Estonia’s Airspace Violation Allegation Against Russia Is Politically Self-Serving

It’s difficult to believe that Russia would so brazenly provoke NATO at the risk of ruining talks with the US and consequently escalating tensions, but that’s what some want Trump to think so that he’ll respond to the three such claims this month thus far in precisely that way.

Western officials are unnerved after Estonia alleged that Russian jets violated its airspace above the Gulf of Finland last week for a total of 12 minutes. They’re convinced that this was a deliberate provocation against NATO that must be responded to otherwise it risks further emboldening Russia. The Lithuanian Defense Minister even hinted that Russian jets should be shot out of the sky next time. Russia retorted that this was a routine flight to Kaliningrad which remained above international waters the entire time.

This allegation follows Poland blaming a Russian drone for the damage that a home incurred during this month’s incursion, which was arguably caused by NATO jamming as explained here, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s spokesperson accusing it of jamming her plane prior to that. Poland later admitted that this penultimate incident was likely caused by a Polish missile, while Western media like Politico rubbished the first one, which were respectively analyzed here and here.

The aforesaid precedents therefore legitimize skepticism of Estonia’s allegation against Russia. Shortly after they were made, Reuters published a report claiming that “Pentagon officials sat down with a group of European diplomats in late August and delivered a stern message: The U.S. planned to cut off some security assistance to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all NATO members bordering Russia.” According to them, some EU diplomats feared this could embolden Russia, which they now believe it did.

Their report takes on an altogether different significance if viewed from a cynical angle. While the intention was clearly to blame Trump for what supposedly just happened, it also lends credence to speculation that Estonia concocted a politically self-serving hoax to keep the US committed to the Baltics. Rumors swirled earlier in the year that Trump might withdraw all US troops from the region and abandon Article 5, which while unlikely as explained here, might have prompted Estonia to panic.

According, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that they took a page from Poland and von der Leyen before that to make a dramatic claim about Russia that might also inevitably fall apart under scrutiny, but which serves short-term political purposes that rally Europeans in support of more muscular policies. Estonia doesn’t just want American security aid to continue flowing into the region and for US troops to remain there, but for both to expand, including via the possible deployment of nuclear-capable F35-As.

The Estonian Defense Minister suggested this right after the latest NATO Summit, with reports circulating at the time that the UK could send some of its own there once they’re received. As explained here, they could hypothetically be equipped with US nukes since the UK no longer has its own air-to-ground ones, but such plans would be impossible if Trump curtails American security aid to the region. Estonia might therefore have cooked up this scandal to avert that scenario by keeping the US engaged in the region.

With these politically self-serving interests in mind, which are reasonable to speculate upon after the narratives about this month’s earlier Russia-related incidents were debunked, there’s a credible chance that Estonia’s allegation against Russia is yet another hoax. It’s difficult to believe that Russia would so brazenly provoke NATO at the risk of ruining talks with the US and consequently escalating tensions, but that’s what some want Trump to think so that he’ll respond to these three claims in precisely that way.