that both China and Russia are under pressure presently over territorial issues where they are struggling to regain control of lands that were historically attached to them.
Zelensky is parroting anything the globalists tell him to. He has used every trick in the bag to move the needle attempting to gain more support from the US and anyone who will come to his aid. Seems to me these are the last screams of a dying administration or possibly a dying country. Europe and their support won’t be coming for years and the US loathe giving more aid to expand this war even with the minerals deal. I’m not sure Putin knows what his grand plan is right now. Strange time right now in the region from my viewpoint.