First Impressions Of The Surprise US-Iranian Ceasefire
The victor only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan.
The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the details of which haven’t been confirmed by both, that averted Trump’s threat to destroy Iran, The alleged statement by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that CNN and others shared was condemned as fake by Trump, who shared Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s vague X post on his Truth Social account instead. Whatever the truth about the terms may be, US-Iranian talks will resume in Islamabad on Friday. Here are five preliminary thoughts:
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1. Israel Won’t Wage War On Iran Without The US
While Israel might have wanted the US to achieve their shared goals through military means, it won’t obnoxiously impede the implementation of the ceasefire so as to not risk the the US hanging it out to dry, ergo its acceptance of this decision that thus facilities Friday’s planned talks. If those two’s negotiations stall, then Israel might try to provoke Iran into resuming full-fledged hostilities if it senses that the US would join in, though it’s unlikely to attempt this if it senses that the talks are going well.
2. Multisided Security Guarantees Are Likely Required
Iran requires the US withdrawing its forces from the Gulf, whether to the status quo ante bellum, more than that, or entirely. Meanwhile, the US and Israel demand the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium, at least international monitoring of its nuclear program, and curbs on its missile program at minimum. US sanctions, including secondary ones, could snapback if war resumes. As for the Gulf, the UAE and Israel might become military allies, while the rest of the region militarily consolidates under Saudi leadership.
3. The US Probably Won’t Accept The Petroyuan
The petroyuan, which refers to Iran’s alleged requirement of payment in yuan for safe transit across the strait, probably won’t figure into any peace deal. The US would rather that Iran split payment with Oman in dollars as a form of reparations that would also strengthen the role of the petrodollar than allow the petroyuan to emerge as a competitor. Likewise, the US might also demand that Iran eventually zero out its oil sales to China in exchange for sanctions relief, even if this is only informally agreed to.
4. It Can’t Be Ruled Out That The Talks Are A Trap
Iran never tired of reminding everyone during the conflict that the US attacked it twice already while they were negotiating so it’s possible that it’ll do so a third time too. In this scenario, Trump might have made his threat to destroy Iran without coordinating with Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms, thus leaving them more vulnerable than if they had more time to adequately prepare for Iran’s retaliation. The two-week ceasefire might give them enough even if they prefer that the US doesn’t initiate this sequence.
5. The Damocles’ Sword Of Radical Global Change Remains
On that note, the US has the capability and intent to destroy Iran, which would provoke Iran into doing its utmost to take the Gulf Kingdoms down with it. Afro-Eurasia would then be thrown into chaos as a result of the region’s energy exports being taken offline indefinitely, all while the US withdraws to “Fortress America” in the Western Hemisphere from where it would divide-and-rule the Eastern one. This Damocles’ sword of radical global change therefore still remains and mustn’t be forgotten.
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Both sides have declared victory, but the war isn’t over until there’s a US-Iranian agreement to that end, which might prospectively incorporate elements from former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s proposal that he published in Foreign Affairs last week. It’s accordingly premature to declare a victor, which can only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan.
I'm sharing my response to Steve's insult of me as a "performative contrarian" as a separate two-part comment (it's too large to share as a single one according to Substack) so that I can pin it and draw my readers' attention to it.
I will not accept any more unprovoked ad hominem insults. Trolls will be immediately blocked going forward. I'm disgusted with those who toxify our conversations due to hatred of me personally and/or being triggered by my work:
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It's my philosophy for one to overestimate their opponent in order to overprepare in parallel with having their opponent underestimate them in order to underprepare and thus raise the chances of success. This is due to my upbringing by my Germanic (Gottscheer) grandparents who raised me in lieu of my parents.
I'm a proud proponent of multipolarity, albeit understood differently than most of my peers, which I recently elaborated on here in a very detailed X comment:
https://x.com/AKorybko/status/2035960534911062388
I can't in good conscience join the chorus of literal charlatans who always underestimate their opponent, overestimate their own side, and spin every resultant setback as a success.
You're presumably a newcomer here because you'd otherwise know that I'm not a "performative contrarian". I don't like you insulting me as one either so let me discredit you because I do enjoy putting my trolls in place on X, and while I usually eschew doing so here, I feel it's time to set an example to deter other trolls from toxifying this convo.
For starters, I left the US at the age of 25 to move to Poland for a year to connect with my roots while preparing to apply to the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry, and I've never been back to the US since due to my sincere commitment to Russia's multipolar cause.
I emigrated with the intent of enrolling in MGIMO, obtaining the credentials and experience required for playing a role in advancing the aforesaid cause, and never looked back. You won't find anyone else who's done this. While at MGIMO, I then quickly got an internship at Voice of Russia, which later turned into Sputnik after merging with RIA Novosti (which I'd read since a teenager) and then a job after graduation.
Prior to that, I received my MA in International Relations and was literally at the top of my class. My dissertation on Hybrid Wars, which compared Syria and Ukraine to describe the US' new phased adaptive approach to regime change, was published as a book that was reviewed by the Russian Diplomatic Academy.
You can buy the Kindle copy here if you want to patronize me for my work:
https://x.com/AKorybko/status/2035960534911062388
Or read it for free here:
https://www.geopolitika.ru/en/books/hybrid-wars-indirect-adaptive-approach-regime-change
Moving along, while at Sputnik from 2014-2019, I played a leading role as a columnist and host of two separate weekly radio programs, one of which from 2016-2017/18 I think it was had a Russian expert in the studio with us who my co-anchor, a popular Russian journalist, invited. I obtained so many contacts through these means.
Throughout this period, I was also interacting with diplomats, officials, and fellow experts, both here and internationally, and also visited Pakistan five times to lecture about Hybrid Warfare at their National Defence University. My main focus was the US' weaponization of Baloch terrorism against Pakistan as a proxy war against CPEC, BRI's flagship project.
From 2019-2022, I freelanced with CGTN after leaving Sputnik amidst their restructuring at the time. I also started writing for a now-defunct Russian-based analytical site. This period saw me learn so much about China as well as formalize my ties with top think tanks here through public contributions to RIAC and the Valdai Club:
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/andrew-korybko/
https://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/16130/
In summer 2020, I was falsely implicated in a Russian "meddling" scandal which, while not mentioning my name in their reports citing US intelligence services, still highlighted an article that I wrote which anyone could look up and see that I was the author. That turned my life upside-down but showed that I'm on the right track to have such enemies:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200731065951/http://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=1603
And here's the article: "Russia's Counter-COVID Aid To America Advances The Case For A New Detente"
https://web.archive.org/web/20200731093355/https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=1387
After the SMO, the State Department then defamed me as an "anti-Semite", albeit not by name (the pattern building upon the above appeared to be not to make me go viral through a "political martyrdom" but to signal to me that I'm being watched and will be persecuted if I return to the US), but through a reference to an article that I wrote:
"A disinformation outlet linked to Russian military intelligence, One World, described Lavrov’s critics as 'Hitler-like' racists for suggesting 'one’s ethno-religious identity at birth' predetermines one’s political views."
https://archive.is/HahYD#selection-3313.18-3325.136
This is the article that triggered them into defaming me in such a sickening way:
"There Is No Middle Ground Between Lavrov’s & Hitler’s Worldviews"
https://archive.is/uz2kI#selection-323.0-326.0
By late 2022, the Russian site that I was writing for became defunct and my work with CGTN ended due to their unofficial compliance with US sanctions on Russia that prevented them from paying me. To their credit, they paid me everything they owed, but it took something like six months to finally receive it, which was very inconvenient.
From then till now, I've been working as an independent strategic consultant for several regular clients here and some occasional ones, but I don't need to disclose who they are or what the exact work entails since our I respect their right to confidentiality.
Suffice to say, it's my primary source of income, but I'm still very grateful for those who generously donate to me through their paid Substack subscriptions since it helps make ends meet whenever my clients don't have the same amount of work as before.
Anyhow, from the start of the SMO till today, I've also met with some of my extensive and varied contacts here for informal consulting on various matters, including my documented expertise on South Asian affairs given my PhD dissertation on Russian-Pakistani relations.
From 2019-2023, I was enrolled in an independent researcher program at MGIMO, and my dissertation now forms the basis of the Russian-Pakistani rapprochement, though I no longer play a direct role in protest of Pakistan's persecution of Imran Khan and PTI:
https://mgimo.ru/upload/diss/2022/Korybko_diss.pdf
From the beginning of my stay in Russia till today, I've always applied the philosophy that I mentioned at the start of my reply with the intent of raising the odds of Russia advancing multipolarity through more effective policy formulation and implementation.
As someone proudly raised with Germanic traditions where I was taught by my Opa (grandfather) that a man's character can be judged by his work ethic, I also worked for 1,278 consecutive days since the start of the SMO till 24 August 2025.
I did this out of solidarity with the troops despite moving apartments, the death of my Opa who raised me as the son he never had, getting married, not going on a honeymoon (we deemed it inappropriate), the birth of my son, my PhD, and seasonal illnesses.
I only stopped on 24 August 2025 after falling very ill from exhaustion but, as everyone who's read me in recent months has seen, I'm back at it again and still won't take a single day off unless I really feel I need it.
Absolutely none of my "peers" (as in "Non-Russian Pro-Russians", NRPRs, since barely any share my credentials, experience, or track record of analytical accuracy) have done this nor ever will do this because none of them have the same stakes that I have in Russia.
I live here, I have a family here (all Russian citizens), I own my apartment, and my life savings is in rubles, not to mention that I speak Russian enough to get by, practice Russian culture, know Russian history and politics, and read its literature.
Amidst all of this, I keep a relatively low profile by only rarely giving phone or video interviews, not just because it's inconvenient with my family life, but also because I'm not an egotistical maniac like most of my "peers" who crave the limelight and attention.
To be sure, I could do exactly what they do: regular podcasts, interviews with RT and other leading Alt-Media outlets, etc., I just politely decline, also in part because I believe that the written word is overall more intellectual than the spoken one, no offense intended.
Moreover, much of my audience consists of non-native-English speakers who could more easily consume my content through Google Translate than struggling with listening to me (and I do at times speak fast, very fast, in fact!).
Returning from this important digression, I'd like to reaffirm that I've never changed and have always retained my integrity, accounting for my analytical errors whenever they happen, but not letting that ever deter me from moving forward.
I'll also mention that I was obsessively harassed by literally hundreds of "NAFO" trolls daily on X from summer 2022 till I mass blocked them in January 2023 after epically trolling them back so badly that they never forgot it and still seethe to this day!
Since then, NRPR trolls replaced "NAFO", though they're not always as toxic but they do sometimes come close to it, especially those of my "peers" who've defamed me as an "Israeli spy in Russia", including to prominent Russians with the intent of harming me.
1)Usually, it is the one who ask for a ceasefire who is loosing. And it is the one who accept it who ultimately looses.
We'll see soon if there is exception to this rule.
2) One must think twice to the position of Russia and China. Yesterday, both vetoed a rather soft resolution against Iran at SC of UN.
3) if there is chaos everywhere in Africa, and Eurasia, it will be chaos too in American, USA include. Oil and two oceans don't protect of a huge economical crisis.