Creative Ethiopian Diplomacy Might Deter An Egyptian-Backed Eritrean-TPLF Offensive

Economic-diplomatic initiatives with the UAE and Saudi Arabia could pair with a proposed Congolese-like economic-security deal with the US to get Egypt’s three patrons to stop it before it’s too late.

The Ethiopian Foreign Minister warned his US counterpart about an impending Eritrean-TPLF offensive which, given the regional context, would be backed by aspiring hegemon Egypt. Eritrea is now allied with a hardline faction of its former TPLF enemies in pursuit of their shared Egyptian patron’s grand strategic goal of “Balkanizing” Ethiopia. These developments follow Ethiopia’s surprise rapprochement with Somalia, which defused the hitherto most likely regional conflict scenario (at least for now).

It's imperative that this offensive is averted. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa at around 130 million people and its fastest-growing economy. It’s also one of China’s top BRI partners on the continent, though it multi-aligns between Russia, the US (with whom it cooperates against Somali-based terrorists), India, the Gulf, the EU, and Turkiye too. A large-scale conflict could thus lead to mass casualties, unprecedented refugee flows to Europe and the Gulf, and a regional terrorist caliphate.

Creative Ethiopian diplomacy might be the key to ensuring regional peace. Egypt is dependent on financing from UAE and Saudi Arabia so they could play a role in deterring its proxy war plans. For that to happen, they must obtain greater stakes in Ethiopia’s stability, ergo why new investment opportunities should be proposed without delay. If clinched, then Egypt’s financial patrons might pull the strings to dissuade their junior partner from endangering their new regional projects via Eritrea-TPLF.

Apart from the aforesaid economic-diplomatic initiative, Ethiopia would do well to consider a Congolese-like economic-security deal with the US. This could take the form of giving US companies privileged access to its largely untapped mining industry in exchange for guarantees against Egyptian-backed Eritrean-TPLF aggression and assistance in resolving their protracted border dispute. Trump’s attention could be piqued due to the mineral aspect and his obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

Just like Egypt is financially dependent on the UAE and Saudi Arabia, so too is its military dependent on US aid, so each could deter Cairo in their own way or perhaps in coordination. The point is that Egypt’s latest hegemonic plot, which is the continuation of its long-running goal to subjugate and then “Balkanize” the Horn of Africa’s Ethiopian core, could be thwarted through its patrons’ influence. The greater their stakes in Ethiopia, the greater their will in deterring their junior partner could become.

The parallel Emirati-Saudi and US tracks complement one another. The first pair are BRICS affiliates (the UAE is a formal member like Ethiopia and Egypt while the second’s official status is ambiguous) so a “mini-lateral” could form between them all within this group for preventing intra-BRICS conflict. As for the US, Trump is paranoid that BRICS is conspiring to topple the dollar, so Ethiopia’s prospective proposal for a Congolese-like economic-security deal could reassure him of its intentions and reduce US pressure.

Altogether, this creative Ethiopian diplomacy might deter an Egyptian-backed Eritrean-TPLF offensive, but only if Cairo’s patrons rein in their rogue junior partner. A large-scale conflict could further destabilize the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea region, catalyze unprecedented refugee flows to Europe and the Gulf, and create a strategic opening for Somali-based terrorists to exploit. Hopefully the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the US realize that it’s better to stop Egypt now than to deal with the fallout of its plans later.