Closer Belarusian-Pakistani Military-Technical Co-Op Could Complicate Russian-Indian Ties

Given the officially designated “special and privileged” nature of the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership, it should be assumed that Putin didn’t authorize Lukashenko to sell high-tech military equipment to Pakistan for use against India and that he’d be appalled if Lukashenko agreed to do so.

Pakistani Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu recently visited the Belarusian capital of Minsk for high-level talks on comprehensively expanding military-technical cooperation. Sputnik cited the insight of top Pakistani analyst retired Rear Admiral Faisal Shah in a post on X to inform their audience that “The Belarusian arms industry could offer Pakistan UAVs, microelectronics, optronics, and heavy military vehicles.” They also mentioned “an emerging Pakistan — Belarus — Russia defense triangle”.

While neither side has yet to confirm exactly what might have been agreed to during Sidhu’s talks with his Belarusian counterparts, the Times of India produced a segment right after asking, “Is Pakistan Quietly Building A Powerful Russia-Belarus Military Triangle Against India?” Belarus is Russia’s top military ally and both countries participate in the Union State so it’s reasonable for Indians to wonder whether Putin tasked Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko with arming Pakistan against India.

Russia and Pakistan are also in the midst of an rapid rapprochement that’s expected to reach its next milestone with the visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later this summer after his initially planned trip earlier this year was abruptly postponed as a result of the Third Gulf War. Coupled with newly positive coverage of Pakistan and newly negative coverage of India by Russia’s “global media ecosystem”, both state media and top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” influencers, it’s understandable why India might worry.

Moreover, Minister of External Affairs Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar lambasted the Europeans just last month for selling arms to Pakistan that were used against India, and he lambasted his Polish counterpart personally earlier in the year for helping to “fuel the terrorist infrastructure in our neighbourhood.” The latter concerned Radek Sikorski’s trip to Pakistan late last year in the months following last spring’s Indo-Pak conflict. The precedent therefore exists for India to apply the same standard towards Belarus.

Whether it publicly does or not remains to be seen, but India will almost certainly employ discreet diplomatic channels at minimum to seek clarity from Russia about the details of whatever military-technical deals Belarus and Pakistan might have agreed to during Sidhu’s visit to Minsk. It’ll also likely do its utmost to discern whether Russia approved of whatever arrangement they might have clinched or if Lukashenko is once again behaving “independently” of Putin in ways that go against Russian interests.

He has a long track record of this, plus he’s now in talks with the US over a “big deal” that he boasted is in the works between them, so it’s possible that he’s “going rogue” once more but in ways that fall below the threshold of punishment from Putin. Although the Belarusian economy is dependent on the Russian market and energy subsidies, Russia’s special operation is dependent on Belarus not “defecting”, which Lukashenko could be exploiting to push the limits of which “independent” policies Putin will tolerate.

Given the officially designated “special and privileged” nature of the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership, it should be assumed that Putin didn’t authorize Lukashenko to sell high-tech military equipment to Pakistan for use against India and that he’d be appalled if Lukashenko agreed to do so. Nevertheless, precisely because Russia needs Belarus right now more than Belarus needs Russia, his hands are tied in terms of how to respond if this is indeed the case and hopefully India understands this.