Did Ukraine Really Break Through Into Russia’s Belgorod Region?

Whatever it might have achieved isn’t militarily significant enough to warrant much attention.

Conflicting reports have circulated about whether or not Ukrainian forces had broken through into Russia’s Belgorod Region after a Russian counteroffensive pushed most of them out of Kursk Region. Commander of the US’ European Command General Christopher Cavoli told a congressional hearing last week that “[the Ukrainians are] holding on very good defensive terrain south of there in Belgorod”, which was echoed by Zelensky during his nightly video address on Monday.

Their comments were contradicted by Russian Lieutenant-General Apty Alaudinov. He told national TV last week that “In general, we are in a relatively good situation. Just two weeks ago, the enemy tried once again to break through our border and advance deeper into the Belgorod Region. Everything is under control now, and these areas are being cleared. The enemy continues to send in more and more cannon fodder, though they suffer heavy losses daily.”

Reuters cited Russian milbloggers last month to report on the action taking place along that front, while the DC-based Institute for the Study of War claimed over the weekend that Ukrainian forces are still occupying a sliver of Belgorod Region but haven’t advanced. Without any truly independent reporting from there, observers are compelled to employ logic and intuition in their attempt to figure out what’s really happening, though they obviously can’t know for sure whether their assessment is correct.

From the looks of it though, Ukraine redirected some of its retreating forces from Kursk into neighboring Belgorod in order to keep up the pressure on Russia, which Kiev likely calculates can either stall the expansion of Russia’s ground campaign into Sumy and/or Kharkov and/or become a chip in peace talks. Nevertheless, they don’t seem to have made much on-the-ground progress, if any at all. Whatever they might have achieved isn’t too militarily significant otherwise it would be trumpeted by pro-Kiev trolls.

After all, they’re infamous for exaggerating the strategic impact of every move that their side makes, yet their online chatter about the latest action around Belgorod is conspicuously muted. The same goes for the Mainstream Media’s reports. This observation suggests that Ukraine’s offensive there hasn’t been as successful as they hoped, which in turn lends credence to Alaudinov’s claims, though it’s also hypothetically possible that some foreign troops still remain on a sliver of Russian soil there.

In any case, it would be inaccurate to describe the latest military developments along that front as a breakthrough since they come off as more of a desperate distraction by Ukraine than anything else. Russia is winning the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” by far, and the success of its recent counteroffensive in Kursk will likely be replicated in Belgorod with time if any Ukrainian troops are there. Therefore, this is a lost cause and a waste of resources for Kiev, yet such escapades are expected from it.

As the military-strategic dynamics continue trending in Russia’s favor, more such suicide missions can’t be ruled out, though they’re not anticipated to achieve anything significant due to the absence of 2023-like levels of Western military aid that Ukraine received in the run-up to its doomed counteroffensive. Russia also learned hard lessons from Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk that’ll likely be put to use to prevent another such breakthrough. These factors greatly increase the odds of Ukraine’s inevitable defeat.