Continued Russian-US Talks Prove That Putin Doesn’t Think That Trump Duped Iran With Diplomacy
Skeptics might speculate that he’s playing “5D chess” as part of some “master plan” to “psyche out” the US but that doesn’t make much sense.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed last week that the US’ bombing of several nuclear sites in Iran won’t affect their bilateral dialogue, declaring that “These are independent processes.” This is significant since many observers speculated that Trump duped Iran with diplomacy while supposedly plotting to attack it this entire time. If true, then it would follow that he might also be duping Russia too, albeit not in preparation of a direct US attack but in pursuit of some other nebulous goal.
Putin doesn’t adhere to that interpretation, however, which is also proven by him later talking about his “great respect” for Trump and praising his “sincere commitment” to peace in Ukraine. Skeptics might speculate that he’s playing “5D chess” as part of some “master plan” to “psyche out” the US but that doesn’t make much sense. There’s no point in continuing a dialogue if one of the parties is convinced that the other isn’t negotiating in good faith. That would be a total waste of time and resources.
Nevertheless, Russian politicians and experts were very critical of Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, as was the country’s Permanent Representative at the UN. Their polemics don’t equate to Putin supposedly suspecting Trump of foul play in the US’ talks with Iran, however, but they do show that Russia was very displeased with what he ended up doing even though it later expressed cautious optimism about the ceasefire that he claimed credit for brokering. All of this is consistent with Russian policy.
On that topic, Russia is also interested in a ceasefire with Ukraine, but only on its terms. These include Ukraine withdrawing from the entirety of the disputed regions, declaring that it’ll no longer pursue NATO membership, and Western countries cutting off arms shipments to it, among other demands. Russia believes that continued dialogue with the US can lead to Trump ultimately coercing Zelensky into these concessions, to which end Putin offered him a strategic resource-centric partnership as an incentive.
The idea is that the US could invest in Russia’s rare earth and Arctic energy industries, with the first providing the US with its sought-after minerals and the second leading to them jointly managing the global oil and natural gas markets, thus giving each of them stakes in the other’s success. This could then in turn help ensure that relations remain manageable even if another crisis unexpectedly erupts. With time, Russia and the US would then reshape the world order, but only if their détente remains on track.
Therein lies the importance of continued Russian-US dialogue, which Putin is committed to in spite of speculation that Trump duped Iran with diplomacy ahead of attacking it. From his perspective, Trump isn’t just saying the right things about the conflict (most of the time at least), but he more importantly hasn’t doubled down on military-intelligence aid to Ukraine. Simply put, it’s Trump’s actions (or lack thereof in this case) that impress Putin, not his words, which he’d be foolish to take at face value.
That said, there’s no guarantee that Putin can convince Trump to coerce Zelensky into his demanded concessions, and the potential failure of their talks could indeed lead to the US escalating its involvement in Ukraine and therefore worsening tensions with Russia. Even so, Putin won’t prematurely abandon diplomacy just because some speculate that the US never truly intended to reach a deal with Iran, the assessment of which he doesn’t share as confirmed by his own and Peskov’s recent statements.
Mister Korybko
I wanted to thank you for your precious work.
It's to say that you are one of the three or four analyst I still read.
Absolutely every other "pundits" have considerably mistaken those last years.
Five years ago, I red two dozens of them.
Those last three years shown dramatically their delusion and weakness.
It's not always fun and hopeless to read you 😂, but it's often sadly true.
Bravo.
And thank you.
Diplomacy needs two to play. It is like a bridge pair. Here I come, there you go. Everybody looks polite and reasonable, arguing about national honor and pragmatic benefits. I believe diplomacy has always been like this, everywhere, all the time. The only time when diplomacy can truly work is when most of the involved parties are tired, better make that exhausted. For now, most of the West, including Israel, is exhausted or fairly tired. Iran is tired. but Russia is not. China is sick, appears powerful, but its modernized military has not been seriously challenged. The next door to kick is China's. Russia only needs to monitor the situation and make sure China is not fragmented, or get a few fragments if that does happen. There is a huge burden to rebuild Novorossiya. Putin has foreseen the coming fatigue and chosen to play the diplomatic game. Better politicians always try to avoid using military forces whenever they can. Only empires in their final days resort to military force for everything.