Its success depends on whether Poland agrees to the terms, which cannot include the unlimited tariff-free access of Ukrainian agricultural exports nor the free movement of its people since the ruling liberal-globalist coalition would stand to lose fall 2027’s next elections if they approve that.
Even restricted EU membership should be a red line for Russia as was NATO. Even with restricted membership Ukraine would become part of the EU's defence force which will include a NATO-like article 5. Russia should demand membership of Ukraine conditional to war-end / peace treaty with Russia plus the subsequent security architecture agreement between the EU and Russia. Anything less will certainly let in a few years time to a EU including Ukraine attacking Russia.
Russia's views on Ukraine's EU membership have oscillated from troublesome to acceptable to back to troublesome now that Russia finally realizes that the EU is simply a complement to NATO, not an alternative, but I believe that it lacks the means -- or rather the political will to employ the required means due to Putin's aversion to the possibility of an uncontrollable escalation spiral -- for coercing Ukraine and its partners into dropping this plan.
With the hardening of the EU hostility towards Russia and the subsequent EU arms race following, I noticed a growing realisation among certain Russia elitist circles to harden and thereby shorten the effort in Ukraine. Surely Putin has by now realised that he has entered Minsk-03
Ukrainians despise Putin…whatever claim Putin had on Ukraine is irrelevant now because Ukraine doesn’t want to have anything to do with Putin’s Russia. Putin is behaving like Bush with Iraq and making the sunk costs fallacy. Even if you believe Bush’s invasion of Iraq was just by 2005 it was obvious that the outcome was going to be suboptimal no matter how much blood and treasure was invested in it…so at that point it’s time to cut and run.
Ukraine gains little by joing the EU. All the EU wants is Ukraines resources. Ukraine would do much better by joing up with Russia. Results biggest country in the world ,, Russia ia a nuclear super power no one would dare get into a war with Russia. The biggest oil, gas & mineral resources of any country in the world.Same Orthodox religion, same DNA, common words in bothe languages with sligh differences here & there. Common history.
I've long felt that a big undercurrent of the Ukraine situation is that many of the oligarchs want an exit strategy for their "assets", many of which are not really going anywhere in a closed Ukraine economy.
Will be interesting to see how much a "restricted EU membership" facilitates this.
Even restricted EU membership should be a red line for Russia as was NATO. Even with restricted membership Ukraine would become part of the EU's defence force which will include a NATO-like article 5. Russia should demand membership of Ukraine conditional to war-end / peace treaty with Russia plus the subsequent security architecture agreement between the EU and Russia. Anything less will certainly let in a few years time to a EU including Ukraine attacking Russia.
Russia's views on Ukraine's EU membership have oscillated from troublesome to acceptable to back to troublesome now that Russia finally realizes that the EU is simply a complement to NATO, not an alternative, but I believe that it lacks the means -- or rather the political will to employ the required means due to Putin's aversion to the possibility of an uncontrollable escalation spiral -- for coercing Ukraine and its partners into dropping this plan.
With the hardening of the EU hostility towards Russia and the subsequent EU arms race following, I noticed a growing realisation among certain Russia elitist circles to harden and thereby shorten the effort in Ukraine. Surely Putin has by now realised that he has entered Minsk-03
So what is Russia waiting for, then?
Ukrainians despise Putin…whatever claim Putin had on Ukraine is irrelevant now because Ukraine doesn’t want to have anything to do with Putin’s Russia. Putin is behaving like Bush with Iraq and making the sunk costs fallacy. Even if you believe Bush’s invasion of Iraq was just by 2005 it was obvious that the outcome was going to be suboptimal no matter how much blood and treasure was invested in it…so at that point it’s time to cut and run.
Ukraine gains little by joing the EU. All the EU wants is Ukraines resources. Ukraine would do much better by joing up with Russia. Results biggest country in the world ,, Russia ia a nuclear super power no one would dare get into a war with Russia. The biggest oil, gas & mineral resources of any country in the world.Same Orthodox religion, same DNA, common words in bothe languages with sligh differences here & there. Common history.
I've long felt that a big undercurrent of the Ukraine situation is that many of the oligarchs want an exit strategy for their "assets", many of which are not really going anywhere in a closed Ukraine economy.
Will be interesting to see how much a "restricted EU membership" facilitates this.