Five Irritants Should Be Resolved Before The Pakistani PM Travels To Russia

The most effective way of resolving them is for Pakistan to candidly address the first four in parallel with committing itself to a legally binding series of strategic resource deals with Russia.

The new Pakistani Ambassador to Russia revealed in mid-November that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif plans to travel to Russia later this year. Five irritants in their ties should ideally be resolved before then, however. They already overcame the scandal over reported Pakistani arms in Ukraine after the Russian Ambassador said that such claims were “baseless” earlier this year, but additional issues have since arisen. They’ve yet to adversely affect their ties but it’s possible that they very well still could one day:

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1. Shoigu Hinted That Pakistan Is Helping Western Spies Infiltrate Terrorists Into Afghanistan

Shoigu warned in an article in late August that Western spies are infiltrating terrorists into Afghanistan as part of plot “to create chronic centers of instability near Russia, China and Iran by means of extremist groups hostile to the Taliban.” While he didn’t accuse Pakistan of helping them, there’s no politically realistic way for them to enter Afghanistan with the aid of Western spies other than through that country. Pakistan should therefore address Shoigu’s innuendo without delay to alleviate these concerns.

2. The Crocus Terrorist Attack Might Have Been Orchestrated By An ISIS Cell In Pakistan

The Taliban dropped a bombshell amidst the escalation of tensions with Pakistan in mid-October by claiming that an ISIS cell there orchestrated spring 2024’s Crocus terrorist attack. Their allegation should be treated with suspicion given the group’s obvious self-interest in maligning Pakistan, but Russia should still investigate it just in case. If the Taliban or India (who just became partners as explained here) share evidence with Russia of ISIS camps in Pakistan, then it could lead to a re-evaluation of their relations.

3. There’s Talk Of Pakistan Giving The US A Dual-Use Port On The Arabian Sea

Russia strongly objects to the potential return of the US to Central-South Asia after its ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan less than half a decade ago, yet that might be about to happen per the Financial Times’ report in early October about Pakistan offering the US a dual-use port on the Arabian Sea. While ostensibly for commercial purposes related to the export of Pakistan’s hinterland minerals, it could also be used for military purposes too, including to aid the return of US troops to Bagram Airbase.

4. It Might Also Be Allowing US Drones To Use Its Airspace For Spying On Afghanistan

The US’ return to this broader region might already be a fait accompli, however, after the Taliban also accused Pakistan of allowing US drones to use its airspace for spying on Afghanistan. It remains unclear whether this is true, or if it is, whether they’re launched from clandestine bases inside Pakistan like in the past or from the US’ airbase in nearby Qatar. In any case, Pakistan would do well to clarify matters with Russia or Russia might suspect Pakistan of playing a double-game, which could harm their ties.

5. Pakistan Could End Up Giving Long-Negotiated Russian Investments To The US Instead

Pakistan and Russia signed a protocol in December 2024 over a raft of strategic resource investments, but the rapid US-Pakistani rapprochement since then and the revelation that Pakistani lobbying was partly responsible for that (and possibly for Trump’s flip-flop on Russia) could jeopardize this. New US pressure on Russia coupled with its favoritism of Pakistan, at least prior to the Indo-US trade deal, could see Pakistan give these long-negotiated investments to the US (whether under pressure or as a reward).

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The most effective way of resolving these five irritants is for Pakistan to candidly address the first four of them in parallel with committing itself to a legally binding series of strategic resource deals with Russia. Talk is cheap as they say so the boldness of clinching these agreements in spite of new US pressure on Russia and amidst the rapid US-Pakistani rapprochement would make a positive impression on Russia. The best-case scenario is that tangible progress is made on this in the run-up to Sharif’s trip.