Russia wants to avoid falling into the UK’s trap for sabotaging its rapprochement with the US by credibly threatening military force against Estonia in response to this provocation, but Putin’s patience might run out if the US is unable or unwilling to prevent its partners from staging repeat incidents.
Allowing this encroachment in the hopes of currying Trump's favor is pathetic. The US is a thug; so is Trump, the bombing of Yemen should dispel any doubts about that. A thug will interpret any attempts at civility as an admission of weakness, pure and simple, and will only be encouraged to step up the bullying.
What Russia ought to do, is issue an advisory to Russian nationals in Estonia (via radio and TV stations near the border that Estonian Russians tune in to routinely) asking them to evacuate Estonia with all possible haste, and stating that Russia disclaims any responsibility for their safety if they remain. And keep repeating that advisory. This is not a threat, and is not illegal; the US State Department issues such advisories routinely to Americans in the world's "hot spots", Lebanon most recently.
But the implications of that repeated announcement are likely to pour cold water down Estonian spines much more effectively than any explicit threat.
And if any Russian nationals follow that advice, so much the better; Russia will gain new loyal citizens, and it should not be an exorbitant expense to provide these refugees with work and accommodation.
"Allowing this encroachment in the hopes of currying Trump's favor is pathetic. The US is a thug; so is Trump, the bombing of Yemen should dispel any doubts about that."
Of course the United States and Trump are thugs. Doesn't matter, as long as the Estonians and the eurosponsors get what they want.
If Russia does not give the desired response to the provocation, Estonia and its sponsors will simply behave more outrageously until they get what they wanted.
This is the inevitable result of Russian dithering and indecision.
International law takes precedence over Estonian domestic legislation, so it would be open to Russia to bring a case against Estonia in whatever court or tribunal has jurisdiction over such matters, especially if the seizure took place in international waters, although this would be unlikely to have much effect beyond causing Estonia some minor embarrassment.
A middle course would be for Russia to announce that it had authorized the owners of these tankers to recruit armed security guards from non-state PMCs to protect their crews, which would likely serve as something of a deterrent.
Beyond that, Russia could increase its own naval presence in the Baltic, and send a frigate to intervene in response to a Mayday call from the about-to-be seized tanker.
A further and less measured escalation would be to arrange for a similar incident to befall an Estonian vessel somewhere on the distant high seas, where the mighty Estonian navy would be unable to assist.
It is better for Russia to focus on the main issue for now. Make an official complaint to some international organization, maybe even the UN. Authorizing civilian ships to hire armed guards is probably not useful as hostile naval warships will open fire with justifications now. Or simply make no noise but start escorting convoys. But Russia does not have sufficient naval forces now.
The situation is fairly obvious, a nation with 1.5 million people (and many of those are Russians) attacks/provokes a nuclear superpower with a shared border. If I was cynical I would ask: “What can possibly go wrong?” The problem is that in case if Russia gains the upper hand in this conflict (very likely) a Russian leader just might approach the issue with a simple logic: “If I discontinue the independent existence of this small nation, they will never do it again.”
"...a nation with 1.5 million people (and many of those are Russians) attacks/provokes a nuclear superpower with a shared border."
A nation with 1.5 million people that, apparently, is led by politicians eager to "play a role..." I am from a small country myself, so I am familiar with this kind of behaviour. It would be laughable if it was not so dangerous.
Laozi believes the diplomatic interactions between large and small nations ideally should have the larger nations behave more humbly. International heritage does not depend on whose flag is higher on the negotiation table.
"while the second has lost control over its rebellious German, British, and French allies. In any case, the relevance of this scenario to British-backed Estonia seizing one of Russia’s alleged “shadow fleet” vessels is that a strong political reaction from Moscow could be exploited to justify the UK doing this."
Lost control, not on your life. At best the Trump Admin has not grasped the levers, but more likely they are doing exactly what Rubio and Hegseth told them to do in their marching orders to EU. All of these people not only are on USA payroll, but every sin and picadillo is fully captured in CIA and NSA files.
It likely suits the EU to have Estonia acting as its cats-paw; witness the appointment of dingbat Estonian Kaja Kallas as the EU minister for foreign affairs.
Sources indicate that the Kushner-Dmitriev channel was the primary link between Trump’s camp and the Kremlin in recent months. During the 2023 presidential campaign, the Russian president and the Republican candidate did not communicate directly but instead exchanged messages through a network of young investment bankers close to them. It was Kushner and Dmitriev who arranged last week’s phone call between Putin and Trump, and it was also they who (naturally) selected Saudi Arabia as the venue for the first Russia-U.S. negotiations. According to Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, it was Dmitriev who served as the intermediary in the latest prisoner exchange, helping to secure the release of American citizen Marc Fogel.
Unlike Jared Kushner, who has shown no apparent political ambitions, Dmitriev is clearly eager to step into the spotlight.
In 2020, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, he was highly active in promoting Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine worldwide, giving numerous interviews and claiming that Russia could save the world from the pandemic. However, the ambitious plans for Sputnik’s global distribution ultimately fell short.
Now, Dmitriev is once again taking center stage. Given his willingness to take initiative, his lack of fear in dealing with superiors, and his access to Putin, he may well emerge as a key player in Russian-American relations in the near future.
Kirill Dmitriev himself was appointed head of the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) in 2011. According to Financial Times, he secured this position due to his close ties with Putin’s daughter.
Currently, Dmitriev also sits on the board of trustees of Innopraktika, chaired by Katerina. In 2015, Dmitriev, his wife, and Putin’s daughter attended the Davos Economic Forum together.
It was in the 2000s that he made the most important investment of his life. Dmitriev himself is not part of any presidential family, but he did everything possible to get close. He married Natalia Popova, a university acquaintance of Vladimir Putin’s younger daughter, Katerina. From there, according to a Kremlin insider, Kirill ensured that his wife Natalia became Katerina Putin’s closest friend— even her second self.
At present, Katerina Tikhonova (the name under which Putin’s daughter is known in Russia) heads several scientific organizations affiliated with Moscow State University, including the Innopraktika foundation, where her first deputy is Natalia Popova.
The negotiations between Russia and the United States, which took place in Riyadh, showcased a new rising star in the Russian establishment—Kirill Dmitriev, according to sources, Dmitriev was the key figure in arranging these negotiations.
Kirill Dmitriev’s presence at the negotiating table on the Russian side surprised many, as he had never before been involved in any high level diplomatic activity. Seated next to him were Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (74) and Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov (77). Both are diplomats of the Soviet school, devoid of initiative and intimidated by their superiors. In contrast, Dmitriev stands out—he is 49 years old, has close ties to the Putin family, maintains strong connections with Saudi Arabia, and is well acquainted with Jared Kushner. He heads the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), a state-backed entity.
Kirill Dmitriev’s biography is remarkable. He was born in 1975 in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, which at the time was still the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. While still a schoolboy, he left the USSR for America, where he enrolled at Stanford, later working at Goldman Sachs and McKinsey before earning an MBA from Harvard Business School. After that, he moved to Russia but, for a long time, operated as a "Ukrainian businessman," according to a source in Moscow, as he managed an investment fund linked to the family of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.
And on a more serious note, if Ukraine was basically under the control of a sprawling KGB crime network in 2013, how did Putin end up “losing” Ukraine less than 2 years later? There is no way that you could so colossally mess up and lose any FSU country because all FSU countries are run by KGB agents. Every single one. From Latvia to Kazakhstan and Georgia. And yet, somehow, Putin is able to lose every single one of them and have them turn their weapons at Russia one by one during the long years of his reign.
This is an incredible feat to pull off indeed.
And if Ukraine was really independent and anti-Putin, why were they helping Moscow arm Assad out of Odessa? Why was NATO-member Turkey allowing Russian weapons to pass the channels under its control? How come the US was unable to stop the shipments of weapons flowing into Syria via the Mediterranean? If Assad was anti-Israel, why were ethnic Odessans the one buying his drugs and selling him weapons?
Simple: Kissinger was the guy who cut a deal with Primakov to put Putin into power in the first place with the goal of making sure that Putin would keep Russia on her knees in the aftermath of Andropov (Fleckenstein) and Gorbachev and Yakovlev’s detonation of the USSR project. This close cooperation with the Kremlin continued behind the scenes while Washington saber-rattled and encroached on Russian borders. I know it is counter-intuitive for us honest-minded peasants to understand, but this happened and this strategy of shaking a fist at Russia while helping Putin behind the scenes continued all through the Not-War as well.
Take a look.
From The Washington Post, we have a report that Taiwanese companies with American security clearances to work for the Department of Defense were sending key high-tech weapons parts to Russia. Here:
They're not necessarily Russian-owned, they could be owned by third countries. It's a complicated web and difficult to obtain reliable information about what it may or may not actually be.
Since January 2023, I Machine Technology has imported over $20 million of sophisticated equipment called CNC machine tools made in Taiwan, a U.S. strategic partner, according to trade records and Russian tax documents obtained by The Washington Post. The computer-controlled machines are used for the complex and precise manufacturing that is critical in many industries, including weapons production.
The Taiwan-made machines accounted for virtually all of the Russian company’s imports in the first seven months of last year, according to the records, and the company’s sales during that period were overwhelmingly to the Russian defense industry. Bredikhin also sought to make the machines available for a secretive Russian effort to mass-produce the attack drones that have unleashed horrors on the U.S.-backed Ukrainian army, according to an invitation sent to one of the project managers overseeing engine construction for the drone program.
Kevin Wolf, a former senior Commerce Department official who once headed the agency that implements U.S. export controls, said shipments identified by The Post probably violated prohibitions Taiwan and the West imposed last January on the sale of technology to Russia, in response to the Ukraine war. He said the shipments should “absolutely” be an enforcement priority for authorities in Taiwan.
“This is why export controls against Russia were imposed,” he said. “You’ve got tools that are very important for making military items. You’ve got a lot of connection to military end uses and users. You have connections to drones. You’ve got a large dollar amount. This is a classic enforcement priority issue.”
The shipments highlight how, despite a U.S.-led regime of global restrictions that is one of the most expansive in history, Russia’s defense industry has remained robust partly because of regulatory loopholes and lax enforcement. Critical goods have continued to flow directly to Russia, as well as through China and other countries that are not participating in the restrictions — including, in this case, goods that originated on a self-governed island that is allied with the United States.
“On the one hand, we appreciate the efforts taken by our partners so far to disrupt Russian supply chains,” said Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a sanctions expert and adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “At the same time, it is clearly not enough.”
CNC machines have been the mainstay of metal manufacturing technology for the past half a century, nobody uses dumb lathes and mills anymore except for a handful of legacy machines at the largest scales. They are not as sophisticated as you make out, and very common.
Get on the Alibaba.com site (B2B, not consumer-oriented AliExpress) and type "CNC machine". You will be flooded with off-the-shelf offers. I quote from the search results: >Showing 100,000+ products from global suppliers for "cnc machine"<
Allowing this encroachment in the hopes of currying Trump's favor is pathetic. The US is a thug; so is Trump, the bombing of Yemen should dispel any doubts about that. A thug will interpret any attempts at civility as an admission of weakness, pure and simple, and will only be encouraged to step up the bullying.
What Russia ought to do, is issue an advisory to Russian nationals in Estonia (via radio and TV stations near the border that Estonian Russians tune in to routinely) asking them to evacuate Estonia with all possible haste, and stating that Russia disclaims any responsibility for their safety if they remain. And keep repeating that advisory. This is not a threat, and is not illegal; the US State Department issues such advisories routinely to Americans in the world's "hot spots", Lebanon most recently.
But the implications of that repeated announcement are likely to pour cold water down Estonian spines much more effectively than any explicit threat.
And if any Russian nationals follow that advice, so much the better; Russia will gain new loyal citizens, and it should not be an exorbitant expense to provide these refugees with work and accommodation.
"Allowing this encroachment in the hopes of currying Trump's favor is pathetic. The US is a thug; so is Trump, the bombing of Yemen should dispel any doubts about that."
Of course the United States and Trump are thugs. Doesn't matter, as long as the Estonians and the eurosponsors get what they want.
Putin definitely has more patience than I do.
If Russia does not give the desired response to the provocation, Estonia and its sponsors will simply behave more outrageously until they get what they wanted.
This is the inevitable result of Russian dithering and indecision.
Russia's so-called allies have done little to help. Hell, China complies with secondary sanctions.
This appears to assume facts not in evidence, not to mention that BRICS is a glorified dorm room bull session.
International law takes precedence over Estonian domestic legislation, so it would be open to Russia to bring a case against Estonia in whatever court or tribunal has jurisdiction over such matters, especially if the seizure took place in international waters, although this would be unlikely to have much effect beyond causing Estonia some minor embarrassment.
A middle course would be for Russia to announce that it had authorized the owners of these tankers to recruit armed security guards from non-state PMCs to protect their crews, which would likely serve as something of a deterrent.
Beyond that, Russia could increase its own naval presence in the Baltic, and send a frigate to intervene in response to a Mayday call from the about-to-be seized tanker.
A further and less measured escalation would be to arrange for a similar incident to befall an Estonian vessel somewhere on the distant high seas, where the mighty Estonian navy would be unable to assist.
International law is simply victor's justice.
It is better for Russia to focus on the main issue for now. Make an official complaint to some international organization, maybe even the UN. Authorizing civilian ships to hire armed guards is probably not useful as hostile naval warships will open fire with justifications now. Or simply make no noise but start escorting convoys. But Russia does not have sufficient naval forces now.
The situation is fairly obvious, a nation with 1.5 million people (and many of those are Russians) attacks/provokes a nuclear superpower with a shared border. If I was cynical I would ask: “What can possibly go wrong?” The problem is that in case if Russia gains the upper hand in this conflict (very likely) a Russian leader just might approach the issue with a simple logic: “If I discontinue the independent existence of this small nation, they will never do it again.”
"...a nation with 1.5 million people (and many of those are Russians) attacks/provokes a nuclear superpower with a shared border."
A nation with 1.5 million people that, apparently, is led by politicians eager to "play a role..." I am from a small country myself, so I am familiar with this kind of behaviour. It would be laughable if it was not so dangerous.
The point is to run screaming "Article 5! Article 5!" to the United States.
Laozi believes the diplomatic interactions between large and small nations ideally should have the larger nations behave more humbly. International heritage does not depend on whose flag is higher on the negotiation table.
"while the second has lost control over its rebellious German, British, and French allies. In any case, the relevance of this scenario to British-backed Estonia seizing one of Russia’s alleged “shadow fleet” vessels is that a strong political reaction from Moscow could be exploited to justify the UK doing this."
Lost control, not on your life. At best the Trump Admin has not grasped the levers, but more likely they are doing exactly what Rubio and Hegseth told them to do in their marching orders to EU. All of these people not only are on USA payroll, but every sin and picadillo is fully captured in CIA and NSA files.
It likely suits the EU to have Estonia acting as its cats-paw; witness the appointment of dingbat Estonian Kaja Kallas as the EU minister for foreign affairs.
Putin and Dmitriev
Sources indicate that the Kushner-Dmitriev channel was the primary link between Trump’s camp and the Kremlin in recent months. During the 2023 presidential campaign, the Russian president and the Republican candidate did not communicate directly but instead exchanged messages through a network of young investment bankers close to them. It was Kushner and Dmitriev who arranged last week’s phone call between Putin and Trump, and it was also they who (naturally) selected Saudi Arabia as the venue for the first Russia-U.S. negotiations. According to Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, it was Dmitriev who served as the intermediary in the latest prisoner exchange, helping to secure the release of American citizen Marc Fogel.
Unlike Jared Kushner, who has shown no apparent political ambitions, Dmitriev is clearly eager to step into the spotlight.
In 2020, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, he was highly active in promoting Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine worldwide, giving numerous interviews and claiming that Russia could save the world from the pandemic. However, the ambitious plans for Sputnik’s global distribution ultimately fell short.
Now, Dmitriev is once again taking center stage. Given his willingness to take initiative, his lack of fear in dealing with superiors, and his access to Putin, he may well emerge as a key player in Russian-American relations in the near future.
Katerina Tikhonova, Putin’s younger daughter
Kirill Dmitriev himself was appointed head of the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) in 2011. According to Financial Times, he secured this position due to his close ties with Putin’s daughter.
Currently, Dmitriev also sits on the board of trustees of Innopraktika, chaired by Katerina. In 2015, Dmitriev, his wife, and Putin’s daughter attended the Davos Economic Forum together.
Kirill Dmitriev and Natalia Popova
It was in the 2000s that he made the most important investment of his life. Dmitriev himself is not part of any presidential family, but he did everything possible to get close. He married Natalia Popova, a university acquaintance of Vladimir Putin’s younger daughter, Katerina. From there, according to a Kremlin insider, Kirill ensured that his wife Natalia became Katerina Putin’s closest friend— even her second self.
At present, Katerina Tikhonova (the name under which Putin’s daughter is known in Russia) heads several scientific organizations affiliated with Moscow State University, including the Innopraktika foundation, where her first deputy is Natalia Popova.
The negotiations between Russia and the United States, which took place in Riyadh, showcased a new rising star in the Russian establishment—Kirill Dmitriev, according to sources, Dmitriev was the key figure in arranging these negotiations.
Kirill Dmitriev’s presence at the negotiating table on the Russian side surprised many, as he had never before been involved in any high level diplomatic activity. Seated next to him were Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (74) and Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov (77). Both are diplomats of the Soviet school, devoid of initiative and intimidated by their superiors. In contrast, Dmitriev stands out—he is 49 years old, has close ties to the Putin family, maintains strong connections with Saudi Arabia, and is well acquainted with Jared Kushner. He heads the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), a state-backed entity.
Kirill Dmitriev’s biography is remarkable. He was born in 1975 in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, which at the time was still the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. While still a schoolboy, he left the USSR for America, where he enrolled at Stanford, later working at Goldman Sachs and McKinsey before earning an MBA from Harvard Business School. After that, he moved to Russia but, for a long time, operated as a "Ukrainian businessman," according to a source in Moscow, as he managed an investment fund linked to the family of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.
Lavrov, intimidated and devoid of initiative? Where do you get this stuff?
And on a more serious note, if Ukraine was basically under the control of a sprawling KGB crime network in 2013, how did Putin end up “losing” Ukraine less than 2 years later? There is no way that you could so colossally mess up and lose any FSU country because all FSU countries are run by KGB agents. Every single one. From Latvia to Kazakhstan and Georgia. And yet, somehow, Putin is able to lose every single one of them and have them turn their weapons at Russia one by one during the long years of his reign.
This is an incredible feat to pull off indeed.
And if Ukraine was really independent and anti-Putin, why were they helping Moscow arm Assad out of Odessa? Why was NATO-member Turkey allowing Russian weapons to pass the channels under its control? How come the US was unable to stop the shipments of weapons flowing into Syria via the Mediterranean? If Assad was anti-Israel, why were ethnic Odessans the one buying his drugs and selling him weapons?
Why not?
Simple: Kissinger was the guy who cut a deal with Primakov to put Putin into power in the first place with the goal of making sure that Putin would keep Russia on her knees in the aftermath of Andropov (Fleckenstein) and Gorbachev and Yakovlev’s detonation of the USSR project. This close cooperation with the Kremlin continued behind the scenes while Washington saber-rattled and encroached on Russian borders. I know it is counter-intuitive for us honest-minded peasants to understand, but this happened and this strategy of shaking a fist at Russia while helping Putin behind the scenes continued all through the Not-War as well.
Take a look.
From The Washington Post, we have a report that Taiwanese companies with American security clearances to work for the Department of Defense were sending key high-tech weapons parts to Russia. Here:
Yeah, I believe you that WaPo is your primary source for these "sensational" revelations. GIGO.
Could the German presence in Lithuania be part of a plan to eventually retake Kaliningrad/Konigsberg?
What exactly are these shadow fleets?
They're allegedly unregistered energy-transporting vessels that Russia employs to get around the oil sanctions and price cap.
Russian ships without insurance from London.
They're not necessarily Russian-owned, they could be owned by third countries. It's a complicated web and difficult to obtain reliable information about what it may or may not actually be.
Do we know what happens to the captain and crew, and presumably the oil?
Here's an update:
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/sanctioned-tanker-was-held-with-40-deficiencies-estonia-says/2-1-1807300?zephr_sso_ott=QKHbcM
Any ship not insured by the London Lloyds is in the shadow.
Since January 2023, I Machine Technology has imported over $20 million of sophisticated equipment called CNC machine tools made in Taiwan, a U.S. strategic partner, according to trade records and Russian tax documents obtained by The Washington Post. The computer-controlled machines are used for the complex and precise manufacturing that is critical in many industries, including weapons production.
The Taiwan-made machines accounted for virtually all of the Russian company’s imports in the first seven months of last year, according to the records, and the company’s sales during that period were overwhelmingly to the Russian defense industry. Bredikhin also sought to make the machines available for a secretive Russian effort to mass-produce the attack drones that have unleashed horrors on the U.S.-backed Ukrainian army, according to an invitation sent to one of the project managers overseeing engine construction for the drone program.
Kevin Wolf, a former senior Commerce Department official who once headed the agency that implements U.S. export controls, said shipments identified by The Post probably violated prohibitions Taiwan and the West imposed last January on the sale of technology to Russia, in response to the Ukraine war. He said the shipments should “absolutely” be an enforcement priority for authorities in Taiwan.
“This is why export controls against Russia were imposed,” he said. “You’ve got tools that are very important for making military items. You’ve got a lot of connection to military end uses and users. You have connections to drones. You’ve got a large dollar amount. This is a classic enforcement priority issue.”
The shipments highlight how, despite a U.S.-led regime of global restrictions that is one of the most expansive in history, Russia’s defense industry has remained robust partly because of regulatory loopholes and lax enforcement. Critical goods have continued to flow directly to Russia, as well as through China and other countries that are not participating in the restrictions — including, in this case, goods that originated on a self-governed island that is allied with the United States.
“On the one hand, we appreciate the efforts taken by our partners so far to disrupt Russian supply chains,” said Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a sanctions expert and adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “At the same time, it is clearly not enough.”
CNC machines have been the mainstay of metal manufacturing technology for the past half a century, nobody uses dumb lathes and mills anymore except for a handful of legacy machines at the largest scales. They are not as sophisticated as you make out, and very common.
Get on the Alibaba.com site (B2B, not consumer-oriented AliExpress) and type "CNC machine". You will be flooded with off-the-shelf offers. I quote from the search results: >Showing 100,000+ products from global suppliers for "cnc machine"<