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Nakayama's avatar

I think it is really hard to argue that Trump did not know the plan beforehand.

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Sanjay Mehta's avatar

Agreed.

Trump dropped a hint one day, then this happens and now he’s quiet? For someone addicted to sloganeering, this is very unusual.

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Pramod's avatar

Whether Trump knew or not is now wholly impertinent to the question of how Russia should respond. The US was involved, so was the EU and England; it does not matter whatever name one might chose to call the perpetrator by, deep state, homeland security whatever. What matters is the countries that were involved.

Of course, the bee bee see and usual suspects will try to absolve the perpetrators of culpability by spinning the tale that it was the ENTITY (of Tinsel Town fame) which did it!

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barnabus's avatar

My 2 pennies would be also to ignore it, even if the USA knew. I mean, what would you do if you don't ignore it? I think Russians are happier if US forces are not openly involved in fighting in Ukraine.

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Dejan Mihailovic's avatar

Does it really matter? Putin should not trust anybody of the present generation of Western politicians.

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Herman's avatar

According to Larry Johnson, Pete Hegseth was watching the attacks in real time. That means that he must have known about them in advance. When Hegseth knew about it, Trump must have been in the picture as well.

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LudwigF's avatar

Well, if he didn’t know, he should have known, so it reflects very poorly on him either way.

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J.Davis's avatar

Trump is a figurehead, like Charles of England, and it doesn't matter if he knew. The ruling establishment of the US, often called the National Security State, did know about the attacks, because it planned, funded and directed them.

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Tony Long's avatar

I'd only push back on your conclusion. The best-case scenario for Russia is that Putin believes Trump knew in advance (which, as president, he almost certainly did). Presumably, that would allow the Russians to wash their hands of these so-called negotiations, which are a waste of time anyway, and get on with the real business at hand: winning the war.

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M Rothschild's avatar

Did Trump know beforehand about the drone strikes against the Russian nuclear bomber fleet?

Assuming that Trump was unaware, then you must expect that someone in the MIC/deep state will have to take a fall for this provocation. If no one is publicly punished then I think the unescapable conclusion must be that either Trump knew before or approved after the fact.

If Trump either knew before or approved after the fact, then his credibility will take a huge hit. You know, credibility and honesty are very precious. We all know that Trump exaggerates and we expect puffery whenever he speaks. His (always intentionally vague) claims about the (stolen) 2020 election are safely inside the zone of opinion/puffery, but importantly, he has never been shown to have clearly lied about a significant and objective fact.

It's easy to become know as a liar, all you have to do is lie once about something important that you did and then be caught in the lie. Once you become known as a liar, you are a liar for life. No one will trust anything you say ever again. Needless to say, diplomacy, which requires a modicum of trust is impossible for a known liar.

Trump has a small window of opportunity to wrap this up in a way that preserves his credibility. Deep state heads must roll, or Trump must take responsibility. Either outcome is preferable to the otherwise unescapable conclusion that Trump is a liar.

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Ladyc's avatar

Unless this is a trap set up to flush out bad actors in the US and maybe UK. Or more likely, to give Trump the excuse to walk away from Ukraine. Last night Trump ‘truthed’ about talking with Putin and getting his help on Iran. The translation of that might mean: if Russia stops helping Iran, Trump will give up on Ukraine.

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barnabus's avatar

Well, Trump could assume responsibility for blowing up Northstream under Biden. But again, what would it help?

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Stevo Živak's avatar

No this is controlled conflict with maffia jw in the west end east , oligarchs end big business corporations. Wek Up !!! No one has taken Russia's red lines seriously for a long time. Next, the Taurus will fly to Moscow.Wake up!

Russia has already been attacked.

The war is already being waged on the Russian .

It's just going in stages!

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Pramod's avatar

There were some initial reports suggesting that at least some of the drones which converged on Olenya Airbase had entered Russia by approaching from Finnish airspace, and that a German made Taurus missile (which can only be operated via real time satellite guidance and only by German technicians based in makeshift NATO command centres in Germany and Czechia) launched perhaps from Ukrainian soil had struck the airbase at Belaya in mid-eastern Siberia

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James Schwartz's avatar

Axios is a lefty dem controlled publication and has done nothing but run stories slamming Trump and his administration. The fact that they changed the story would say they got it wrong or a legal threat. They surely have no interest in doing Trump any favors. It’s shocking to me how these left wing newspapers are cheering this event. They will destroy the world to make Trump look bad. If nuclear war broke out they seriously would cheer over it as it forced a US response. The deep state is running desperate and pulling out all the stops. I’d be looking at Starmer and Macron plus others in the EU. The recent election in Poland shows how the world is done with this globalist Marxist ideology. I was actually surprised they didn’t come in a void the election. The riot that would’ve resulted from that obviously prevented it. Poland now will forge a closer alliance with the US halting France’s plans.

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Borges's avatar

Do not confuse "Marxism" with "Globalism". Marx, if you have actually read him, is a theoretician who wrote about the Capitalist Mode of Production, notably about ECONOMY! It is a critique of this Economic System that has brought us here with the real possibility of annihilation of the "sapiens"! There is not a single line in Marx about IDENTITARIANISM, or moral and customary guidelines. Do not confuse Marx with the Policies of the US Democratic Party!! Do not fall into the trap of ignorance promoted by the mass media to those who are not well-read!

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Kennewick Man's avatar

Marx has written over a hundred books and I refused to read every one of them. Regardless, I am familiar with his basic guidelines, principles and fundamental mistakes. That very nice jewish kid was suffering from a God complex and just kept writing like an AI manufacturing instrument. In the commie bloc nations it was mandatory over a certain rank for each party officer to have Marx’s books in red leader binding to be carried on the shelves. When it was revolution time the rebels used the books to bulletproof doors. Marx was a serial bullshitter, not an accident the British allowed him to survive there after various European countries kicked him out.

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James Schwartz's avatar

Yes, I’ve been a bit lax combining the globalists with Marx. Schwab believes we will own nothing and eat bugs and like it. Marx gets dumped in the lot and shouldn’t because it is lazy. I try not to be a parrot of the MSM. Honestly, I don’t watch much TV news and have zero social media presence but read several newspapers which keeps me informed. I find they have intersecting qualities but it is different. Thanks for the call out.

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galen's avatar

There is no such thing as a "globalist Marxist ideology". The US Imperialist system rules the world. It's ideology is neo-liberalism, and its ruling class is the financial capitalist class. If you want to find Marxists, go to China or Vietnam.

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Eve's avatar

Re: Trump, he is a polarizing figure. A Mexican historian, who has written a great deal about US history, sees Trump as no different than any prior President in his policies re: Israel, whereas many Trump supporters see Trump as the most friendly to Israel President in our history. Those are two very divergent views.

The historian, Francisco Gil-White substantiates his argument well in a four part article series, the 4th of which is here:https://franciscogilwhite.substack.com/p/part-4-is-trump-for-real-trump-20s

What does this have to do with Ukraine? Here too there are arguments to be made on both sides of the issue as Mr. Korybko shows us in this article.

Thus those who support Trump will be convinced that he did not know in advance. Those who have been skeptical of Trump or who disagree with all of his policies will likely believe he knew in advance and lied about it.

The fact of his silence on the subject means anyone can read just about anything into it.

I have been a Trump supporter but recently I have had some doubts and concerns about the actions taken by Trump so far in this administration, which means that I'm open to considering a range of views on this subject. When someone's words and actions don't match I generally look at their actions.

There is information in the public domain about the fact that the CIA has been operating as a rogue, secretive, and destructive agency not even nominally under Congressional oversight since its inception in 1948. Since the CIA has been responsible for the assassination of President JFK and Presidential candidate RFK, it is clear that the CIA can override the instructions of a President or act in ways that contradict a President's stated policy.

Here are a couple of questions:

1. Which is more damning of President Trump: that he has been made impotent by a federal executive agency or that he knew in advance and was okay with the attack on Russia?

2. Which is more frightening for Americans: that the CIA is in control of our government and our President does not have their permission to stop the war or our President has gaslit us about many things, including his interest in peace in Ukraine?

The people of America have considered that they are sovereigns of this country and have the power to elect a President and through that power are able to transmit our ideas regarding which policies we think will be most likely to benefit Americans. But if the CIA can undo an election by either assassinating a President, by character assassinating him, or by simply doing whatever they want to do despite the President's overt policy stand, it means our trust has been betrayed and we do not have any power at all. Similarly, if a President can get elected by gaslighting his supporters, and once elected, do all kinds of things at odds with what he promised, again we the people have been betrayed.

The people who are firmly supporters of Trump no matter what, believe exposures of all the criminals who got us to this point in our history are about to begin any day now.....we the people are ....

waiting.

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LJones's avatar

Many of us failed to take the original NATO expansion debate seriously or the efforts of Reagan/Bush to put missiles in Poland. All these actions somehow led to today's attitude that either 1/ nuclear war is survivable or winnable or 2/ that "The Russian's don't dont have the stones to pull the trigger."

Many of us would have viewed an immediate tactical nuke on Kiev would have been an entirely appropriate response. We call it FAFO. The benefit would have been in eliminating any doubt on 2/ above.

I've long wondered what the ultimate goal of those idiot neocons truly is. It makes no sense, imo, to ascribe the west's bizarre behavior to "hating Russians" or to think risking nuclear war to steal Russia's resources makes any sense at all.

It almost seems like the crazy donkey behavior of the west is meant to motivate formation of a global govt, where arms control can be reconstituted and, critically for Europe, where Europe retains a seat at the high table. If this is right, I hope Mr Putin, as much as he does believe in global cooperation and agreements, exercises a hard veto. Any world in which the current nutbars retain power vastly diminishes if not eliminates the human spirit.

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Feral Finster's avatar

I think that 2/ is assumed to be the case.

Besides, an tactical nuclear attack on Kiev would cause rejoicing in NATO. Russian impotence would be on full display ("the only way they could win was to use nukes!"), any remaining Russian goodwill would evaporate, overnight, and the US and Israel would use this as a greenlight to use nuclear weapons on Iran.

Not fair? Nope.

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Feral Finster's avatar

N.b. the West sees Russian reticence not as reasonableness or humanitarianism, but as contemptible weakness to be mercilessly exploited.

The story of Jadis, Empress of Charn in "The Magician's Nephew" is quite on-point.

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LJones's avatar

What do you think of this thesis:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qg2Ig72tQ24

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Feral Finster's avatar

Could you please summarize?

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LJones's avatar

Prof Brodkin thesis that Putin and Trump basically agreed Russia's proposal for a cease fire in accordance with the memo handed to Ukraine. Ie, the memo was for Trump and Trump basically accepted. His argument is well-supported, though it suggests a battle brewing inside the US govt.

Sorry... I dont like clicking links either.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Even if Trump were to reach an agreement, he remains weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He cannot keep his word from breakfast through lunch, especially not if some person with a contrary opinion talked to him in the meantime,

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Julian Hudson's avatar

It matters not whether Trump knew or didn't know. What matters is that it happened on his watch and he didn't stop it. Either choice makes him look bad.

If he didn't know then that means he isn't in control of his intelligence agencies, his people in NATO or the Europeans. Such a lack of control would mean that there is a heightened risk of this war getting even more out of hand than it just did.

The fact that Trump didn't immediately not only come out with a flat out denial of knowing or any denunciation of the action nor announce that an investigation would be launched into his Cabinet members and intelligence agencies seems to demonstrate a high level of intellectual and moral disinterest.

It could also signal that he did know and had no interest in any investigations because he didn't want himself or the U.S. exposed.

It's highly improbable that someone within his administration, NATO or military didn't know about this and either deliberately didn't tell him so that Trump could have plausible denialbility or that he knew and is lying. Lying isn't a trait that is beyond Trump to do.

The fact that he remained silent for so long could also be an indication that he knew. Since Trump has a proclivity to speak without thinking and to sometimes allow the truth to come out its possible he was advised to remain quiet. In that case his words that he was preventing really bad things from happening to Russia were foreshadowing the attack.

If Trump didn't know then that's no better of a choice because it shows that he isn't in control. And that means other people are pulling his strings which means we're back to a Biden presidency where the members of his cabinet are running the show.

If that is the situation then there's no point in Putin continuing with the talks because Trump isn't in charge and therefore Putin is bargaining with an unknown entity.

There's no way Trump looks good under either scenario.

These drone attacks on the airglfields were acts of war. I disagree with any ideal that says they were legitimate targets. Targeting them was as much an act of war as it was to target the early warning radar prior. Blinding or disabling any component of a nuclear power's triad is an act of war. Because the only thing that the targeted country can think is that it is under a nuclear attack. This is true especially since the U.S. has a first strike nuclear doctrine whereas neither Russia nor China do.

I Ukraine did indeed act on its own, which it actually can't do because it relies on inputs that only the U.S. can provide, then this should drive the U.S. to cease all aide to Ukraine. The U.S. can't be supporting a country that is trying to ignite nuclear Armageddon. If the U.S. cares about its people more than making a point about its resolve..

The attacks against the rail lines and the Kerch Bridge were acts of terrorism. Acts of terrorism are all that Ukraine has left because its army no longer functions. These are cheap shots but they do kill. Killing for likings sake.

Working with terrorists is something the U.S. has no problems with. America's level of morality isn't very high. It preaches morality but doesn't practice it. It is in that sense that Ukraine and the U.S. have a perfect union. Neither cares about the consequences of their actions as long as their hatred is satisfied.

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Ed's avatar

Trump knew, or he is not running the war!

Either way Russia cannot trust the empire.

Kiev's plucky genius, supermen (descended from their waffen SS vols for Hitler) could not do any long range event with out US' C4I: real time satellite connected high pedigree battle space!

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marco aureollo's avatar

The question is whether there was a secret plan behind these provocative attacks. It is possible that the aim was to goad Russia into overreaction in a form of a devastating counterattack which the instigators could then use as a pretext for tactical nuclear attack on Russia or to force NATO to engage directly in the conflict. If this was an original plan then it did not succeed as less than 10% of the Russian airborne nuclear deterrent was destoyed or damaged. If this was MI6 idea than CIA had a plausible deniability and Trump might not have known anything about it.

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Ladyc's avatar

There might also have been a secret plan by others in Trumpland to use the attack to drop Ukraine in exchange for Russians cutting off or putting pressure on Iran to accept a deal.

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Pramod's avatar

The airbases of Russia's strategic nuclear fleet at Olenya in the Arctic and Belaya in Siberia are part of the list of strategic assetts which have long been disclosed by the USA and Russia to each other as part of Confidence Building Measures for lowering of nuclear threshold, and are continuously monitored by the opposite party for any suspicious movement of readying up for a strategic strike. Under George Bush Jr, American bombers had obtained high resolution photographs and telemetry data pertaining to those bases using German equipment mounted on American B 52 bombers which had overflown Russia approaching from the North Pole enroute Afghanistan on sorties for bombing Bin Laden post 9/11. Without an iota of doubt, the government or the deep state of the USA has treacherously betrayed its agreement with Russia and weaponised the previliged info it had accessed thanks to that agreement, by providing real time details of location co-ordinates of those Russia bases to the Ukrainian Army for launching bombings. This situation is no different than the spectre of USA launching a decapitation strike on those bases using nuclear tipped ICBM's or hypersonic vehicles, treacherously catching Russia unawares.

And if such an attack has been effected illegitimately via hijack of civilian transport, it is no different than ramming a hijacked jetliner into the Empire State building with a knapsack nuke on board.

If such a "gimmick" as it is being treated casually by Western media had been pulled off anywhere with the USA on the receiving end, you can bet a trillion pounds that the USA would have unfailingly placed a nuclear bounty even on the heads of any diplomats involved. The least the EU should do now is to surrender suspects sought by Russia to the FSB. Else don't lament the consequences.

Russia should issue a Red Corner International notice for the criminal individuals suspected of having pulled this operation off, as well as their collaborators plus any journalists who might have interviewed them in secret whilst refusing to disclose the location to Russian law enforcement or FSB. Countries harbouring such persons have a moral obligation to hand them over promptly to Russia, failing which the habitats of all such persons should be dealt with as legitimate nuclear targets.

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barnabus's avatar

Those strategic bombers were white elephants. No chance they would have survived to deliver their payload over continental US. For that, Russia is correct only to rely on long-range missiles.

What had been more important were early warning stations in Western Siberia etc that would have picked up signals of missiles flying in from the South. But these were attacked last year, under Biden's term.

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Pramod's avatar

The Deep State is known to sabotage the American President's initiatives from previous history, but the attack on Olenya and Belaya strategic airbase is no act of war, but a case of very grave transnational crime of potentially holocaustic proportions because it is one calculated to trigger nuclear war. It is exactly of the kind of a hypothetical spectre in which a Cuban national smuggles a knapsack nuke into the USA, and passes it on to couriers until it is finally exploded at Ft Langley.

If, as Ukraine has claimed, Israeli drones were smuggled in wooden casings into Russia and then mounted clandestinely onto trucks by secret agents without knowledge of truck operators and truck drivers, and when the trucks reached some spot within range of the intended targets, the drones suddenly took off from the truck roofs and bombed the Russian bases, then this plot which is a ripoff from the Mossad leaf book, is actually a very serious instance of cross-country crime. Without a shred of doubt, those drones needed US or European satellite guidance via GPS to determine when point of preplanned takeoff had been reached during their passive piggyback ride on those trucks. Simply put, in terms of gravity of the crime it is akin to someone smuggling a knapsack nuke into Hanover airport in cargo bay of a passenger jetliner maybe Lufthansa, and then that nuke getting shifted in a check in bag into the airport and thence onward to some building or secluded open plot of land, and going boom kaput. Actually, all of this botheration is not even needed. An Oreshnik or Yakhont can do a much cleaner job without all of this cumbersome process, and the eventual firecracker burst can be spinned off as a tale of the smuggled knapsack. It makes no difference because any narrative will do so long as it amuses the audience. And perfectly legitimate, because precedent has been set by the EU already. So, don't be surprised to feel an earthquake of sorts at places you never suspected anytime from now. May Europe RIP.

What the EU has just done in Russia is no legitimate act of war. It is an instance of hijack and misuse of civilian transport and ports of call in a foreign nuclear-armed country with the motive of precipitating a global

nuclear catastrophe. It is a grave crime against humanity that merits an asymmetrical form of punishment to mete justice. Unlike legitimate belligerent acts of war, the doctrine of graded escalation does not govern the probable counter-response in such a case; in fact all moral compunctions about refraining from escalation cease to hold in this case.Even a tiny country like Israel has a doctrine of considering an attack on its nuclear arsenal as akin to a nuclear attack, and so does the UK and USA, because such a situation potentially threatens to upset the strategic balance of nuclear parity so crucial to MAD deterrence. And if such an attack has been effected illegitimately via hijack of civilian transport, it is no different than ramming a hijacked jetliner into the Empire State building with a knapsack nuke on board.

Any charade of circular peace talks with the EU or US becomes essentially pointless at this time. Russia should now go its own way, without the encumbrance of letting staged outcomes of farcical negotiations restrict the freedom of its operational strategy. Today Ukraine is saying that it had been planning meticulously for executing this (grave terrorist) operation. Well, Ukrainians had been boasting (or bluffing) two years ago that they can hijack ICBM's of Russia by means of recourse to flyby's with ECM-enabled drones. So what? Does this mean Ukraine has plans underway to MISfire Russian ICBM's with their nuclear payloads and all at maybe Africa or somewhere to render them expended without loss of European lives. Africans who might perish in the nuclear inferno are legitimate collateral casualties for the cause of a greater good? Well, there is urgent need to stop a madman gone berserk by any means, even if it amounts to a shower of lollies upon Europe with Oreshniks. Those who have executed this dastardly operation cannot be treated as PoW's upon capture. They are grave criminals and Russia ought to issue Red corner notices for their arrest. Any EU country harbouring and sheltering the suspects such as Artem Timofei should be treated to a sumptuous feast with nukes.

There were some initial reports suggesting that at least some of the drones which converged on Olenya Airbase had entered Russia by approaching from Finnish airspace, and that a German made Taurus missile (which can only be operated via real time satellite guidance and only by German technicians based

in makeshift NATO command centres in Germany and Czechia) launched perhaps from Ukrainian soil had struck the airbase at Belaya in mid-eastern Siberia.

The airbases of Russia's strategic nuclear fleet at Olenya in the Arctic and Belaya in Siberia are part of the list of strategic assetts which have long been disclosed by the USA and Russia to each other as part of Confidence Building Measures for lowering of nuclear threshold, and are continuously monitored by the opposite party for any suspicious movement of readying up for a strategic strike. Under George Bush Jr, American bombers had obtained high resolution photographs and telemetry data pertaining to those bases using German equipment mounted on American B 52 bombers which had overflown Russia approaching from the North Pole enroute Afghanistan on sorties for bombing Bin Laden post 9/11. Without an iota of doubt, the government or the deep state of the USA has treacherously betrayed its agreement with Russia and weaponised the previliged info it had accessed thanks to that agreement, by providing real time details of location co-ordinates of those Russia bases to the Ukrainian Army for launching bombings. This situation is no different than the spectre of USA launching a decapitation strike on those bases using nuclear tipped ICBM's or hypersonic vehicles, treacherously catching Russia unawares.

And if such an attack has been effected illegitimately via hijack of civilian transport, it is no different than ramming a hijacked jetliner into the Empire State building with a knapsack nuke on board.

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