A very good analysis, Andrew, as is usually the case! I can only fathom the “much more likely” scenario that you mentioned, where Putin and Lukashenko had already discussed this previously.
Do you have any sense of how popular or unpopular Lukashenko is within Belarus? He’s been the only president they’ve ever had so wondering if everyone’s as happy with him as he claims they are.
My reading is that he's genuinely popular, which is due to a combination of Russian subsidies for the Belarusian economy and his effective management thereof.
Some people, especially youth, will always fantasize about political change, further improving the economy, etc., but that brief and partially foreign-backed moment from summer 2020 has long passed the point of crisis.
Of course, Color Revolutions always remain a Damocles' sword over the head of non-Western states' leaders who refuse to capitulate to the US, but I don't assess it as pressing in Belarus.
He might be popular if people of Belarus are aware that before 2021, GDP of their country was twice the size of Ukrainian - a country with much more resources and agricultural land that followed the Western scenario of economic growth and “prosperity”.
From what I read, it looks like Belarus was able to keep its industries from the time of USSR and to grow a robust IT sector.
if Belarus submit themself to us bandits and zionist beast on the leash, it will means that Lukashenko stupid. Unfortunately this is created by the incompetence of putin. Initially I believed that Putin is very intelligent and smart. However based on his actions in ukrabandera, Syria and now in Iran, I think that putin is controlled by zionist ashkeNAZI iSSrahellites. Pls refresh your knowledge about geopolitics and Brzezinski book "The Grand Chessboard" page 53. Iran is underbelly of Russia and the collapse of Iran means the end of Russia. Lukashenko playing game: "who is stronger". The loss of Iran, means that Belarus joins us bandits group managed by zionist banditic issrahellites.
End of Russia? Or China? Don’t take the neocons “wet dreams” seriously. Also, Brzeziński was not a genius he and some around him claimed he was. Just a regular anticommi. In the US, they are $1 for a dozen.
Any notion that the U.S. is sincerely interested in relaxing its attempts to overthrow Russia is clearly foolish. There's zero chance that the arrogant Americans have any plan to allow any opposing nation to exist.
Haven't Lukashenko and Putin had enough of this insanity yet. Clearly it's impossible for the U.S. to bargain in good faith. The most recent attacks on the Russian nuclear air triad, it's agreement with Kazakhstan, and the attacks on the Iranian nuclear facilities show that the U.S. is so obsessed with eliminating all peers and near peers that it is willing to gamble with its own existence in order to inflict a strategic defeat on any who oppose it.
This is a fight to the death. Stop wasting time with kind words, pointless meetings etc. Misdirection is a negotiating tactic for the U.S. Misdirection is their polite word for lying. Lying is their strategy. They aren't to be trusted. The men in the Black suits hold all the power.
A wolf attacked a house and tried to carry away a young boy. The homeowner gave the big bad wolf a beating to the point the wolf dropped his loot and slipped away. The next day, the homeowner found the big bad wolf had come to the other end of the house looking for an entrance. Should the homeowner play dumb or reach for his shotgun?
Lukashenko needs to remember that he can't believe a word Trump says. Hopefully Putin will remind him of that, seing as Putin knows Trump better than any other world leader does.
An analysis with substance, especially since Lukashenko is a tactician, drove him into a corner in 2020. Once again the West tried to create facts through a color revolution. You ask yourself how many times you want to repeat the mistake, instead of acting patiently and achieving your goals, you keep trying with the crowbar, which also includes sanctions. Since the people in Belarus and increasingly in Ukraine recognize that this is a dead end that places all the burdens on them, they prefer to turn east. If you look at Russia in the 90's and today this is a huge difference, Belarusians and Ukrainians are increasingly seeing it.
A very good analysis, Andrew, as is usually the case! I can only fathom the “much more likely” scenario that you mentioned, where Putin and Lukashenko had already discussed this previously.
Thanks for this.
Do you have any sense of how popular or unpopular Lukashenko is within Belarus? He’s been the only president they’ve ever had so wondering if everyone’s as happy with him as he claims they are.
My reading is that he's genuinely popular, which is due to a combination of Russian subsidies for the Belarusian economy and his effective management thereof.
Some people, especially youth, will always fantasize about political change, further improving the economy, etc., but that brief and partially foreign-backed moment from summer 2020 has long passed the point of crisis.
Of course, Color Revolutions always remain a Damocles' sword over the head of non-Western states' leaders who refuse to capitulate to the US, but I don't assess it as pressing in Belarus.
Thank you very much.
He might be popular if people of Belarus are aware that before 2021, GDP of their country was twice the size of Ukrainian - a country with much more resources and agricultural land that followed the Western scenario of economic growth and “prosperity”.
From what I read, it looks like Belarus was able to keep its industries from the time of USSR and to grow a robust IT sector.
To answer the question posed in the headline? Of course the United States seeks to divide and rule.
Lukashenko would be foolish to take the bait.
if Belarus submit themself to us bandits and zionist beast on the leash, it will means that Lukashenko stupid. Unfortunately this is created by the incompetence of putin. Initially I believed that Putin is very intelligent and smart. However based on his actions in ukrabandera, Syria and now in Iran, I think that putin is controlled by zionist ashkeNAZI iSSrahellites. Pls refresh your knowledge about geopolitics and Brzezinski book "The Grand Chessboard" page 53. Iran is underbelly of Russia and the collapse of Iran means the end of Russia. Lukashenko playing game: "who is stronger". The loss of Iran, means that Belarus joins us bandits group managed by zionist banditic issrahellites.
End of Russia? Or China? Don’t take the neocons “wet dreams” seriously. Also, Brzeziński was not a genius he and some around him claimed he was. Just a regular anticommi. In the US, they are $1 for a dozen.
Any notion that the U.S. is sincerely interested in relaxing its attempts to overthrow Russia is clearly foolish. There's zero chance that the arrogant Americans have any plan to allow any opposing nation to exist.
Haven't Lukashenko and Putin had enough of this insanity yet. Clearly it's impossible for the U.S. to bargain in good faith. The most recent attacks on the Russian nuclear air triad, it's agreement with Kazakhstan, and the attacks on the Iranian nuclear facilities show that the U.S. is so obsessed with eliminating all peers and near peers that it is willing to gamble with its own existence in order to inflict a strategic defeat on any who oppose it.
This is a fight to the death. Stop wasting time with kind words, pointless meetings etc. Misdirection is a negotiating tactic for the U.S. Misdirection is their polite word for lying. Lying is their strategy. They aren't to be trusted. The men in the Black suits hold all the power.
A wolf attacked a house and tried to carry away a young boy. The homeowner gave the big bad wolf a beating to the point the wolf dropped his loot and slipped away. The next day, the homeowner found the big bad wolf had come to the other end of the house looking for an entrance. Should the homeowner play dumb or reach for his shotgun?
Lukashenko needs to remember that he can't believe a word Trump says. Hopefully Putin will remind him of that, seing as Putin knows Trump better than any other world leader does.
An analysis with substance, especially since Lukashenko is a tactician, drove him into a corner in 2020. Once again the West tried to create facts through a color revolution. You ask yourself how many times you want to repeat the mistake, instead of acting patiently and achieving your goals, you keep trying with the crowbar, which also includes sanctions. Since the people in Belarus and increasingly in Ukraine recognize that this is a dead end that places all the burdens on them, they prefer to turn east. If you look at Russia in the 90's and today this is a huge difference, Belarusians and Ukrainians are increasingly seeing it.
Lukashenko is old Marxsit