Did Trump Know About Ukraine’s Strategic Drone Strikes In Advance?

What follows are five relevant points, each accompanied by brief arguments about why they either do or do not prove that he really was aware, which’ll help readers make up their own mind.

Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes on Sunday against elements of Russia’s nuclear triad all across the country were an unprecedented provocation that risks a dramatic worsening of the conflict. Speculation has since swirled about whether Trump knew about these attacks in advance, which his Press Secretary denied. What follows are five relevant points, each accompanied by brief arguments about why they either do or do not prove that he really was aware, which’ll help readers make up their own mind:

----------

1. Trump Is Pushing For A Record Trillion-Dollar Defense Budget

* Escalating and then maintaining tensions with Russia, but importantly keeping them manageable, would create a sense of urgency in Congress for passing this record budget by year’s end and reduce opposition to it from key MAGA allies. The military-industrial complex is influential in Trump 2.0 and he himself has always boasted about how powerful he wants the US Armed Forces to become. He might thus have known about Ukraine’s drone strike plans in advance but didn’t call them off for this reason.

- Trump has invested a lot of political capital in trying to de-escalate tensions with Russia and caught tons of flak as a result, yet he still officially remains committed to it (at least for now), thus suggesting sincerity. As regards his proposed defense budget, it might be more about preparing the US for war with China, not waging another forever war against Russia by proxy. There’s also wide congressional approval for containing China so his defense budget likely doesn’t need escalated tensions with Russia to pass.

2. Trump Surprisingly Patched Up His Problems With Zelensky

* The minerals deal, Trump’s latest in-person meeting with Zelensky at the Vatican, and the influence of the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) might have combined to reshape Trump’s perception of both Zelensky and Putin. It might therefore be that while Trump talks about peace with Putin in public, he’s plotting against him during talks with Zelensky. Their latest in-person meeting could have even seen Trump approve of Zelensky’s strategic drone strike plans.

- Trump is profit-minded and mercurial so it makes sense that his attitude towards Zelensky changed for the better after the minerals deal was finally signed. Likewise, his inability to reach any similar or more significant deals with Putin – which are dependent on first freezing or resolving the Ukrainian Conflict – accounts for his newly harsh rhetoric about him. Had Trump known about Zelensky’s plans in advance, then he’d have called them off so as to not risk losing these potential deals with Putin in the aftermath.

3. Trump Warned That “REALLY BAD” Things Might Soon Happen To Russia

* His scandalous post came less than a week before Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes and might have thus meant to foreshadow this unprecedented provocation, albeit in a “plausibly deniable” way for escalation-control purposes. Trump could have also wanted to signal to Putin that he’d better accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or else. If that’s really what happened, then he might be preparing another such post for the same reason, which he’d hope might then pressure Putin into concessions.

- Critics claim that Trump sometimes bluffs as a negotiating tactic so this might have been one example of that in practice on the world’s stage. The wording and timing coincidentally served the relevant interests of the Biden-era “deep state” that could have cooked up this unprecedented provocation long ago without him ever finding out, however, given that it might implicate Trump in Putin’s eyes. In that event, the peace process might collapse, and Trump might thus escalate in response just like they want.

4. Axios Initially Claimed That Ukraine Informed The US In Advance

* Although Axios later corrected its report to note that Ukraine did not inform the US in advance, its initial claim might have been accurate, but understandable escalation-control concerns vis-à-vis Russia could have prompted the White House to urgently request that they change it. Axios might have voluntarily complied for national security reasons or because it was coerced with legal threats. In any case, this incident convinced some people that Trump really was aware of Ukraine’s plans in advance.

- Axios either made an innocent error in its initial report that was then swiftly corrected, or this was a preplanned provocation by Democrat-loyal elements of the “deep state” to falsely implicate Trump. If the second scenario is what happened, then the purpose would have been to convince Putin that Trump really was aware of Ukraine’s plans in advance, which could then trigger the peace process’ collapse. Even so, Russia is well aware of the “deep state’s” tricks, so it might not fall for this latest possible one.

5. Trump Has Remained Suspiciously Silent About These Attacks

* For someone who seems to always have an opinion about everything, even the most mundane and random things, Trump hasn’t yet said a word about Ukraine’s unprecedented provocation against Russia. His suspicious silence is thus being interpreted by some as tacit approval. After all, these strategic drone strikes risk triggering the collapse of the peace process into which he’s already invested so much political capital, so it follows that he’d have condemned Ukraine by now if he was really against what it did.

- Trump might have been caught off guard by this just as much as Putin was if the Biden-era “deep state” really did cook this up long ago without him ever finding out. Therefore, both of them might have agreed – whether during an unreported phone call on Sunday or during their top diplomats’ one that same day – to play it cool while jointly investigating, thus keeping the peace process alive for now. In that case, Trump’s silence would be temporary, and Putin would already know not to misconstrue it as acceptance.

----------

The answer to the question of whether Trump knew about Ukraine’s strategic strikes in advance will determine the extent of Russia’s retaliation and whether it remains involved in the peace process. The best-case scenario from Russia’s perspective is that Putin becomes convinced that Trump didn’t know and that he then acts against those in his government that did, while the worst-case scenario is Putin concluding that Trump knew and either approved it, didn’t care, or couldn’t stop it but didn’t inform him.