Armenia’s Decision To Freeze Participation In The CSTO Was Predictable

Russia officially retains its mutual defense obligations to Armenia, and it’s unlikely that Moscow will kick Yerevan out of the bloc since its interests rest in persuading it to reconsider this move. They’ll likely be for naught though and its wayward partner is probably negotiating bilateral security pacts with France and the US right now as the first step towards eventually joining NATO.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan told France 24 last week that “We have now in practical terms frozen our participation in [the CSTO]. As for what comes next, we shall have to see." He quickly clarified that there’s no discussion at present over closing Russia’s base in Gyumri, however, which he said was subject to another treaty. This development was predictable since he came to power on an anti-Russian platform, and while softening it before 2020, he doubled down on that stance after the 2020 war.

France and the US have been trying to encourage him to defect from that Russian-led security bloc since then, and he ramped up his rhetoric in that direction after last September’s one-day anti-terrorist operation saw Azerbaijan liberate the rest of its previously occupied territory. Armenia is now in a geostrategic grey zone since it hasn’t formally suspended participation in the CSTO, which could immediately open it up to an Azeri and/or Turkish attack, but it’s practically no longer involved in it.

Nevertheless, Russia officially retains its mutual defense obligations to Armenia, and it’s unlikely that Moscow will kick Yerevan out of the bloc since its interests rest in persuading it to reconsider this move. They’ll likely be for naught though and its wayward partner is probably negotiating bilateral security pacts with France and the US right now as the first step towards eventually joining NATO. These speculative efforts could culminate in inviting those countries to station troops on its territory.

Doing so permanently would be a violation of the CSTO’s terms since there’s no way that all members, particularly Russia, would agree to this. Even so, Armenia has already hosted a so-called “EU observation mission”, which didn’t result in Russia threatening to kick it out of the CSTO for violating the spirit of these aforesaid terms in principle. A similarly such temporary deployment of those two’s troops is therefore possible, as is the scenario of a permanent presence in order to provoke Russia.

With or without boots on the ground, France and/or the US could also sign an agreement with Armenia modeled off of the American-Swedish one from December that allows them to use its bases and store military equipment there. The purpose behind clinching some sort of security deal with either or both of those two is to deter an Azeri and/or Turkish attack once Armenia inevitably leaves the CSTO or is kicked out. The writing is on the wall and that country’s departure from this bloc appears to be inevitable.

“Lavrov Warned Armenia Against Ceding Its National Security To NATO” since the bloc can’t be trusted with ensuring that country’s defense like Russia can, yet Pashinyan has been convinced into thinking otherwise, which is the basis upon which he’s commencing this geostrategic pivot. If NATO exploits Armenia to destabilize Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye like it exploited Ukraine against Russia, however, then those two might then carry out their own special operation to put an end to these threats.