All in all, what he got half-right about Polish military-security policy this time is that it prioritized Ukraine’s fight against Russia at the cost of national self-respect due to turning a blind eye towards the anti-Polish manifestations of Ukrainian Nazism, but he continues to believe outdated tropes about it.
I conjecture that the Polish leadership circle decided to swallow the bitter pill to achieve two effects: (1) more say in EU and NATO, especially more say than Germany; (2) US military support, technology transfer, troop and missile shield deployment. After the Iran War, I suspect that a lot of people have doubts about the tradeoffs they made last time. The US forces in the territory may be simply a magnet for Russian strikes. The US missile shield does not hold up against Iran, and likely will not hold up against the Russians. NATO/EU are still dominated by the old NATO members, Germany controls the EU, and France controls the ECB. A Chihuahua is assigned to the EU foreign policy commissioner. What has Poland got for swallowing that bitter pill?
Andrew, can you tell us only one valid analysis of this jester those last ten years?
If Russians let him say nonsense in knowing his prestigious place is only due to a great talent of courtier, it's ok.
But if Russians really, and especially important Russians really read this jester in thinking he is a great thinker , so I can say to you that Russia is lost.
I'm also very critical of Russia's expert community, which I believe mostly indulges in wishful thinking and also in telling the Kremlin whatever they think that it wants to hear. Very, very rarely do they ever arrive at "politically inconvenient" conclusions.
The problem isn't just cultural, both in terms of Russian culture in general and its "strategic culture" in particular, nor simply the broken feedback loops that I never tire of drawing attention to.
With the notable exception of Konstantin Malofeev's Tsargrad/Katehon, pretty much every other think tank in Russia is funded by the state, even if only indirectly through contracts. They therefore fear being cut off if the publish something that the Kremlin doesn't like.
This has led to a crisis of self-censorship that made the echo chamber deafening and thus reinforced groupthink, which in turn led to the formulation of policies that aren't just sometimes ineffective, but possibly even counterproductive.
Even worse, few here dare to talk about how counterproductive certain policies have been such as those that resulted in the "loss of Armenia", once again because they fear upsetting someone in the Kremlin who then either cuts off their think tank or possibly gets them fired.
It's different in France. The public founded analyst are often widely better than private analysts paid by oligarchs or foreign government ( undercover).
Public funding is not so easy to cut by the will of only one personn, even the president.
The only semi-realistic solution that I've proposed is for Russia's top three security services -- FSB, SVR, and GRU -- to create their own think tanks, even if they don't publicly share their work, for corroborating, challenging, or outright contradicting the MFA's claims during every government meeting.
The "friendly competition" between them, and not to mention between the security and diplomatic services, could ideally lead to these three new think tanks producing very high-quality content that doesn't shy away from constructively critiquing the MFA, which I blame for many of Russia's setbacks.
The problem is that people taken up by FSB, SVR and GRU are educated at Russian universities. This could lead to significant blinding due to their professors being unrealistic ideologues that do not understand how the West or even Eastern Europe work. The same problem also occurs in Western intelligence.
Yes, the polish political class are under mo illusions as to whom they are supporting in Ukraine. However, they have an overwhelming need to make the Americans and europeans happy.
No, there won't be a military clash or similar. The worst that will happen is some American or europenan will order them.to kiss and make up, They won't like.it and won't mean any of it, but it won't matter.
The overriding foreign policy of the Epstein Empire is the defeat of the "Axis of Resistance". It doesn't care who gets sacrificed to achieve that end...
I conjecture that the Polish leadership circle decided to swallow the bitter pill to achieve two effects: (1) more say in EU and NATO, especially more say than Germany; (2) US military support, technology transfer, troop and missile shield deployment. After the Iran War, I suspect that a lot of people have doubts about the tradeoffs they made last time. The US forces in the territory may be simply a magnet for Russian strikes. The US missile shield does not hold up against Iran, and likely will not hold up against the Russians. NATO/EU are still dominated by the old NATO members, Germany controls the EU, and France controls the ECB. A Chihuahua is assigned to the EU foreign policy commissioner. What has Poland got for swallowing that bitter pill?
A pole can imagine no greater delight than a pat on the head from an American.
Yes, just like a Frenchman when his wife gets her bottom pinched by their Arab neighbours 🤣
How much do we actually know about what the Poles thought about the value of Franco-British alliance offer in the last days before September 1, 1939?
Now do the rest of the world.
Andrew, can you tell us only one valid analysis of this jester those last ten years?
If Russians let him say nonsense in knowing his prestigious place is only due to a great talent of courtier, it's ok.
But if Russians really, and especially important Russians really read this jester in thinking he is a great thinker , so I can say to you that Russia is lost.
I'm also very critical of Russia's expert community, which I believe mostly indulges in wishful thinking and also in telling the Kremlin whatever they think that it wants to hear. Very, very rarely do they ever arrive at "politically inconvenient" conclusions.
The problem isn't just cultural, both in terms of Russian culture in general and its "strategic culture" in particular, nor simply the broken feedback loops that I never tire of drawing attention to.
With the notable exception of Konstantin Malofeev's Tsargrad/Katehon, pretty much every other think tank in Russia is funded by the state, even if only indirectly through contracts. They therefore fear being cut off if the publish something that the Kremlin doesn't like.
This has led to a crisis of self-censorship that made the echo chamber deafening and thus reinforced groupthink, which in turn led to the formulation of policies that aren't just sometimes ineffective, but possibly even counterproductive.
Even worse, few here dare to talk about how counterproductive certain policies have been such as those that resulted in the "loss of Armenia", once again because they fear upsetting someone in the Kremlin who then either cuts off their think tank or possibly gets them fired.
It's different in France. The public founded analyst are often widely better than private analysts paid by oligarchs or foreign government ( undercover).
Public funding is not so easy to cut by the will of only one personn, even the president.
In France we have exactly the same kind of prestigious "analyst".
But everybody know why they always mistake. Because everybody knows who pay them to tell those bullshit.
Who pay Bordachev to say do much bullshits?
Valdai pays him but they're funded by the Kremlin so he's essentially a public employee.
Here are their specific founders, who I believe also finance them, including the MFA-run MGIOM, my alma mater:
"Founders:
Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP)
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MGIMO University)
National Research University Higher School of Economics"
https://valdaiclub.com/about/valdai/
The only semi-realistic solution that I've proposed is for Russia's top three security services -- FSB, SVR, and GRU -- to create their own think tanks, even if they don't publicly share their work, for corroborating, challenging, or outright contradicting the MFA's claims during every government meeting.
The "friendly competition" between them, and not to mention between the security and diplomatic services, could ideally lead to these three new think tanks producing very high-quality content that doesn't shy away from constructively critiquing the MFA, which I blame for many of Russia's setbacks.
The problem is that people taken up by FSB, SVR and GRU are educated at Russian universities. This could lead to significant blinding due to their professors being unrealistic ideologues that do not understand how the West or even Eastern Europe work. The same problem also occurs in Western intelligence.
Why did Russia refuse to return the Polish presidential plane ? Polish mistrust might stem from such actions.
Yes, the polish political class are under mo illusions as to whom they are supporting in Ukraine. However, they have an overwhelming need to make the Americans and europeans happy.
No, there won't be a military clash or similar. The worst that will happen is some American or europenan will order them.to kiss and make up, They won't like.it and won't mean any of it, but it won't matter.
The overriding foreign policy of the Epstein Empire is the defeat of the "Axis of Resistance". It doesn't care who gets sacrificed to achieve that end...