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Kennewick Man's avatar

From a Russian military view attacking Poland or the miniature Baltic States just simply does not make any sense. They are clearly focusing on gaining more Ukraine territory but their real dream is to take most of the country and/or cut off the flow of hardware from the West. While the Ukraine forces are slowly melting the Russian armies have major reserves they can play with. I see three possible major moves for this year:

1, An attack on Kharkiv as the city has a large Russian ethnic group.

2, A move on Odessa. If successful Ukraine becomes a landlocked nation, with all the attached economic and strategic disadvantages.

3, A cross border attack from Russia and possibly from Belarus as well at the same time. This move could add 200 or even more miles to the present frontline, stretching the Ukraine army and forcing them to move large numbers of soldiers to the North. This would clearly offer the possibility of undermining the whole of the Ukraine war effort without provoking a NATO entry there. Trump can sing his songs about ‘crazy Putin’ and the ‘Big Beautiful Golden Dome’ but nobody will send troops to any place across those borders where nukes will likely be dropping over their heads. Kiev is unlikely to be attacked because it is an oversized, difficult target.

It is also interesting to note that both China and Russia are under pressure presently over territorial issues where they are struggling to regain control of lands that were historically attached to them.

Feral Finster's avatar

Poland had no reason to attack the Gleiwitz radio transmitter, either, but the false flag gave the Nazis the pretext they wanted to attack Poland.

In his diary, Goebbels pointed out that, if Germany wins the war, nobody will care that the story was absurd. Samenif Germany lost.

The Americans and their acolytes have taken this to heart, for instance, the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

Michael Wachocki's avatar

I have felt from the beginning that Odessa is one of the main goals.

James Schwartz's avatar

Zelensky is parroting anything the globalists tell him to. He has used every trick in the bag to move the needle attempting to gain more support from the US and anyone who will come to his aid. Seems to me these are the last screams of a dying administration or possibly a dying country. Europe and their support won’t be coming for years and the US loathe giving more aid to expand this war even with the minerals deal. I’m not sure Putin knows what his grand plan is right now. Strange time right now in the region from my viewpoint.

Feral Finster's avatar

The poodles remain confident that the United States will not leave them hanging out to dry

They have precedent, for those who remember how The War On Libya started.

Nakayama's avatar

Let them build that "East Wall", the stronger the better. Estonia and Poland should devote 5% of their GDP to building these lines and their combat forces. Belarus does need to make a few defensive positions on its western side, as Chihuahua's actions can be unpredictable. I suspect the risk of Ukrainians attacking Belarus from the south is higher than the Poles attacking from the west. The "Prize", of course, is elsewhere.