A Russian loss would be catastrophic for China’s security, while a Russian victory could end the discounted energy bonanza that’s helping it maintain its economic growth amidst the slowdown, not to mention accelerate the US’ “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing it.
I hope China's power elites do not go down the path of Microsoft. Microsoft software architects think they design smart features. For me, they only make things worse and increase the chance of systemic instability. Then somebody in Microsoft decided to have "World Domination v 2.0". Trying to be too smart usually boomerangs back and hurts badly. Look at Russia's international policy and action after Putin got power, he focuses mostly on domestic revival and maintaining peaceful trade relationships with its neighbors. Putin did not get his subordinates to write books on how a new big beautiful nation rises on the world stage, nor have national newspapers praising of his pointing out directions for the world to follow. Yes, Putin grabs power tightly, and some say relentlessly. But otherwise, most of his focus is on resolving Russia's domestic problems.
About a hundred years ago, when the Founding Father of the Republic of China lectured about the ways for China on the nationalism matters, he said two things. One: equal treatment to all ethnicities in China, there should be no first among the equals. Two: Unite with the people around the world who are willing to help China, and help them in return. Simple goals, but quite difficult to achieve, aren't they? Human nature works against the first, and geopolitics works against the second. I think as much as everything is reciprocal, we will have a chance to get close.
With China, yes, that's my impression too - they are kind of slightly equivocating.
By the way, Russia doesn't import from or export to much to the USA. For Russia, the main Western trade partners are the EU, Japan and S Korea. As long as the EU, EFTA (CH, Au, No, Ic) and J/SK maintain sanctions and aggressive posture, Russia will need to rely on China.
First, why do you assume that China hasn’t actively been assisting Russia in Ukraine?Indeed, it beggars belief that Beijing wouldn’t do so for precisely some of the reasons you adumbrate.
Second, it further beggars belief that the US/NATO haven’t known this all along, but stayed silent for several reasons: most importantly, the fact that they would have had to reveal their military hands prematurely. Put differently, they would have had to display the men and materiel they would have preferred to save for a far more technologically sophisticated PLA. I think you fail to understand just how fearful they are of China, let alone China and Russia combined at this particular juncture in history. The West doesn’t yet have its ducks in a row.
Third, both Russia and China are faced with the real prospect of having to take on the US/NATO/ Turkey for control of Central Asia/TURKIC ARC in the very near future. There has to be a realistic prospect that both Russia and China will soon have to fight in Kazakhstan, the other Stans and Azerbaijan. If they lose, China can kiss goodbye to the BRI, while Russia would say farewell to the North South Corridor. Both countries are trying in keep their powder dry for as long as they can. Otherwise, there’ll be many wolves howling at their respective back doors.
We need to develop an understanding on Chinese priorities here. For China, just like all nations, long-term security and stability is the highest priority. These basic Chinese interests, although combined with a fast growing share in the planet’s economy and military strength, were fundamentally undermined in June of 2010. That was when three US nuclear submarines surfaced around China, making an attempt to clarify planetary leadership. It did not work out. Ping-pong diplomacy combined with uncontrolled greed deprived America from number one status and I don’t really care how many millions of pizza stores, service outlets and lawyers prove statistically that America is the planet’s industrial leader. It is not. This weakened US position is reflected well by the fact that America is presently challenging, rather openly, four nations with formidable military strengths. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. In addition, half the planet is already lined up as hostiles to American economic interests. All these factors, combined with Trump’s weakened domestic positions, place the US into an increasingly more surrealistic geopolitical position and geopolitics is a bloody serious business. America is turning inward in an unmistakable manner. Yesterday’s Trump voters are already burning their MAGA hats in total disrespect of the beloved leader. They want law and order in America, still an elusive dream only. They instinctively feel that the age of forever wars is not working out for them.
Good friendships are hard to come by in this world. If China is as smart as it thinks, it'll be a good friend to a friend in need. Im quite sure Russia will be a good friend in return. The world can only be peaceful if relationships are mutually respectful. It is quite clear that the US is yet to accept this children's sanbox theory of foreign relations.
The difference between western oligarchy and Chinese nomenklatura is that West want Russia totally dismembered and servile and China want Russia dismembered and servile east of Ural .
China with Siberia can be completely self-sufficient, protect west by a huge glaze till Ural and Caspian see, south by Himalaya and east by Pacific.
China can't let west destroy Russia and take Siberia but can surely wish a Russia as weak and isolated as possible. And for now, it's Xi faction which rules...it's not forever. Poutine is not eternal too.
Andrew, China will see a Russia win better for it than a Russia loss in Ukraine. China can still source its cheap oil from Iran and elsewhere after Russia's victory. In any case, Russia's cheap oil won't recover to pre-conflict prices so fast.
Andrew, don’t let some Chinese communist sympathizer get you riled. While China “claims” to not have military bases around the globe they most certainly have “secret” police forces everywhere that attempts to subvert people who have fled the communist country. They also attempt to insert themselves by corruption in every countries politics. Check out Sam Cooper and his investigative work up in Canada and you’ll see how “peaceful” Chinese culture really is. That guy is delusional. Getting back to your article. I believe Putin will take those comments as a slight from the CCP as it seems like they are taking him as a sucker. They are buying Russian oil at a discount and while that may not exactly hurt Russia it surely shows the lack of respect China has for them. China shouldn’t have spoken so soon either as Trump is mulling over serious sanctions for anyone buying oil from Russia which is going to lead to some hard choices if a 500% tariff gets placed on anyone buying oil from them. The world would rather have access to the US economy than cheap oil. I’m not trying to be a dick here but that is a fact. The US buys more products than anyone on earth which keeps other countries economies moving.
That’s where you’re wrong because when you walk into my house you’ll see the sidearm I carry and you’ll surely think twice before you put your feet on my table. Rest assured you touch my wife’s ass or daughters the next bullet out of my .45 is to your heart. There’s the difference between the US and France. I can have guns and you can’t so we don’t have stupid sayings like that. We have sayings like fuck around and find out.
Hey no buddy, one more US ignorance . There are approximately 55 millions guns in France( for 68 millions) , but we are not mad enough to shot at every time.
But I don't know why you speak about that. It's absolutely irrelevant.
It seems you're too dumb to share ideas and visions.
Right, buddy, I don’t avoid anything. You don’t live here so your views are only from what the left wing globalist media tells you. Europe is freaking out having to spend 5% GDP to support NATO. France in fact had riots over cuts to bullshit social programs that you need to survive because you have a shit economy. You assholes all look down on the US like you have some moral authority to do so. Just remember you’d be speaking German right now if to wasn’t for America. If you don’t wish to recall that I can promise all your leaders do which is why Macron came to the US hat in hand to keep US money flowing into your high inflation zero economy country. You can’t even have a fair election banning the opposition for some bullshit that maybe happened a decade ago. Keep being a slave to the globalist left and you’ll soon be eating bugs and like it
I don't like your tone. You need to check your attitude or you're getting banned. I'm not a "typical Westerner"; I've lived in Moscow for 13 years, received my MA in IR and PhD in Poli-Sci at the Russian MFA-run MGIMO, and was falsely implicated by US intel in a fake "spy"/"meddling" scandal in summer 2020.
You can disagree with what I wrote in a respectful way without attacking me personally, let alone on false premises. Let me go even further with how I'm not "typical", you clownish ethno-nationalist, bigot. What "typical" Westerner specializes in South Asia (my PhD dissertation was on Russian-Pakistani relations), let alone goes to Pakistan 5x?
How about my personal life? My wife isn't an ethnic Russian, but she is from the former Soviet Union. How many "typical" Westerners marry people from there? I also freelanced with CGTN for three years from 2019-2022. Here, Michael, you can read all my analyses below:
Alt-Media trolls like you give China a terrible name and lend false credence to claims that most Chinese are secretly ethno-nationalist bigots just like you are. If you disrespect me again, you're banned. I'm feeling generous today so I'm giving you a warning instead of banning you right away but I suspect that you'll force my hand. Let's see if you're "typical".
Pretty much everything you say is true. However, the main theme of the post is that the Chinese government, for its own long-term and short-term advantages, will not fully support Russia's war effort. At least not as much as North Korea. China indeed has three thousand years of documented history. That heritage also means a gigantic amount of political intrigue, double-cross, or naked aggression. Of course, it is part of human nature, not unique to China. However, that means China's political leadership, whatever party or ideological affiliation they may have, knows how to and can do bad things. Yes China has been mostly weak for the last 200 years. The real challenge to that 5000-year history and civilization claim will come when China is really strong and civilized. If you go to Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar, you can have a better feeling about how people there view China on their borders.
All wars started on Oct 7, 2023 had a green light from the Chinese CP politbureau. It wasn't just Iran that approved. One can easily see it from the Chinese Media reports and the TikTok algorythms. So much for the "neutral" Chinese diplomacy. And then, Chinese start not asking themselves why people who previously found Chinese sympatico suddenly have become apprehensive...
Besides, US Congress was ready to shut down funding for Ukraine in Autumn 2023 because the Ukrainian reconquista effort in Summer 2023 petered out. By then everyone knew, Ukrainians aren't ging to get the lost territories back. It was only the attacks on Oct 7, 2023 that produced a new coalition between pro-Ukraine and pro-Israel forces in US Congress that secured further funding for the Ukraine. Of course, if THAT was the Chinese intention, it was a diplomatic master stroke.
I hope China's power elites do not go down the path of Microsoft. Microsoft software architects think they design smart features. For me, they only make things worse and increase the chance of systemic instability. Then somebody in Microsoft decided to have "World Domination v 2.0". Trying to be too smart usually boomerangs back and hurts badly. Look at Russia's international policy and action after Putin got power, he focuses mostly on domestic revival and maintaining peaceful trade relationships with its neighbors. Putin did not get his subordinates to write books on how a new big beautiful nation rises on the world stage, nor have national newspapers praising of his pointing out directions for the world to follow. Yes, Putin grabs power tightly, and some say relentlessly. But otherwise, most of his focus is on resolving Russia's domestic problems.
About a hundred years ago, when the Founding Father of the Republic of China lectured about the ways for China on the nationalism matters, he said two things. One: equal treatment to all ethnicities in China, there should be no first among the equals. Two: Unite with the people around the world who are willing to help China, and help them in return. Simple goals, but quite difficult to achieve, aren't they? Human nature works against the first, and geopolitics works against the second. I think as much as everything is reciprocal, we will have a chance to get close.
Windows 11 is a disaster.
In what way ?
Recall.
With China, yes, that's my impression too - they are kind of slightly equivocating.
By the way, Russia doesn't import from or export to much to the USA. For Russia, the main Western trade partners are the EU, Japan and S Korea. As long as the EU, EFTA (CH, Au, No, Ic) and J/SK maintain sanctions and aggressive posture, Russia will need to rely on China.
Some problems I have with your argument, Andrew:
First, why do you assume that China hasn’t actively been assisting Russia in Ukraine?Indeed, it beggars belief that Beijing wouldn’t do so for precisely some of the reasons you adumbrate.
Second, it further beggars belief that the US/NATO haven’t known this all along, but stayed silent for several reasons: most importantly, the fact that they would have had to reveal their military hands prematurely. Put differently, they would have had to display the men and materiel they would have preferred to save for a far more technologically sophisticated PLA. I think you fail to understand just how fearful they are of China, let alone China and Russia combined at this particular juncture in history. The West doesn’t yet have its ducks in a row.
Third, both Russia and China are faced with the real prospect of having to take on the US/NATO/ Turkey for control of Central Asia/TURKIC ARC in the very near future. There has to be a realistic prospect that both Russia and China will soon have to fight in Kazakhstan, the other Stans and Azerbaijan. If they lose, China can kiss goodbye to the BRI, while Russia would say farewell to the North South Corridor. Both countries are trying in keep their powder dry for as long as they can. Otherwise, there’ll be many wolves howling at their respective back doors.
We need to develop an understanding on Chinese priorities here. For China, just like all nations, long-term security and stability is the highest priority. These basic Chinese interests, although combined with a fast growing share in the planet’s economy and military strength, were fundamentally undermined in June of 2010. That was when three US nuclear submarines surfaced around China, making an attempt to clarify planetary leadership. It did not work out. Ping-pong diplomacy combined with uncontrolled greed deprived America from number one status and I don’t really care how many millions of pizza stores, service outlets and lawyers prove statistically that America is the planet’s industrial leader. It is not. This weakened US position is reflected well by the fact that America is presently challenging, rather openly, four nations with formidable military strengths. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. In addition, half the planet is already lined up as hostiles to American economic interests. All these factors, combined with Trump’s weakened domestic positions, place the US into an increasingly more surrealistic geopolitical position and geopolitics is a bloody serious business. America is turning inward in an unmistakable manner. Yesterday’s Trump voters are already burning their MAGA hats in total disrespect of the beloved leader. They want law and order in America, still an elusive dream only. They instinctively feel that the age of forever wars is not working out for them.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/462-tomahawk-missiles-china-freaked-when-navy-surfaced-3-missile-subs-once-207527#:~:text=Sometimes%20in%20these%20moments%2C%20a,diverse%20range%20of%20enemy%20assets.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/17/trump-jeffrey-epstein-republicans-maga
Hey
Korybko
Stop writing bulshit.
Best comment so far. Short and effective. Kudos to you Andrew
The important question is: What can China do to prevent a Russian victory. Which doesn’t seem like all that much.
Good friendships are hard to come by in this world. If China is as smart as it thinks, it'll be a good friend to a friend in need. Im quite sure Russia will be a good friend in return. The world can only be peaceful if relationships are mutually respectful. It is quite clear that the US is yet to accept this children's sanbox theory of foreign relations.
Bravo!
I'm 100% ok with what you say.
The difference between western oligarchy and Chinese nomenklatura is that West want Russia totally dismembered and servile and China want Russia dismembered and servile east of Ural .
China with Siberia can be completely self-sufficient, protect west by a huge glaze till Ural and Caspian see, south by Himalaya and east by Pacific.
China can't let west destroy Russia and take Siberia but can surely wish a Russia as weak and isolated as possible. And for now, it's Xi faction which rules...it's not forever. Poutine is not eternal too.
Andrew, China will see a Russia win better for it than a Russia loss in Ukraine. China can still source its cheap oil from Iran and elsewhere after Russia's victory. In any case, Russia's cheap oil won't recover to pre-conflict prices so fast.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Andrew, don’t let some Chinese communist sympathizer get you riled. While China “claims” to not have military bases around the globe they most certainly have “secret” police forces everywhere that attempts to subvert people who have fled the communist country. They also attempt to insert themselves by corruption in every countries politics. Check out Sam Cooper and his investigative work up in Canada and you’ll see how “peaceful” Chinese culture really is. That guy is delusional. Getting back to your article. I believe Putin will take those comments as a slight from the CCP as it seems like they are taking him as a sucker. They are buying Russian oil at a discount and while that may not exactly hurt Russia it surely shows the lack of respect China has for them. China shouldn’t have spoken so soon either as Trump is mulling over serious sanctions for anyone buying oil from Russia which is going to lead to some hard choices if a 500% tariff gets placed on anyone buying oil from them. The world would rather have access to the US economy than cheap oil. I’m not trying to be a dick here but that is a fact. The US buys more products than anyone on earth which keeps other countries economies moving.
Yes, yes, yes buddy. Sure, customer is king...untill he comes put his feet on your table , touch the your wife's ass , and daughter, and even yours.
It's to everyone to choose if he want to do bizness or to be treated like a little bitch and a slave.
In France, we have an expression for that, Trump wants the butter, money of butter and farmer 's wife ass.
Before, former US presidents required only butter and money of butter
That’s where you’re wrong because when you walk into my house you’ll see the sidearm I carry and you’ll surely think twice before you put your feet on my table. Rest assured you touch my wife’s ass or daughters the next bullet out of my .45 is to your heart. There’s the difference between the US and France. I can have guns and you can’t so we don’t have stupid sayings like that. We have sayings like fuck around and find out.
Hey no buddy, one more US ignorance . There are approximately 55 millions guns in France( for 68 millions) , but we are not mad enough to shot at every time.
But I don't know why you speak about that. It's absolutely irrelevant.
It seems you're too dumb to share ideas and visions.
Ok, he will avoid now.
Right, buddy, I don’t avoid anything. You don’t live here so your views are only from what the left wing globalist media tells you. Europe is freaking out having to spend 5% GDP to support NATO. France in fact had riots over cuts to bullshit social programs that you need to survive because you have a shit economy. You assholes all look down on the US like you have some moral authority to do so. Just remember you’d be speaking German right now if to wasn’t for America. If you don’t wish to recall that I can promise all your leaders do which is why Macron came to the US hat in hand to keep US money flowing into your high inflation zero economy country. You can’t even have a fair election banning the opposition for some bullshit that maybe happened a decade ago. Keep being a slave to the globalist left and you’ll soon be eating bugs and like it
Are you sure you're ok?
Yup I’m over 21 and live free in the US of A shit for brains.
Energy is key to the rise of China
https://open.substack.com/pub/gailtverberg/p/worrying-indications-in-recently?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5snknl
Customers is not bad too
I don't like your tone. You need to check your attitude or you're getting banned. I'm not a "typical Westerner"; I've lived in Moscow for 13 years, received my MA in IR and PhD in Poli-Sci at the Russian MFA-run MGIMO, and was falsely implicated by US intel in a fake "spy"/"meddling" scandal in summer 2020.
You can disagree with what I wrote in a respectful way without attacking me personally, let alone on false premises. Let me go even further with how I'm not "typical", you clownish ethno-nationalist, bigot. What "typical" Westerner specializes in South Asia (my PhD dissertation was on Russian-Pakistani relations), let alone goes to Pakistan 5x?
How about my personal life? My wife isn't an ethnic Russian, but she is from the former Soviet Union. How many "typical" Westerners marry people from there? I also freelanced with CGTN for three years from 2019-2022. Here, Michael, you can read all my analyses below:
https://www.cgtn.com/opinions/commentator/Andrew-Korybko.html
Alt-Media trolls like you give China a terrible name and lend false credence to claims that most Chinese are secretly ethno-nationalist bigots just like you are. If you disrespect me again, you're banned. I'm feeling generous today so I'm giving you a warning instead of banning you right away but I suspect that you'll force my hand. Let's see if you're "typical".
Pretty much everything you say is true. However, the main theme of the post is that the Chinese government, for its own long-term and short-term advantages, will not fully support Russia's war effort. At least not as much as North Korea. China indeed has three thousand years of documented history. That heritage also means a gigantic amount of political intrigue, double-cross, or naked aggression. Of course, it is part of human nature, not unique to China. However, that means China's political leadership, whatever party or ideological affiliation they may have, knows how to and can do bad things. Yes China has been mostly weak for the last 200 years. The real challenge to that 5000-year history and civilization claim will come when China is really strong and civilized. If you go to Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar, you can have a better feeling about how people there view China on their borders.
Is that what China advises Viet Nam while it sits in Viet Nam's territorial water sucking up Viet Nam's oil?
Escobar, get out this body 😂😂
All wars started on Oct 7, 2023 had a green light from the Chinese CP politbureau. It wasn't just Iran that approved. One can easily see it from the Chinese Media reports and the TikTok algorythms. So much for the "neutral" Chinese diplomacy. And then, Chinese start not asking themselves why people who previously found Chinese sympatico suddenly have become apprehensive...
Besides, US Congress was ready to shut down funding for Ukraine in Autumn 2023 because the Ukrainian reconquista effort in Summer 2023 petered out. By then everyone knew, Ukrainians aren't ging to get the lost territories back. It was only the attacks on Oct 7, 2023 that produced a new coalition between pro-Ukraine and pro-Israel forces in US Congress that secured further funding for the Ukraine. Of course, if THAT was the Chinese intention, it was a diplomatic master stroke.