And now Israel says Iran violated it. I haven’t found much news beyond it, but won’t believe it is permanent for awhile. I guess I am a bit of a skeptic.
It's performance. Everyone knows Iran does microaggressions during ceasefires, like Ukraine or Hamas or Hezbollah. The left of center - National Union, Israel Beiteinu and Yesh Atid - all want Bibi to continue. Even though their voters are to large extent all in the super-dense Gush Dan area till Haifa that the poorly targeting Iranian missiles prefer to target.
It is also well known that Israel violated many of the ceasefires. Example: with Hamas after releasing the American hostage. All with Lebanon. And it’s always someone else’s fault.
Micro aggression? It sounds like propaganda lingo. There is a fact of violation or no fact of violation.
This war has to serve as wake-up call to Iranian elites, for a serious fight against their own internal boasting, corruption, negligence. If this captured pilot story published by the semi-official news agency, turns out to be fake, then Iran will lose confidence from the pro-Resistance side, because trust is not a toy.
Iran and its media surrogates push A LOT of fake news. That doesn't mean that Israel and others don't, just pointing out that many in the Alt-Media Community refuse to acknowledge this and therefore harm their credibility as a result.
I always wonder about who controls whom, or who has greater influence between the two. Until not long ago, I always considered the Zionist entity as an outpost of the actual Anglo-American hegemony, with a latent Christian Zionism that has existed for a long time. But the more I inform myself, the more I feel that both are the same entity, with imperial plans and agendas that sometimes clash between them, but ultimately, it is mostly jews who are on both sides.
I think of the USS Liberty, Kennedy with the declassified files where the CIA and Mossad are involved, 9/11, and many other examples. I refuse to believe that something like this is possible with an Israel that primarily serves Anglo-American imperialism and Protestant evangelical Zionism.
Ever since Gromyko and Stalin helped shepherd Israeli indipendence through the UN in 1945-48, Israel has been a free agent. Sure, on the side of the West. However, relations with the US didn't pick up till after June 1967. Before, it was mostly France and Germany supporting it.
Liberty - apparently, that Liberty ship had 5 urgent missives from the Navy command not to go where she was actually going. She started West of Africa and went to North of Egypt into the conflict zone. So either she went there by mistake, or the missives were a cover-up.
If Iran actually falls for this BS, they truly deserve whatever they get next. Trump might not provide munitions if Israel resumes it's terror campaign? Um, ok.
It could simply be a pause allowing the Blob to regroup, Iran having displayed far greater strength and resolve than anticipated. Russia should end matters in Ukraine and the U.S. should withdraw from NATO. Those actions would give multipolarity a fighting chance.
Iran didn't have to pause though if that's really what this is about. I'm also sure that they took that scenario into consideration but still obviously agreed to the ceasefire.
Trump is a colossal disgrace for the USA, they deserve him, and the entire world. What a fucking clown, and that does a disservice to clowns! Hate his rotten guts as much as I hate Israeli genocide in Palestine. The USA and Israel must be destroyed...completely. Trump and Netanyahu deserve the same, slow torturous deaths in public.
I doubt that this ceasefire will hold, although the tempo of the conflict will probably be dialled down a bit.
I would expect Israel to continue its campaign of targeted assassinations (under the cover of plausible deniability), foment unrest across Iran’s cities and ethnic communities, use sabotage operations to eliminate Iran’s capacity to produce and launch ballistic missiles, and generally try to keep the Iranian government off balance and on the defensive both domestically and internationally.
I’d also expect a $100b economic and military aid package for Israel to be presented to Congress in the near future, and for the administration to use the situation in the Middle East and the need to resupply Israel and replenish US military equipment inventories as an excuse to wind down its support for Ukraine.
Nope - Israel is careful to have it's share clearly less than 40% of the Ukrainian share. 100Bill$ for Israel would mean 250Bill$ or more NEW expenditure on Ukraine. I don't think Congress would be happy with that. Not to mention the Russians.
I've been also hearing Russian voices (Medvedev?) advocating arming Iran with nukes. To me it would seem an unforced error, as US would return the favor by nuclearly arming Ukraine too. That would be self-defeating for Russia.
I don't think Trump defied the Israeli government at all, I think he did exactly what they told him.
As you say in point #1, Israel was taking too much damage to continue this war. This was the face-saving stunt for Bibi to declare victory and temporarily end the war. Israel will be back with a new surprise attack soon enough. They just need to better neutralize Iran's missiles.
The only real question is what justification Bibi will use for the next war. Supposedly their nuclear program has been destroyed in this war...
But fear not, the propaganda doesn't matter, the reality is this war is just on hold for a bit till Israel can get the upper hand militarily.
We have just kicked the can down the road. We just don't know how far. Satanyahu is called the last prime minister of Israel for some good reasons. If anyone expects him or the Jewish ultra-orthodox to roll over and play dead, that would be mistaken. What happened is that the US jumped up to play Big Bad Wolf one more time and then lay on the ground exhausted. As a transaction, it seems finished. As an episode in the WW3, it is just a blip in the process.
There is NY Post, Washington Examiner, Breitbart, City Journal, PJ media etc which are all mainstay not MSM. Zerohedge is a bit fringy, same for American Conservative. Andrew Napolitano or Ron Unz are extreme.
Hi Andrew, Why would the destruction/pushback of the Iranian nuclear program push it out of the geopolitical game? It seems clear to me that they haven't decided to build a nuclear weapon, and that they would incur significant cost if they attempted to build one. So why would the destruction of this program lead to being knocked out of the geopolitical game?
Can you address the failure to deliver su35s? And why is the S400 not being made available given that it’s a defensive system? There is a lot of outrage in Iran about it’s partnership with Russia.
This is NOT a ceasefire. This is simply a pause in hostilities. Iran DECIMATED Israel’s economy, scientific research centers, military headquarters, power plants, oil refineries and ports far greater than is being ALLOWED to be reported. After all, it was Israel that BEGGED Zion Donnie Trump for a “ceasefire.” Iran’s position was and ALWAYS will be if hostilities on Iran stop, THAN Iran will stop. This is exactly what happened. Yes, Iran took hits, but comparatively speaking, Israel LOST. As if this reply (29.June.2025) there has been OVER 20+ flights chock full of military materiel getting ready for more “Unprovoked and Unjustified” war on Iran.
Israel always violated the ceasefire and blames the opposing side. The jury is out as to whether or not Trump actually cited with the neocons or not. I am hoping he is maneuvering behind the scenes with the assistance of Putin. These neocons and globalists will kill Trump if he too obviously sides with his base. The stakes are high! He has to lead from behind ! The good news is that the neons are all typically 65 years and older. Hopefully, as they die off the multipolar world that we all hope for will become a reality. It's time for a major realignment in the post World War II order. With Russia, China in the US taking the lead. In peaceful, profitable relations among all nations. Let's hope.
1. Iran & Israel Inflicted Unacceptable Damage To One Another
The physical damage to both was roughly equal in absolute terms, but in relative terms the damage to Israel's military prospects had reached the point where its continued existence was in doubt.Iran wasn't even close to that, and there was copious reporting of the former's pleas for a ceasefire via various diplomatic channels.
The Israeli govt's ban on citizens leaving by air is a telling data point. The mass demonstrations in support of the Iranian govt in Tehran and elsewhere is another. Haven't seen that in Tel Aviv.
2. The Trump Administration Didn’t Want Another Major Regional War
This is better phrased as the West didn't want to lose another major war. Its war on Russia/BRICS has come a cropper, and having lost the northern front a 2nd loss on its southern front would be cataclysmic. Or, existential if one prefers that term.
3. Trump Unexpectedly Defied The Israel Lobby & Neoconservatives
If he "defied" them at all, he resisted their entreaties to go all in. Or, likely more accurately, he listened to his Generals who said "Not on my watch". The reality is that the USM is simply unable to mount anything more than an air campaign against anyone.
4. The US Spun Its Bombing Of Iran As A Strategic Success
Or better, they tried to as even the MSM is reporting that nothing much happened, militarily speaking. The "attack" on the rocks & sands surrounding Fordow etc was a fig leaf, as was Iran's "retaliation". Acts 1 & 2 in a political theater that had the salutary effect of diluting calls to war in both the US and Iran.
5. Trump Is Totally Obsessed With Receiving The Nobel Peace Prize
No comment. I've no inside knowledge that would indicate what Trump's personal obsessions are.
FWIW, Iran had no obvious reason to stop. Ergo, the reason must be covert. I suspect that Israel let it be known that if its existence became much more doubtful it would exercise its Samson Option, and not just on Iran.
Blah, blah, blah. All scripted, planned, and orchestrated. No matter who's president, the ME is a script. These "secret" communications about where, when, and how much to bomb from both U.S. & Iran...Israel hurting supposedly from all analysts' POVs but Iran doesn't finish the job--pulls back and away...WHY? You've got your enemy on the ropes...but don't finish him so he doesn't attack you again??? People who believe this garbage have bought into the mentality of "forever wars" as legitimate where war is defined as a continuous cycle of heating up and cooling down. Look how quickly everything returned to normal: the skies opened again for air traffic and normal trading resumed WITHIN HOURS. Come on, folks. It's pure theater to distract and instill worry, anxiety, and fear throughout the world.
You want some real information? The Rothschild family, worth over 550 trillion, has pumped unbelievably more amounts of money into Israel than simply buying land and conferring deeds. You think they're going to allow Israel destroyed? Of course not. Wise up. They want the Third Temple built.
They reflect the true ruling power--financial global oligarchs. They want war to divert and worry people--which is a form of control--but nothing actually accomplished. Syria was destroyed to divide and create corridors for the Greater Middle East plan. The Palestinians have simply been too obstinate so the ongoing snuff film in Gaza. They want the land for development. Iran represents a technologically advanced nation with a sound infrastructure globalists will need to open the huge trading channel east. They don't want Iran put down, and they don't give a damn about a theocracy, the people, or "death to America" if the ayatollahs work with them.
And now Israel says Iran violated it. I haven’t found much news beyond it, but won’t believe it is permanent for awhile. I guess I am a bit of a skeptic.
Trump just publicly chided Israel for violating the ceasefire:
"ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES"
https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937464837375951342
Yeah. But is it performance or meant to be something?
It's performance. Everyone knows Iran does microaggressions during ceasefires, like Ukraine or Hamas or Hezbollah. The left of center - National Union, Israel Beiteinu and Yesh Atid - all want Bibi to continue. Even though their voters are to large extent all in the super-dense Gush Dan area till Haifa that the poorly targeting Iranian missiles prefer to target.
It is also well known that Israel violated many of the ceasefires. Example: with Hamas after releasing the American hostage. All with Lebanon. And it’s always someone else’s fault.
Micro aggression? It sounds like propaganda lingo. There is a fact of violation or no fact of violation.
This war has to serve as wake-up call to Iranian elites, for a serious fight against their own internal boasting, corruption, negligence. If this captured pilot story published by the semi-official news agency, turns out to be fake, then Iran will lose confidence from the pro-Resistance side, because trust is not a toy.
Iran and its media surrogates push A LOT of fake news. That doesn't mean that Israel and others don't, just pointing out that many in the Alt-Media Community refuse to acknowledge this and therefore harm their credibility as a result.
A question, Andrew,
I always wonder about who controls whom, or who has greater influence between the two. Until not long ago, I always considered the Zionist entity as an outpost of the actual Anglo-American hegemony, with a latent Christian Zionism that has existed for a long time. But the more I inform myself, the more I feel that both are the same entity, with imperial plans and agendas that sometimes clash between them, but ultimately, it is mostly jews who are on both sides.
I think of the USS Liberty, Kennedy with the declassified files where the CIA and Mossad are involved, 9/11, and many other examples. I refuse to believe that something like this is possible with an Israel that primarily serves Anglo-American imperialism and Protestant evangelical Zionism.
Thanks you in advance.
Ever since Gromyko and Stalin helped shepherd Israeli indipendence through the UN in 1945-48, Israel has been a free agent. Sure, on the side of the West. However, relations with the US didn't pick up till after June 1967. Before, it was mostly France and Germany supporting it.
Liberty - apparently, that Liberty ship had 5 urgent missives from the Navy command not to go where she was actually going. She started West of Africa and went to North of Egypt into the conflict zone. So either she went there by mistake, or the missives were a cover-up.
All that is unfortunate.
Of course the "captured pilot" story was fake, wishful thinking.
The Ukrainian regime publicizes fake news all the time and yet is still taken seriously, within and without that country.
Soft power works.
If Iran actually falls for this BS, they truly deserve whatever they get next. Trump might not provide munitions if Israel resumes it's terror campaign? Um, ok.
It could simply be a pause allowing the Blob to regroup, Iran having displayed far greater strength and resolve than anticipated. Russia should end matters in Ukraine and the U.S. should withdraw from NATO. Those actions would give multipolarity a fighting chance.
Iran didn't have to pause though if that's really what this is about. I'm also sure that they took that scenario into consideration but still obviously agreed to the ceasefire.
Trump is a colossal disgrace for the USA, they deserve him, and the entire world. What a fucking clown, and that does a disservice to clowns! Hate his rotten guts as much as I hate Israeli genocide in Palestine. The USA and Israel must be destroyed...completely. Trump and Netanyahu deserve the same, slow torturous deaths in public.
Thanks for sharing your insights.
I doubt that this ceasefire will hold, although the tempo of the conflict will probably be dialled down a bit.
I would expect Israel to continue its campaign of targeted assassinations (under the cover of plausible deniability), foment unrest across Iran’s cities and ethnic communities, use sabotage operations to eliminate Iran’s capacity to produce and launch ballistic missiles, and generally try to keep the Iranian government off balance and on the defensive both domestically and internationally.
I’d also expect a $100b economic and military aid package for Israel to be presented to Congress in the near future, and for the administration to use the situation in the Middle East and the need to resupply Israel and replenish US military equipment inventories as an excuse to wind down its support for Ukraine.
Nope - Israel is careful to have it's share clearly less than 40% of the Ukrainian share. 100Bill$ for Israel would mean 250Bill$ or more NEW expenditure on Ukraine. I don't think Congress would be happy with that. Not to mention the Russians.
I've been also hearing Russian voices (Medvedev?) advocating arming Iran with nukes. To me it would seem an unforced error, as US would return the favor by nuclearly arming Ukraine too. That would be self-defeating for Russia.
I don't think Trump defied the Israeli government at all, I think he did exactly what they told him.
As you say in point #1, Israel was taking too much damage to continue this war. This was the face-saving stunt for Bibi to declare victory and temporarily end the war. Israel will be back with a new surprise attack soon enough. They just need to better neutralize Iran's missiles.
The only real question is what justification Bibi will use for the next war. Supposedly their nuclear program has been destroyed in this war...
But fear not, the propaganda doesn't matter, the reality is this war is just on hold for a bit till Israel can get the upper hand militarily.
We have just kicked the can down the road. We just don't know how far. Satanyahu is called the last prime minister of Israel for some good reasons. If anyone expects him or the Jewish ultra-orthodox to roll over and play dead, that would be mistaken. What happened is that the US jumped up to play Big Bad Wolf one more time and then lay on the ground exhausted. As a transaction, it seems finished. As an episode in the WW3, it is just a blip in the process.
Settle down. This is more kabuki.
Pretty good analysis, in my opinion.
Only thing is that there simply IS no "Alt-Media Community". The last
thing we need is another bogus and meaningless CATEGORY. The
"Mainstream Media", on the other hand, IS a viable category - in as
much as they ALL lie for the Empire, all the time. Usually reading off
the exact same script.
There is NY Post, Washington Examiner, Breitbart, City Journal, PJ media etc which are all mainstay not MSM. Zerohedge is a bit fringy, same for American Conservative. Andrew Napolitano or Ron Unz are extreme.
Hi Andrew, Why would the destruction/pushback of the Iranian nuclear program push it out of the geopolitical game? It seems clear to me that they haven't decided to build a nuclear weapon, and that they would incur significant cost if they attempted to build one. So why would the destruction of this program lead to being knocked out of the geopolitical game?
Can you address the failure to deliver su35s? And why is the S400 not being made available given that it’s a defensive system? There is a lot of outrage in Iran about it’s partnership with Russia.
This is NOT a ceasefire. This is simply a pause in hostilities. Iran DECIMATED Israel’s economy, scientific research centers, military headquarters, power plants, oil refineries and ports far greater than is being ALLOWED to be reported. After all, it was Israel that BEGGED Zion Donnie Trump for a “ceasefire.” Iran’s position was and ALWAYS will be if hostilities on Iran stop, THAN Iran will stop. This is exactly what happened. Yes, Iran took hits, but comparatively speaking, Israel LOST. As if this reply (29.June.2025) there has been OVER 20+ flights chock full of military materiel getting ready for more “Unprovoked and Unjustified” war on Iran.
https://sonar21.com/israel-suffered-extensive-damage/
Israel always violated the ceasefire and blames the opposing side. The jury is out as to whether or not Trump actually cited with the neocons or not. I am hoping he is maneuvering behind the scenes with the assistance of Putin. These neocons and globalists will kill Trump if he too obviously sides with his base. The stakes are high! He has to lead from behind ! The good news is that the neons are all typically 65 years and older. Hopefully, as they die off the multipolar world that we all hope for will become a reality. It's time for a major realignment in the post World War II order. With Russia, China in the US taking the lead. In peaceful, profitable relations among all nations. Let's hope.
1. Iran & Israel Inflicted Unacceptable Damage To One Another
The physical damage to both was roughly equal in absolute terms, but in relative terms the damage to Israel's military prospects had reached the point where its continued existence was in doubt.Iran wasn't even close to that, and there was copious reporting of the former's pleas for a ceasefire via various diplomatic channels.
The Israeli govt's ban on citizens leaving by air is a telling data point. The mass demonstrations in support of the Iranian govt in Tehran and elsewhere is another. Haven't seen that in Tel Aviv.
2. The Trump Administration Didn’t Want Another Major Regional War
This is better phrased as the West didn't want to lose another major war. Its war on Russia/BRICS has come a cropper, and having lost the northern front a 2nd loss on its southern front would be cataclysmic. Or, existential if one prefers that term.
3. Trump Unexpectedly Defied The Israel Lobby & Neoconservatives
If he "defied" them at all, he resisted their entreaties to go all in. Or, likely more accurately, he listened to his Generals who said "Not on my watch". The reality is that the USM is simply unable to mount anything more than an air campaign against anyone.
4. The US Spun Its Bombing Of Iran As A Strategic Success
Or better, they tried to as even the MSM is reporting that nothing much happened, militarily speaking. The "attack" on the rocks & sands surrounding Fordow etc was a fig leaf, as was Iran's "retaliation". Acts 1 & 2 in a political theater that had the salutary effect of diluting calls to war in both the US and Iran.
5. Trump Is Totally Obsessed With Receiving The Nobel Peace Prize
No comment. I've no inside knowledge that would indicate what Trump's personal obsessions are.
FWIW, Iran had no obvious reason to stop. Ergo, the reason must be covert. I suspect that Israel let it be known that if its existence became much more doubtful it would exercise its Samson Option, and not just on Iran.
Blah, blah, blah. All scripted, planned, and orchestrated. No matter who's president, the ME is a script. These "secret" communications about where, when, and how much to bomb from both U.S. & Iran...Israel hurting supposedly from all analysts' POVs but Iran doesn't finish the job--pulls back and away...WHY? You've got your enemy on the ropes...but don't finish him so he doesn't attack you again??? People who believe this garbage have bought into the mentality of "forever wars" as legitimate where war is defined as a continuous cycle of heating up and cooling down. Look how quickly everything returned to normal: the skies opened again for air traffic and normal trading resumed WITHIN HOURS. Come on, folks. It's pure theater to distract and instill worry, anxiety, and fear throughout the world.
You want some real information? The Rothschild family, worth over 550 trillion, has pumped unbelievably more amounts of money into Israel than simply buying land and conferring deeds. You think they're going to allow Israel destroyed? Of course not. Wise up. They want the Third Temple built.
They reflect the true ruling power--financial global oligarchs. They want war to divert and worry people--which is a form of control--but nothing actually accomplished. Syria was destroyed to divide and create corridors for the Greater Middle East plan. The Palestinians have simply been too obstinate so the ongoing snuff film in Gaza. They want the land for development. Iran represents a technologically advanced nation with a sound infrastructure globalists will need to open the huge trading channel east. They don't want Iran put down, and they don't give a damn about a theocracy, the people, or "death to America" if the ayatollahs work with them.