Redirecting Iran’s oil exports from China to India in exchange for partial US sanctions relief could avert another American attack by satisfying its goal of depriving China of some of the resources that it requires for maintaining its rapid superpower rise without risking a potentially disastrous regional war.
Personally, I think that we entered a whole new era after 9/11, and then we entered even newer ones with the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and now the SMO.
Yes the 9/11, walls of Jericho collapsed. 2008 crisis was the end of Hayek and Friedman bullshits. 2022 was the end of Fukuyama bullshits.
In the 20th century( for Chris Collier ;) , I think the beginning was 1917: first irruption of USA in European affairs. Birth of USSR.
But I feel( it's just a feeling) that 2026 is the true beginning of 21th century.
For example, until now, when I said 19, I thought of 1919, and I said 2019 and not 19. And it was the same even until 2025. But now, I now we are in 26. I know, it's a little weird but it's a feeling.
People speak of the long 19th century - from the American Revolution or at least the French Revolution to the Russian Revolution, and of the short 20th century from Russian Revolution to the collapse of the Soviet Union. So by this metric, we are like 33 years already into the 21st century...
For some reason I was thinking it would be "ieme", but I think that would mean "XVIIieme" is 17th instead of 17 Century. But isn't century "siècle" in French, or something like that?
Je suis Canadien et comprend un petit peu de francais.
Yes it's "ieme" but we always right "e" only. And for the century like for the kings we use roman notation, never "19e" but XIXe.
But it's changing with the illiterate generations on grow. :).
There's a French joke :
In a middle school of a "sensible" district of poor Paris suburb , a good teacher put on a play about french revolution.
A young boy must shout
" Down with the tyrant Louis XVI".
And he shout " Down with the tyrant Louis cross v stick"
:)
It's very commendable for a English Canadian to be interest by french.
I really love Ontario where I've been several time. And I really have wonderful memories of people in Ontario.
BUT.
But I had to say that I was "French from France" and they became really lovely. If they thought we came from Quebec they were haughty and even rude. :)
On time I came in a shop in Otawa and I ask something in french( it was in the ,80's).
The lady watch me as I was a polecat from head to feet and said very disdainfully: "speak white"... :)
First time I tested racism.
I Laughed and told her in English that I was surprised, as French guy, that my language was African.
She became confused and immediately very nice in saying " ho, I thought you were from Quebec.".
But once more, Ontario is the best place I've seen in the world and people is the nicest I've known( except the wild bow hunters near North Bay😂)
" Down with the tyrant Louis cross v stick" = LOL!
Surprised that happened in Ottawa as it is pretty bilingual. But one can find idiots anywhere I suppose.
I lived in Ontario from 1991-2009 (except for 1997-2000 in New Brunswick.
I lived about 2 hours northwest of Ottawa in a place called Chalk River. It's just up the road from Canadian Forces Base Petawawa where I was posted. Retired and since 2009 living back on Prince Edward Island.
I lived In Germany from 1985-1991 and really enjoyed that experience. Tried to travel as much as I could to see the rest of Europe.
I honestly doubt that Trump would be happy with just oil exports changes.
His Zionist “friends” would likely insist on some kind of de-armament, since Iranian missiles is their only weak spot.
Ultimately I think Nothingeverhappens bros will win this one. Trump wants a cheap and easy 100% guaranteed success, and that’s just not on the cards with Iran right now.
I don't think Kurdish clans in northwest Iran have the power that Erdogan needs to worry about, but subduing the northwest part of Iran under Azeri rule would cause chaos.
Now it was the little Zionist errand boy mezlum Abdi who initially didn't sign an agreement with Syria until yesterday, that mezlum is even allowed to do something like that even though he is a pkk from Turkey and has nothing to do in Syria and the usa is not going to purge him via erdogan talks about it nato muslim rule is far from strong to do anything with iran.
Russia will never ever join forces with the usa to rule the world because both are europeans.
Anyone who thinks that is completely brain dead and should be investigated for their own good.
If Iran fear an US attack untill give up all its strategic interest, it better give up on everything.
Iran repeatedly refused Russian defensive alliance and China's military help. Now Iran seems at the turning point.
It survived to the aggressive western sanctions thanks to China and Russia.
Where is its interest?
Either it enter frankly in a close relation with China and Russia and send US world to hell.
Or it surrender and give up everything, missile system, civil nuke, Islamic republic and even territorial integrity. Like Europeans, layed down ass up.
How many times has Russia refused to sell Iran weapons due to some silly "sanctions" or over Israeli concerns ? Do you blame Iran for not trusting Russia ?
Trump & the USA think they can control the world. No country has ever been able to do that. USA needs an alley, WHO ??? Why not Russia??? Together they can come close to doing that.
Qatar and America are the Voltron of the world. Tillerson fell backassward into making America more powerful even though him and Bush are the only Texans that couldn’t find oil and gas under Texas! 😉
I doubt that the U.S. would wish to encourage Indian purchases of Iranian oil. Such a move would deepen India–Pakistan faults at a time the latter is playing a pivotal role in outsourcing U.S. policy via the “Islamic NATO”, not least in Afghanistan. Plus, the Indian market for Iranian energy is large, and the size of Iran’s reserves dwarfs Russia’s, so a deal would actually give Iran leverage, in return for ending its rather meager exports to China. Moreover, U.S.–China ties are improving in tandem with a souring of U.S.–Russia ones; but Iran operates independently of either state, so it is a special case that should be viewed on its own.
The only reason which could allow USA to attack Iran is that, if like in Syria and Venezuela, the regim is rotten inside.
The 12 days war proved that something was rotten in the Iran's kingdom. The recent try of coloured revolution proved that if the regime is rotten by some factions, those factions are not(yet) strong enough to overwhelm regim.
Has Trump new infos that allow him to think that a strike could push to an Iranian regim collapse.
Oil is so 2008…LNG is the most important global commodity. In fact both Putin’s SMO in Ukraine and Hamas’ 10/7 are related to the development of the global LNG market which America and Qatar are dominating.
Oil and LNG are both mostly aliphatic hydrocarbons, with similar thermic unit value per weight. However, oil is much easier to handle, hence costs substantially more. The difference in price per thermic unit value are handling costs.
Correct, that’s why it’s impossible for a country to get a competitive advantage from oil because it’s too liquid and thus too easy to export. So America has a huge competitive advantage with our natural gas reserves because of bottlenecks to export it but Trump and the Republicans are attempting to squander that competitive advantage by investing hundreds of billions of dollars developing a global spot KNG market. Once we invest in export infrastructure we will have to export it to service the debt.
This may be one more step in America’s disengagement from the Eastern hemisphere, with trades along the way toward making the entire Western Hemisphere ’great again’ (trades like Taiwan for Brazil or Cuba).
Both Trump and Israel need to be careful here, as just a few Iranian nukes could bring Trump down and ruin goodwill for Israel in the West. Russia and China are committed to Iran. Iran’s survival is paramount for them, and they can deal with Iran’s gross internal mismanagement later.
Hopefully we will see a peaceful stand down here, as the US continues to decrease its footprint in the Eastern hemisphere in exchange for China decreasing its influence in the Americas.
Andrew, out of topic.
Don't you feel like in this January 2026, we really enter in 21th century?
Societies never enter in a new century on the first day of the century.
One can say that XVIIe begin with the 30 years war. XVIIIe near the death of Louis XIV and the weakness of France at the end of this disastrous reign.
The XIXe between Waterloo and the Congress of Vienna.
The XXe with the WW1.
It seem that the Trump strategic storm launched for good the XXIe.
Personally, I think that we entered a whole new era after 9/11, and then we entered even newer ones with the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and now the SMO.
Yes the 9/11, walls of Jericho collapsed. 2008 crisis was the end of Hayek and Friedman bullshits. 2022 was the end of Fukuyama bullshits.
In the 20th century( for Chris Collier ;) , I think the beginning was 1917: first irruption of USA in European affairs. Birth of USSR.
But I feel( it's just a feeling) that 2026 is the true beginning of 21th century.
For example, until now, when I said 19, I thought of 1919, and I said 2019 and not 19. And it was the same even until 2025. But now, I now we are in 26. I know, it's a little weird but it's a feeling.
People speak of the long 19th century - from the American Revolution or at least the French Revolution to the Russian Revolution, and of the short 20th century from Russian Revolution to the collapse of the Soviet Union. So by this metric, we are like 33 years already into the 21st century...
Did you have to use Roman numerals?
Just teasing, but the "e" at the end confused me.
Does "XVIIe" stand for 17th century?
Yes, excuse me, it's french. :)
Pas de probleme.
For some reason I was thinking it would be "ieme", but I think that would mean "XVIIieme" is 17th instead of 17 Century. But isn't century "siècle" in French, or something like that?
Je suis Canadien et comprend un petit peu de francais.
And I do agree with your theory.
Yes it's "ieme" but we always right "e" only. And for the century like for the kings we use roman notation, never "19e" but XIXe.
But it's changing with the illiterate generations on grow. :).
There's a French joke :
In a middle school of a "sensible" district of poor Paris suburb , a good teacher put on a play about french revolution.
A young boy must shout
" Down with the tyrant Louis XVI".
And he shout " Down with the tyrant Louis cross v stick"
:)
It's very commendable for a English Canadian to be interest by french.
I really love Ontario where I've been several time. And I really have wonderful memories of people in Ontario.
BUT.
But I had to say that I was "French from France" and they became really lovely. If they thought we came from Quebec they were haughty and even rude. :)
On time I came in a shop in Otawa and I ask something in french( it was in the ,80's).
The lady watch me as I was a polecat from head to feet and said very disdainfully: "speak white"... :)
First time I tested racism.
I Laughed and told her in English that I was surprised, as French guy, that my language was African.
She became confused and immediately very nice in saying " ho, I thought you were from Quebec.".
But once more, Ontario is the best place I've seen in the world and people is the nicest I've known( except the wild bow hunters near North Bay😂)
" Down with the tyrant Louis cross v stick" = LOL!
Surprised that happened in Ottawa as it is pretty bilingual. But one can find idiots anywhere I suppose.
I lived in Ontario from 1991-2009 (except for 1997-2000 in New Brunswick.
I lived about 2 hours northwest of Ottawa in a place called Chalk River. It's just up the road from Canadian Forces Base Petawawa where I was posted. Retired and since 2009 living back on Prince Edward Island.
I lived In Germany from 1985-1991 and really enjoyed that experience. Tried to travel as much as I could to see the rest of Europe.
Merci!
America seeks to do to Iran what it did to Iraq, Libya and Syria.
I honestly doubt that Trump would be happy with just oil exports changes.
His Zionist “friends” would likely insist on some kind of de-armament, since Iranian missiles is their only weak spot.
Ultimately I think Nothingeverhappens bros will win this one. Trump wants a cheap and easy 100% guaranteed success, and that’s just not on the cards with Iran right now.
I don't think Kurdish clans in northwest Iran have the power that Erdogan needs to worry about, but subduing the northwest part of Iran under Azeri rule would cause chaos.
Now it was the little Zionist errand boy mezlum Abdi who initially didn't sign an agreement with Syria until yesterday, that mezlum is even allowed to do something like that even though he is a pkk from Turkey and has nothing to do in Syria and the usa is not going to purge him via erdogan talks about it nato muslim rule is far from strong to do anything with iran.
Russia will never ever join forces with the usa to rule the world because both are europeans.
Anyone who thinks that is completely brain dead and should be investigated for their own good.
Azeri control Iran not persian people , khomein is Azeri
If you look at the last names of some Iranians, you are absolutely right, it is not only Azeri last names, it is also Armenian.
I know some Armenian Iranians.
But that does not mean that the Azeri government in Iran should dissolve Iran so that Azerbaijan will get back some of the Iranian territory.
Would be kind of a betrayal of China, which has proved itself very useful during the Iranian riots.
Exports to India would go to China after a quick little markup however, and I suppose exports could swing back to the Chinese after say six months.
Trump isn’t likely to notice lol
If Iran fear an US attack untill give up all its strategic interest, it better give up on everything.
Iran repeatedly refused Russian defensive alliance and China's military help. Now Iran seems at the turning point.
It survived to the aggressive western sanctions thanks to China and Russia.
Where is its interest?
Either it enter frankly in a close relation with China and Russia and send US world to hell.
Or it surrender and give up everything, missile system, civil nuke, Islamic republic and even territorial integrity. Like Europeans, layed down ass up.
How many times has Russia refused to sell Iran weapons due to some silly "sanctions" or over Israeli concerns ? Do you blame Iran for not trusting Russia ?
It's not wrong
Trump & the USA think they can control the world. No country has ever been able to do that. USA needs an alley, WHO ??? Why not Russia??? Together they can come close to doing that.
Qatar and America are the Voltron of the world. Tillerson fell backassward into making America more powerful even though him and Bush are the only Texans that couldn’t find oil and gas under Texas! 😉
I doubt that the U.S. would wish to encourage Indian purchases of Iranian oil. Such a move would deepen India–Pakistan faults at a time the latter is playing a pivotal role in outsourcing U.S. policy via the “Islamic NATO”, not least in Afghanistan. Plus, the Indian market for Iranian energy is large, and the size of Iran’s reserves dwarfs Russia’s, so a deal would actually give Iran leverage, in return for ending its rather meager exports to China. Moreover, U.S.–China ties are improving in tandem with a souring of U.S.–Russia ones; but Iran operates independently of either state, so it is a special case that should be viewed on its own.
It wouldn't work. The USA are at greater odds with Iran than with Russia.
The only reason which could allow USA to attack Iran is that, if like in Syria and Venezuela, the regim is rotten inside.
The 12 days war proved that something was rotten in the Iran's kingdom. The recent try of coloured revolution proved that if the regime is rotten by some factions, those factions are not(yet) strong enough to overwhelm regim.
Has Trump new infos that allow him to think that a strike could push to an Iranian regim collapse.
If no, it's only bluff.
Oil is so 2008…LNG is the most important global commodity. In fact both Putin’s SMO in Ukraine and Hamas’ 10/7 are related to the development of the global LNG market which America and Qatar are dominating.
Oil and LNG are both mostly aliphatic hydrocarbons, with similar thermic unit value per weight. However, oil is much easier to handle, hence costs substantially more. The difference in price per thermic unit value are handling costs.
Correct, that’s why it’s impossible for a country to get a competitive advantage from oil because it’s too liquid and thus too easy to export. So America has a huge competitive advantage with our natural gas reserves because of bottlenecks to export it but Trump and the Republicans are attempting to squander that competitive advantage by investing hundreds of billions of dollars developing a global spot KNG market. Once we invest in export infrastructure we will have to export it to service the debt.
This may be one more step in America’s disengagement from the Eastern hemisphere, with trades along the way toward making the entire Western Hemisphere ’great again’ (trades like Taiwan for Brazil or Cuba).
Both Trump and Israel need to be careful here, as just a few Iranian nukes could bring Trump down and ruin goodwill for Israel in the West. Russia and China are committed to Iran. Iran’s survival is paramount for them, and they can deal with Iran’s gross internal mismanagement later.
Hopefully we will see a peaceful stand down here, as the US continues to decrease its footprint in the Eastern hemisphere in exchange for China decreasing its influence in the Americas.