Five Reasons Why The Latest Moldovan Elections Were So Important

Even in the best-case scenario that their tensions remain manageable, NATO will still solidify its presence along Ukraine’s southwestern flank which also serves as the Black Sea’s northwestern one, thus doubling the potential trouble that the bloc could one day pose for Russia.

Moldova’s ruling “Party of Action & Solidarity” (PAS), which was founded by liberal-globalist President Maia Sandu, lost some seats in the latest parliamentary elections but still narrowly won a majority. This result was achieved through suspected fraud, banning two conservative-nationalist opposition parties, only opening two polling stations in Russia for their half-million-strong diaspora, and creating obstacles for voters from the separatist region of Transnistria. Here are five reasons why these elections matter:

----------

1. The West Has Perfected Its “Regime Reinforcement” Model

Last fall’s EU referendum and Sandu’s re-election were achieved via the means above, which preceded the first round of Romania’s presidential election whose results were then annulled on false pretexts of foreign meddling after the result disappointed the EU. The re-run then predictably led to their preferred candidate winning upon his rival’s disqualification. The West’s “regime reinforcement” model has now been perfected after the latest Moldovan elections and will thus likely be applied elsewhere in Europe.

2. NATO Will Complete Its De Facto Capture Of Moldova

Moldova is a constitutionally neutral state but that could soon change if PAS holds another referendum modeled off of its flawed EU one. Even without amending the constitution, NATO is still expected to complete its de facto capture of Moldova, likely by building upon Moldova’s special ties with Romania and last year’s defense pact with France. As was assessed here, France envisages using Romania-Moldova as a launchpad for openly intervening in Ukraine, whether before or after the war ends.

3. Moldova Will Be Drawn Even Deeper Into Mission Creep

Expanding upon the second consequence of these elections, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warned in mid-July that “NATO Is Turning Moldova Into A New Military Ram Against Russia”, adding that its citizens might even be used as cannon fodder in Ukraine. Whether Moldova ultimately gets directly involved in the conflict or only facilitates the flow of arms and maybe one day Western/French troops there too, it’s still being drawn even deeper into mission creep, which entails very serious security risks.

4. A Joint Moldovan-Ukrainian Attack On Transnistria Is Possible

The preceding two consequences segue into the penultimate one of NATO backing a joint Moldovan-Ukrainian attack on Transnistria, something that SVR warned about last winter, on the assumption that it would be a low-cost but highly symbolic victory over Russia whose peacekeepers are still deployed there. This dangerous scenario could provoke Russian retaliation against Moldova, thus directly dragging it into the conflict, and possibly even NATO-member Romania too if its troops clash with Russia’s peacekeepers.

5. The Root Cause Of NATO-Russian Tensions Remains Intact

And finally, what all of this shows is that NATO continues expanding eastward at the expense of Russia’s security interests, thus confirming that the root cause of their tensions remains intact. These latest moves raise the odds that NATO will intensify its de facto expansion into Ukraine too, whether during or after the war, which in turn raises the odds of NATO-Russian tensions further worsening. The new normal that’s therefore emerging between them is one of heightened tensions for the foreseeable future.

----------

In view of the above, it’s clear that the latest Moldovan elections were much more important than casual observers might have thought, especially given how much their outcome is expected to further worsen NATO-Russian tensions. Even in the best-case scenario that they remain manageable, NATO will still solidify its presence along Ukraine’s southwestern flank which also serves as the Black Sea’s northwestern one, thus doubling the potential trouble that the bloc could one day pose for Russia.