Five Reasons Why Trump Is Once Again Escalating Against Russia
They’re all primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response.
It was earlier assessed that “The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around” due to newfound mutual interests in reaching a deal, but then Trump canceled the Budapest Summit on the grounds that he didn’t think it’d be worth his time. He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and might be lying about not having approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles. Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons:
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1. He’s Driving A Hard Bargain To Coerce Putin Into Maximum Concessions
Russia’s minimum goal is to obtain full control over Donbass, without which Putin can’t hypothetically freeze (let alone end) the war without “losing face”. Trump refuses to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from there, instead believing that he can coerce Putin into freezing the conflict without first controlling Donbass, thus amounting to maximum concessions. That’s still unacceptable for Putin and might always be, but Trump seems to be taking his refusal personally, perhaps seeing it as a challenge to his authority.
2. The Warmongers Appear To Have Once Again Made Him Change His Mind
Trump’s announcement was made during a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, thus suggesting that warmongers like him, Zelensky, Lindsey Graham, and others still have his ear. He’s infamously capricious, with many having noticed that he tends to be influenced by the last person who talked to him. This idiosyncrasy makes him comparatively easier to manipulate than most, which has enormous implications in terms of how certain lobbies and foreign forces could influence US policy throughout his second term.
3. Trump Seems To Truly Believe That Any Escalation Will Remain Manageable
Trump wouldn’t try to drive a hard bargain and end up giving in to the warmongers unless he truly believed that any Russian-US escalation would remain manageable. His calculation presupposes that there won’t be any overwhelming response from Putin that would then push them towards climbing the escalation ladder all the way to the top. It’s predicated on the assumption that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore back down if significantly pressured. That’s a dangerous gamble to take.
4. He’s Also Not Abandoning His Stratagem Of Dividing-And-Ruling Eurasia
Senior refinery executives told NDTV that “Flows of Russian oil to major Indian processors are expected to fall to near zero” after the latest sanctions, which could divide the newly solidified Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle if true. Trump might also expect that China will do the same to get him to curtail the additional 100% tariffs that he threatened to impose on it next month. He could still be proven wrong on both counts, but in any case, his latest escalation shows that he’s still trying to divide-and-rule Eurasia.
5. Trump Might Be Betting On Chinese Non-Compliance With The Latest Sanctions
China isn’t expected to comply with the US’ latest sanctions since it’ll gain by purchasing at a steep discount whatever oil Russia might soon be unable to sell to India. The interim Sino-US trade deal might then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs on China and makes their curtailing conditional on it dumping Russian oil. He might even want this predictable sequence of events to unfold, however, so as to justify accelerating his planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China.
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Trump’s reason for once again escalating against Russia is primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response even if he never agrees to the maximum concessions being demanded of him. The US might have also concluded, whether rightly or wrong, that India is the weak link in RIC which can be coerced into breaking up BRICS. To be clear, these explanations don’t equate to endorsements, but they cogently account for what Trump just did.
Pretty good analysis, but I don't see how Putin can compromise on any of his goals for the SMO, including resolving the "root causes," namely NATO encroachment since 1991, and he will not give up the four republics, including Crimea.
I do not believe the US will ever change its stated foreign policy goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia and to steal its vast resources.
You are right about the US strategy of "divide and conquer." It will do everything it can to drive Russia, China, and India apart using sanctions, and tariffs on Russian exports of LNG and gas.
How far will the US go, and Trump is not the "decider," is the big question and gamble. Firing Tomahawks at Russia would seem to be unlikely unless the warmongers really want a direct war with Russia.
Finally, I think that Russia, China, and India, along with all of the BRICS Plus countries know with absolute certainty that the US economy is about to collapse. It is simply not sustainable. The current AI Bubble will surely burst causing another 1980 crash. Meanwhile, those BRICS countries know that millions of Americans are feeling the pain in their wallets with the rising costs of everything. On top of all this, Trump has been lying about employment at the highest ever. Really? With all the government layoffs and terminations he's doing, tens of thousands will join the unemployment ranks. After all, the state, local, and federal governments are really a massive jobs program.
As a result, Russia, China, India and the rest will exercise maximum patience and respond as they see appropriate. China has already done that with the ban on rare earths, the manufacturing of such, and other critical needs the USA has.
Maybe it's time for Russia to do the same with the export of Uranium, fertilizers, additional rare earths, etc. Time for Russia to play hardball too!
I'm curious to see if Russia can route its oil flows to India via China as well, although these are of course easier said than done. I know that Putin is visiting India later this year as well and that him and Modi have great relations. India is in a tough spot but it's an inevitable position to be in once you are a rising power. I'm just disgusted at the bullying on the part of the U.S. at this point. In prior administrations, this all happened with a certain amount of diplomacy. However, I'm simply appalled by the Trump Administration's brazen coercion with literally the entire world.