It is increasingly more difficult to differentiate Trump’s tactical games from temper tantrums. Indications are that the key is the identity of the last person he spoke to. In this case it was Zelensky in all black, this time properly dressed but most certainly out of place. Even if Trump takes an anger management course (unlikely) he might be dealing with a problem that presently has no solution. Ukraine and the U.S. are both asking for a lot and the problem is that they did not win the war.
Sad! But true. Trump probably believed Putin would be persuaded by money - Western investment - in exchange for Western influence in Ukraine.
Trump has learned Putin spits at Western investment. But Putin has probably offered Trump the opportunity to re-invest in Russia with Rubles (not Dollars) but only if Trump abandons Ukraine.
I think Trump will take that deal. Zelensky is going to be thrown to the wolves.
This conflict has turned into a tragic farce. Did the Russian leadership (oligarchs) really think that they could basically just hold their lines with minor advances to get a peace deal when all the signs point to a build-up to future hostilities? Every NATO country has been emboldened by Russia's passive stance. I hear the same old Russia is winning mantra without evidence that it's gaining significant territory. So why are no countries in a hurry to make a peace deal if they're getting soundly beaten. The facts don't add up.
A WW1 scenario is unfolding which can drag out this conflict longer than anyone thinks in a battle of attrition and positional conflict which Russia is content to play so as not to offend the US in its hurried effort to make a deal and settle for less strategically. Repeating the same tactic while expecting a different outcome is foretelling. lol
‘Every NATO country has been emboldened by Russia's passive stance. I hear the same old Russia is winning mantra without evidence that it's gaining significant territory.’
I do not see any serious indications that Russia has no intentions to win this war. The overwhelming quantities of Western military hardware and developing drone technologies balanced this conflict to the point where sudden large advances can end in major numbers of casualties. Russia took over the most valuable industrial areas with around 20% of the total Ukraine territories. If they take Odessa with the small Black Sea ports to the Danube delta this summer they will have every right to call that a victory as the remainder of Ukraine will be in a strategically hopeless position. Putin has to be careful to avoid overwhelming human losses in order to keep his army growing.
If Russia had been more pre-emptive it wouldn't have given the enemy a chance to build up. The enemy would have had no chance to keep replenishing its drone and other supplies and men because the war would have been over. Russia would have taken big losses initially but the result would be total victory rather than the continous wastage of men and equipment over time and no clear victory emboldening the enemy.
Given the recent history of the past 35 years, I see no reason why Russia and the US can reach a true thaw quickly, especially when DJT himself is still on shaky ground. If the GOP lost the mid-term election, not only would Trump have his hands tied up, but even Vance would have a hard time winning the general election. Trump's voter base wants him to focus more on domestic affairs. I think Putin's hard line is the right strategy for Russia, and may even be beneficial to the American people indirectly.
Thank you for clarifying what is going on in the peace negotations. That was much needed after all the confusing statements and interviews of the last days. Apparently, the war is far from over. On the contrary, if Trump implement his threats.
I think Donald is chasing too many hares at the same time. What is probably happening is that EU, Japan and South Korea are forcing a linkage between continuing support for Ukraine from the USA and any tariff negotiations.
What deadlock? Putin should cut through Trump's crap and just walkaway.
Trump isn't an honest broker. He's a party to the conflict. Trump has no grounds to be mad nor does he have any grounds to demand concessions or goodwill gestures from Russia. The U.S. has already committed clear acts of war against Russia. The most recent killing of yet another Russian General is another recent example
It's time to shut Trump up. There's no bargaining with Trump, Trump's team or Congress. Trump has been tapping Putin this whole time and Putin had foolishly payed along.
End this farce now. Russia doesn't need or want U.S. business.
Trump's goal is to find some way of establishing a U.S. presence in Ukraine. It's too late.
Dennis: Food for thought. 🤔 It all very well for those of us sympathetic to the Russian position to keep asserting (not evidence free) that Russia is winning the war, but the Empire and its European vassals don’t seem to agree. That does require a reasoned explanation, rather than a reflex fallback to ‘they are just fools drinking the kool-aid’.
Jack Render: That all makes obvious sense of course. One puzzling thing tho? If the Empire keeps the war going, the final defeat & unconditional surrender of Ukraine will have far worse geo-political consequences for the west, than a negotiated settlement now - even one agreeing all of Russia’s CURRENT terms. Two potential explanations come to mind…… 1: Russia is not as strong as its supporters believe it to be, and The Empire knows it. 2: The Empire is tempting Russia into a position where it simply has to occupy the whole of Ukraine - thus embroiling itself in a decades long insurgency.
The US Empire always wanted this war to bleed Russia. Russians are still dying, and the MIC is still profiting, so why not keep the war going so long as there are Ukrainians willing to fight it to the last Ukrainian?
The Empire cares no more about Ukrainian lives than Stalin did. Maybe less.
You are right, Andrew. It will be very difficult, I would say impossible to break this deadlock. Putin just cannot walk away from his previously stated "nonnegotiable" goals, plus the "root causes" of the conflict. The latter actually go way back to 1991 and the advance of NATO. Best case scenario for Trump is to use the "deadlock" to exit as he and Rubio have insinuated. That will green light Putin to finishing it off without restraints.
Putin is a Russian patriot, which makes him predictable. He will agree to nothing that he believes is contrary to Russian national interests. The question is, just how much war fatigue is there in Russia? How badly do the Russian people want peace, and how much does the Army need peace?
The answers to those questions will play a major role in any decision Putin makes, but I don't know what those answers are.
Trump likes to be the director, the screenplay writer and lead actor at the same time and often the play is so bad, screenplay is terrible and acting is so poor - he has to adjust it on the run.
.
Trump knows where he wants to be but I doubt even Trump know where he is going to end up...
It's what makes the libtards and Bidenites melt, nope, they turn into steam instantly.
What's probably happening is that EU member states (plus associated nations like Norway and Switzerland) have declared that they will not cooperate on tariffs UNLESS the USA gives full support to Ukraine. Personally, I don't think that EU is going to cooperate much on tariffs anyway. But they sense that the Donald's position on tariffs is weakened by internal opposition (partly funded by CCP).
From the economic perspectives, tariff negotiations are of course a much bigger issue than the war in Ukraine.
It is increasingly more difficult to differentiate Trump’s tactical games from temper tantrums. Indications are that the key is the identity of the last person he spoke to. In this case it was Zelensky in all black, this time properly dressed but most certainly out of place. Even if Trump takes an anger management course (unlikely) he might be dealing with a problem that presently has no solution. Ukraine and the U.S. are both asking for a lot and the problem is that they did not win the war.
Sad! But true. Trump probably believed Putin would be persuaded by money - Western investment - in exchange for Western influence in Ukraine.
Trump has learned Putin spits at Western investment. But Putin has probably offered Trump the opportunity to re-invest in Russia with Rubles (not Dollars) but only if Trump abandons Ukraine.
I think Trump will take that deal. Zelensky is going to be thrown to the wolves.
This conflict has turned into a tragic farce. Did the Russian leadership (oligarchs) really think that they could basically just hold their lines with minor advances to get a peace deal when all the signs point to a build-up to future hostilities? Every NATO country has been emboldened by Russia's passive stance. I hear the same old Russia is winning mantra without evidence that it's gaining significant territory. So why are no countries in a hurry to make a peace deal if they're getting soundly beaten. The facts don't add up.
A WW1 scenario is unfolding which can drag out this conflict longer than anyone thinks in a battle of attrition and positional conflict which Russia is content to play so as not to offend the US in its hurried effort to make a deal and settle for less strategically. Repeating the same tactic while expecting a different outcome is foretelling. lol
‘Every NATO country has been emboldened by Russia's passive stance. I hear the same old Russia is winning mantra without evidence that it's gaining significant territory.’
I do not see any serious indications that Russia has no intentions to win this war. The overwhelming quantities of Western military hardware and developing drone technologies balanced this conflict to the point where sudden large advances can end in major numbers of casualties. Russia took over the most valuable industrial areas with around 20% of the total Ukraine territories. If they take Odessa with the small Black Sea ports to the Danube delta this summer they will have every right to call that a victory as the remainder of Ukraine will be in a strategically hopeless position. Putin has to be careful to avoid overwhelming human losses in order to keep his army growing.
If Russia had been more pre-emptive it wouldn't have given the enemy a chance to build up. The enemy would have had no chance to keep replenishing its drone and other supplies and men because the war would have been over. Russia would have taken big losses initially but the result would be total victory rather than the continous wastage of men and equipment over time and no clear victory emboldening the enemy.
Those who think Trump has learned anything from his first term (including the Russian leadership!) will continue to be disappointed.
Trump remains weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Given the recent history of the past 35 years, I see no reason why Russia and the US can reach a true thaw quickly, especially when DJT himself is still on shaky ground. If the GOP lost the mid-term election, not only would Trump have his hands tied up, but even Vance would have a hard time winning the general election. Trump's voter base wants him to focus more on domestic affairs. I think Putin's hard line is the right strategy for Russia, and may even be beneficial to the American people indirectly.
Thank you for clarifying what is going on in the peace negotations. That was much needed after all the confusing statements and interviews of the last days. Apparently, the war is far from over. On the contrary, if Trump implement his threats.
I think Donald is chasing too many hares at the same time. What is probably happening is that EU, Japan and South Korea are forcing a linkage between continuing support for Ukraine from the USA and any tariff negotiations.
What deadlock? Putin should cut through Trump's crap and just walkaway.
Trump isn't an honest broker. He's a party to the conflict. Trump has no grounds to be mad nor does he have any grounds to demand concessions or goodwill gestures from Russia. The U.S. has already committed clear acts of war against Russia. The most recent killing of yet another Russian General is another recent example
It's time to shut Trump up. There's no bargaining with Trump, Trump's team or Congress. Trump has been tapping Putin this whole time and Putin had foolishly payed along.
End this farce now. Russia doesn't need or want U.S. business.
Trump's goal is to find some way of establishing a U.S. presence in Ukraine. It's too late.
Dennis: Food for thought. 🤔 It all very well for those of us sympathetic to the Russian position to keep asserting (not evidence free) that Russia is winning the war, but the Empire and its European vassals don’t seem to agree. That does require a reasoned explanation, rather than a reflex fallback to ‘they are just fools drinking the kool-aid’.
Jack Render: That all makes obvious sense of course. One puzzling thing tho? If the Empire keeps the war going, the final defeat & unconditional surrender of Ukraine will have far worse geo-political consequences for the west, than a negotiated settlement now - even one agreeing all of Russia’s CURRENT terms. Two potential explanations come to mind…… 1: Russia is not as strong as its supporters believe it to be, and The Empire knows it. 2: The Empire is tempting Russia into a position where it simply has to occupy the whole of Ukraine - thus embroiling itself in a decades long insurgency.
The US Empire always wanted this war to bleed Russia. Russians are still dying, and the MIC is still profiting, so why not keep the war going so long as there are Ukrainians willing to fight it to the last Ukrainian?
The Empire cares no more about Ukrainian lives than Stalin did. Maybe less.
You are right, Andrew. It will be very difficult, I would say impossible to break this deadlock. Putin just cannot walk away from his previously stated "nonnegotiable" goals, plus the "root causes" of the conflict. The latter actually go way back to 1991 and the advance of NATO. Best case scenario for Trump is to use the "deadlock" to exit as he and Rubio have insinuated. That will green light Putin to finishing it off without restraints.
Putin is a Russian patriot, which makes him predictable. He will agree to nothing that he believes is contrary to Russian national interests. The question is, just how much war fatigue is there in Russia? How badly do the Russian people want peace, and how much does the Army need peace?
The answers to those questions will play a major role in any decision Putin makes, but I don't know what those answers are.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
What is the obsession with the ZPP all about? Surely even Trump must know it's a non-starter?
How much of everything is a theatre?
Trump likes to be the director, the screenplay writer and lead actor at the same time and often the play is so bad, screenplay is terrible and acting is so poor - he has to adjust it on the run.
.
Trump knows where he wants to be but I doubt even Trump know where he is going to end up...
It's what makes the libtards and Bidenites melt, nope, they turn into steam instantly.
...and I-Fa-Ken-LUV-it
What's probably happening is that EU member states (plus associated nations like Norway and Switzerland) have declared that they will not cooperate on tariffs UNLESS the USA gives full support to Ukraine. Personally, I don't think that EU is going to cooperate much on tariffs anyway. But they sense that the Donald's position on tariffs is weakened by internal opposition (partly funded by CCP).
From the economic perspectives, tariff negotiations are of course a much bigger issue than the war in Ukraine.