Armenia might have to accept the return of the ~200,000 Azeris who fled during the chaotic Soviet collapse (and the descendants), grant them equal language rights, teach in schools that they consider Armenia to be “Western Azerbaijan”, and possibly agree to a Schengen-like deal with Azerbaijan.
Vassal state here we come fellow Armenians, the IMF sure will do us a great loan package. Russia will be a good business and continue to supply us with reactor fuel while we wait 10 years or more for the on paper small US modular reactors come to fruition. What could go wrong.
There was a Tirkiye massacre of Armenians. Isn't Armenia concerned about what the Ottomans did to them? The Russians are their protectors. Russia will defend a Christan Armenis form a Muslim Turkiye. America;s concern os to weaken Rssia's southern border.
For undeniable historic reasons it is difficult to contemplate any form of rapprochement between Armenian citizens and the current government of Turkeye. Americans have no awareness of cultural sensitivity in this matter in fact many are genocide deniers by default.
Georgian elite captured, country used as a baton to hit Russia - baton breaks. Red lines drawn.
Ukraine elite captured, country misused as baton to beat Russia - red lines ignored, Ukraine to suffer damage it may not recover from in 100 years.
However violently and illegally Russia declared and enforced its red lines (like other great powers), you ignore their security interests at great risk.
Ultimately Russia used the frozen conflicts mode and local elite corruption to control Armenia and the Caucasus, never fully "saving" Armenia- just keeping it secure enough while using Yerevan to needle the Turks and Azeris. Religion counts for nothing in geopolitics, people operating at such levels of cynicism are without God.
It seems to me that the best thing for Armenia to do is switch leaders, declare neutrality and re-engage Ruasia while reforming their deeply corrupted state to better endure foreign influence and interference. Can't see the Armenians bowing to Turkification again.
Armenia has NO strategic depth and ZERO margin for error, especially after the Karabakh debacle. They knew for decades that they needed to do a land for peace deal with the Azeris, giving back occupied regions in exchange for Karabakh autonomy. Who was preventing them, why wasn’t Moscow encouraging them? Because frozen conflicts provide leverage. Armenia’s only hope seems to be Iran or Russia intervening if the Turks/Azeris try to conquer Zanzegur, but hope is not a viable strategy. Might as well lock yourselves in the churches and wait to be burned alive again.
The current generation of Armenian rulers want admission to The Club, even if they will ever only be junior members. Armenia is of secondary concern at best.
Vassal state here we come fellow Armenians, the IMF sure will do us a great loan package. Russia will be a good business and continue to supply us with reactor fuel while we wait 10 years or more for the on paper small US modular reactors come to fruition. What could go wrong.
The elites will prosper, and that is all that matters.
It needn't be this way but yes I agree that will be the outcome unless a black Swan event was to occur and create unrest on a large scale.
There was a Tirkiye massacre of Armenians. Isn't Armenia concerned about what the Ottomans did to them? The Russians are their protectors. Russia will defend a Christan Armenis form a Muslim Turkiye. America;s concern os to weaken Rssia's southern border.
For undeniable historic reasons it is difficult to contemplate any form of rapprochement between Armenian citizens and the current government of Turkeye. Americans have no awareness of cultural sensitivity in this matter in fact many are genocide deniers by default.
Georgian elite captured, country used as a baton to hit Russia - baton breaks. Red lines drawn.
Ukraine elite captured, country misused as baton to beat Russia - red lines ignored, Ukraine to suffer damage it may not recover from in 100 years.
However violently and illegally Russia declared and enforced its red lines (like other great powers), you ignore their security interests at great risk.
Ultimately Russia used the frozen conflicts mode and local elite corruption to control Armenia and the Caucasus, never fully "saving" Armenia- just keeping it secure enough while using Yerevan to needle the Turks and Azeris. Religion counts for nothing in geopolitics, people operating at such levels of cynicism are without God.
It seems to me that the best thing for Armenia to do is switch leaders, declare neutrality and re-engage Ruasia while reforming their deeply corrupted state to better endure foreign influence and interference. Can't see the Armenians bowing to Turkification again.
They won't do any of that, for the Armenian rulers crave American carrot and fear American stick.
Armenia has NO strategic depth and ZERO margin for error, especially after the Karabakh debacle. They knew for decades that they needed to do a land for peace deal with the Azeris, giving back occupied regions in exchange for Karabakh autonomy. Who was preventing them, why wasn’t Moscow encouraging them? Because frozen conflicts provide leverage. Armenia’s only hope seems to be Iran or Russia intervening if the Turks/Azeris try to conquer Zanzegur, but hope is not a viable strategy. Might as well lock yourselves in the churches and wait to be burned alive again.
The current generation of Armenian rulers want admission to The Club, even if they will ever only be junior members. Armenia is of secondary concern at best.
If Pashinyan remains, Armenia dies.