Fact Check: Other South Asian States Are Unlikely To Join The Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline

Pakistan’s Energy Minister was likely trying to cover up the credible possibility that there might be some serious differences between the Pakistani and Russian sides in their talks on this megaproject.

Pakistani Energy Minister Awais Leghari told TASS that other South Asian states might join the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project that Russia hopes to finance and build. According to him, that’s one of the reasons why the negotiations have yet to be concluded, while others include technical details connected to delivery and the like. He made it seem like this is poised to become a regionally game-changing megaproject. Here are his exact words as reported by TASS:

“Many issues remain unresolved. Where will the gas molecules originate from, and where will they be delivered? How many countries will join the project? Will Pakistan serve as the final destination, or will there be further regional connections? Will other Indian subcontinent countries participate? All these matters are still being deliberated.”

The reality though is that other South Asian states are unlikely to join the PSGP for simple geographic reasons. This becomes obvious when looking at a map. India already has LNG terminals, refineries, and existing pipeline infrastructure for facilitating the flow of energy imports into the hinterland. It also has well-known political differences with Pakistan that prevent energy cooperation between them. Pakistan doesn’t border any other South Asian state apart from Afghanistan, with whom ties are very tense.

Moreover, Russia already has its own pipeline plans for Afghanistan that were described here in late November, which explains how that country could serve as a transit state for Russian oil and gas exports to Pakistan and perhaps further afield to India one day too. Seeing as how it’s politically and economically unrealistic to expand the PSGP to Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan since this requires transit across India, while the Maldives and Sri Lanka are island nations, Leghari clearly isn’t being honest.

“Russia & Pakistan Will Comprehensively Expand Cooperation In The Resource Sector” per the outcome of their latest Inter-Governmental Commission that was analyzed in the preceding hyperlinked article, and the PSGP might one day be financed and built, but it’s not going to extend to any other countries. Considering this, Leghari was likely trying to cover up for the credible possibility that there might be some serious differences between the Pakistani and Russian sides in their talks, ergo his little white lie.

It was much more convenient for him to claim that there are ambitious plans for expanding the PSGP throughout the region than to tell the truth about these differences. Speculating a bit, they probably concern price and might even involve American pressure on Pakistan, which would prefer to export its own costlier LNG to that market of a quarter-billion people than have Russia do so. To that end, it could weaponize sanctions to impede this project, and Pakistan might be powerless to do anything about it.

Reflecting on this insight, the future of the PSGP is still uncertain since there are still some serious differences between Pakistan and Russia, which is why no progress has been made for years. Pakistan desperately needs low-cost and reliable fuel, which only Russia can provide, but political obstacles like America’s prevailing influence over that country’s military and political elite serve as a serious hindrance. If Pakistan won’t defy the US or can’t get a sanctions waiver, then the PSGP might be doomed.