Armenia’s Russian-Ukrainian Grain Scandal Is More Serious Than Many Might Realize

Armenia’s potential replacement of low-cost Russian grain with more expensive Ukrainian grain could worsen its already difficult financial situation and thus prompt Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye to propose a bailout in exchange for further sovereignty concessions in its strategic southern province of Syunik.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that Armenia plans to replace low-cost Russian grain with more expensive Ukrainian grain subsidized by the EU as a way of signaling support for Kiev and further distancing itself from Moscow. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan denied the report, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted isn’t baseless, but confirmed that Armenia has received offers for better-quality and lower-cost grain that it won’t “turn a deaf ear to”. The larger context is important.

Armenia just received its first batch of Russian grain by rail via Azerbaijan in three decades, after which Pashinyan considered the import of other Russian goods via the same route. This was made possible by late summer’s US-brokered normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani ties that also resulted in the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). That corridor threatens to undermine Russia’s regional position by facilitating Turkiye’s injection of Western influence along its southern periphery.

It wasn’t known during Armenia’s latest unrest in early summer that TRIPP would be announced less than two months later, but in hindsight, it could have been averted had Pashinyan resigned like the protesters who he implied were backed by Russia demanded. He came to power riding a wave of anti-Russian sentiment and regularly played this card since then, especially after Armenia’s defeat in 2020’s Karabakh Conflict, even recently accusing the KGB of pitting his people against Azeris and Turks.

Russia therefore doesn’t trust Pashinyan, and his pattern of anti-Russian behavior lends credence to SVR’s report about his plans to replace low-cost Russian grain with more expensive Ukrainian grain subsidized by the EU despite his talk about ramping up imports of other Russian goods via Azerbaijan. As its spies assessed, “What’s appealing is that the EU is being offered a ‘three-for-one’ deal: grain for Armenia, support for Kiev, and the promotion of mistrust between Moscow and Yerevan.”

The problem, however, is over financing. According to them, the EU can’t comfortably foot the bill for the Ukrainian grain that’s “more than twice as expensive” as Russia’s, hence why it’s more likely that “Yerevan will have to pay on an ongoing basis” if it goes through with this scheme. The implication is that already financially troubled Armenia would struggle to do so, with prices rising across the board and the state coffers emptying at an even faster rate, thus possibly leading to another round of unrest.

The latest one was driven by the perception that Pashinyan sold Armenia out to its Turkic neighbors, and this belief might soon intensify if he goes through with the aforesaid deal. In that event, Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye might bail Armenia out in exchange for further sovereignty concessions in the southern province of Syunik that’ll host TRIPP, which might not lead to a formal territorial cession to avoid negative foreign reactions. This is a credible scenario that Pashinyan might even be purposely advancing.

Armenia’s subordination to the “Organization of Turkic States” as a de facto “Neo-Ottoman sanjak” might be inevitable due to TRIPP, which its Azeri-Turkish anchors are expected to use force to secure if Yerevan ever gets cold feet, but the terms might be less harsh as long as its not financially indebted to them. Its political independence is already lost, but the loss of its financial independence could lead to the loss of its socio-cultural independence, after which Turkification might follow even if only gradually at first.