The growing convergence between their countries could create a dual pole of economic, political, and security influence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Curious about your comment that the Brahmos missiles can only realistically be used against China, especially after your stating that China is both India’s and Indonesias largest trading partner (Russias too for that matter). China is also a fellow BRICS member. Under what scenario do you see Indonesia firing missiles at China.
The only ones acting upitty in the Indonesian waters were the western powers and Japan. As long as the west keeps its mits from the straits under indonesian control and don't try to restrict China, I am sure it will be all good. I don't really think Indonesia is concerned about the Chinese. They seem less influenced or amenable to US influence than the Phillippines or India: https://rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-sea-denial-trap-why-the-age-of-unrestricted-sea-power-is-ending/
Detterence is the stated purpose for the missiles but may I suggest with the aircraft carrier episode deterrence may not be the only thing, Prabowo has been coveting for over 20 years the presidency and his actions during his term have not been positive for the country and recently the financial markets have suffered and capital has taken flight and economic and financial discipline of the past decades is quickly disappearing with Prabowos 2 pet projects; MBG free lunches and Kop Des merah putih Village cooperatives sucking up quite significant portions of expenditure for little benefit to the economy though highly beneficial to allies via corruption which is endemic in Indonesia alongside collusion and nepotism.
I do sincerely hope your positive outlook will prevail but knowing Indonesia I fear not though. Thanks for your seemingly indefatigable output Andrew it is awesome in both breadth and depth.
Quite close is an easy way to look at the relationship between what could be described as the most extremely different neighbours in the world, many agreements are attempted to be forged but rarely if ever signed and implemented that have any effect but one could say we are always doing the one step forward one and a half back or complete silence after Australia spied on SBY as is it won't also with East Timor and the live cattle export debacle knee jerk action by Australia's government.
Australian leaders talk the talk but seem not to want to be part of Asia or accept the geography and which way the wind is blowing but choose to stand apart and possibly aloof as that is what is perceived by Indonesians generally, also Australia now needs Indonesia more than Indonesia needs Australia.
The old thoughts of Indonesia attacking Australia was generated in one small part of the political spectrum in Australian society but has no grounding in reality in my opinion and can always be recreated if needed.
. That said, nominal GDP is of very little interest for assessing a country's real economic power. GDP at PPP is already less inept. In GDP at PPP, India is already world No. 3, far ahead of Russia, at nearly $18,000 billion versus $7.2 for Russia."
One might note, for example, that a surgical procedure costs on average 5 times more in the USA than anywhere else in a developed country (for a health situation ranking at the bottom of the developed world). Likewise, the cost of education is also at least five times higher than in any other developed country (for a PISA result close to Turkey's...). The two together represent 25% of US GDP, i.e. $7,500 billion; divide by five, then add back to 22,500, that gives $24,000 billion in GDP, and everything else is similar. By studying the fundamentals of Western countries (apart from Germany) a little carefully, one realizes that they are on the brink of decline and already largely surpassed by the Asian champions. The UK is in the most lamentable state, France and Italy not far behind, and the USA, once the bright screens are set aside, is in a pathetic situation held up only by the power of the dollar."
I've heard that theory, but it only makes sense when you aren't bidding for the same asset. $500K in North Dakota is a lot of money. It's not in New York, but thaf doesn't matter if a Noryh Dakotan and New Yorker are bidding on the same Florida real estate.
I don't know if you have notice it but there is a little more people who live in New York, LA, Chicago, Frisco or Miami than in Dakota, North of South.
And you know what? I always had an old dream, buying a ranch in Montana or Oregon to retire. So, since more than 20 years I've been dreaming on the real estate listings in those two state.
20 years ago, the prices were astonishingly low compared to France. But those ten years, they have skyrocketing to the price of houses in front of the sea in Cote d'Azur.
Exit m'y redneck American dream. Bouhou, I'll never be a cowboy. :)
Now, more than ever, Australia must dis-engage from political and security alliances with USA and UK and align with our immediate geographic neighbours in Asia, particularly Indonesia and India. That is where our trading future lies - not with far away nations that only see Australia as a launch pad for their hegemonic desires.
I suspect from India's perspective, BRICS is not that important, although India will be happy to play along as much as it can afford. I think what India really wants to do is to become the unspoken leader of the nonalignment movement. BRICS is dominated by Russia in military technology and by China in net financial power (at least for now). Iran is clearly tilting toward Russia and Pakistan. Brazil is highly compatible, but too far. Within the immediate future, I think India will do well with closer ties with Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.
Kouros, Prabowo bought a seat on the Gaza Trump board and got both Muhamadiyah and NU the two big Islamic organisations with approximately 40 to 50 million members onside, the Islamic power bases are both part of Prabowos coalition and both accepted payment in the form of state granted coal mining licenses so have sold their votes already.
The Islamist section of Indonesia's religious organisations are either outlawed as terrorist organisations or marginalised, also Prabowo comes from a Christian family though he is nominally Muslim so the fact that Indonesia has the largest population of Muslims in the world is barely reflected in its foreign policy I believe and Prabowo has control over its political power base except for PKS which is quite small and lacks much influence.
Curious about your comment that the Brahmos missiles can only realistically be used against China, especially after your stating that China is both India’s and Indonesias largest trading partner (Russias too for that matter). China is also a fellow BRICS member. Under what scenario do you see Indonesia firing missiles at China.
The only scenario is a major crisis in the South China Sea, but even then, I assess the odds of an Indonesian-Chinese clash to be low.
Indonesia’s obtainment of these missiles is for, what its leadership sincerely believes (right or wrong), deterrence purposes.
The only ones acting upitty in the Indonesian waters were the western powers and Japan. As long as the west keeps its mits from the straits under indonesian control and don't try to restrict China, I am sure it will be all good. I don't really think Indonesia is concerned about the Chinese. They seem less influenced or amenable to US influence than the Phillippines or India: https://rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-sea-denial-trap-why-the-age-of-unrestricted-sea-power-is-ending/
Detterence is the stated purpose for the missiles but may I suggest with the aircraft carrier episode deterrence may not be the only thing, Prabowo has been coveting for over 20 years the presidency and his actions during his term have not been positive for the country and recently the financial markets have suffered and capital has taken flight and economic and financial discipline of the past decades is quickly disappearing with Prabowos 2 pet projects; MBG free lunches and Kop Des merah putih Village cooperatives sucking up quite significant portions of expenditure for little benefit to the economy though highly beneficial to allies via corruption which is endemic in Indonesia alongside collusion and nepotism.
I do sincerely hope your positive outlook will prevail but knowing Indonesia I fear not though. Thanks for your seemingly indefatigable output Andrew it is awesome in both breadth and depth.
I suspect another potential target: Australia.
I was surprised to learn some years back that they’re actually pretty close. They just signed a new military deal earlier this year too:
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/australia-and-indonesia-sign-historic-security-treaty
Quite close is an easy way to look at the relationship between what could be described as the most extremely different neighbours in the world, many agreements are attempted to be forged but rarely if ever signed and implemented that have any effect but one could say we are always doing the one step forward one and a half back or complete silence after Australia spied on SBY as is it won't also with East Timor and the live cattle export debacle knee jerk action by Australia's government.
Australian leaders talk the talk but seem not to want to be part of Asia or accept the geography and which way the wind is blowing but choose to stand apart and possibly aloof as that is what is perceived by Indonesians generally, also Australia now needs Indonesia more than Indonesia needs Australia.
The old thoughts of Indonesia attacking Australia was generated in one small part of the political spectrum in Australian society but has no grounding in reality in my opinion and can always be recreated if needed.
Thanks for this precious insight!
. That said, nominal GDP is of very little interest for assessing a country's real economic power. GDP at PPP is already less inept. In GDP at PPP, India is already world No. 3, far ahead of Russia, at nearly $18,000 billion versus $7.2 for Russia."
One might note, for example, that a surgical procedure costs on average 5 times more in the USA than anywhere else in a developed country (for a health situation ranking at the bottom of the developed world). Likewise, the cost of education is also at least five times higher than in any other developed country (for a PISA result close to Turkey's...). The two together represent 25% of US GDP, i.e. $7,500 billion; divide by five, then add back to 22,500, that gives $24,000 billion in GDP, and everything else is similar. By studying the fundamentals of Western countries (apart from Germany) a little carefully, one realizes that they are on the brink of decline and already largely surpassed by the Asian champions. The UK is in the most lamentable state, France and Italy not far behind, and the USA, once the bright screens are set aside, is in a pathetic situation held up only by the power of the dollar."
I've heard that theory, but it only makes sense when you aren't bidding for the same asset. $500K in North Dakota is a lot of money. It's not in New York, but thaf doesn't matter if a Noryh Dakotan and New Yorker are bidding on the same Florida real estate.
I don't know if you have notice it but there is a little more people who live in New York, LA, Chicago, Frisco or Miami than in Dakota, North of South.
And you know what? I always had an old dream, buying a ranch in Montana or Oregon to retire. So, since more than 20 years I've been dreaming on the real estate listings in those two state.
20 years ago, the prices were astonishingly low compared to France. But those ten years, they have skyrocketing to the price of houses in front of the sea in Cote d'Azur.
Exit m'y redneck American dream. Bouhou, I'll never be a cowboy. :)
The number of people doesn't matter. One rich north dakotan can.outbid a poor new.yorker.
Now, more than ever, Australia must dis-engage from political and security alliances with USA and UK and align with our immediate geographic neighbours in Asia, particularly Indonesia and India. That is where our trading future lies - not with far away nations that only see Australia as a launch pad for their hegemonic desires.
Item 4. Cooperation within BRICS
I suspect from India's perspective, BRICS is not that important, although India will be happy to play along as much as it can afford. I think what India really wants to do is to become the unspoken leader of the nonalignment movement. BRICS is dominated by Russia in military technology and by China in net financial power (at least for now). Iran is clearly tilting toward Russia and Pakistan. Brazil is highly compatible, but too far. Within the immediate future, I think India will do well with closer ties with Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.
But, but, but, they are muslem! I am not sure Indonesia likes Israel. How could he do that?!
Kouros, Prabowo bought a seat on the Gaza Trump board and got both Muhamadiyah and NU the two big Islamic organisations with approximately 40 to 50 million members onside, the Islamic power bases are both part of Prabowos coalition and both accepted payment in the form of state granted coal mining licenses so have sold their votes already.
The Islamist section of Indonesia's religious organisations are either outlawed as terrorist organisations or marginalised, also Prabowo comes from a Christian family though he is nominally Muslim so the fact that Indonesia has the largest population of Muslims in the world is barely reflected in its foreign policy I believe and Prabowo has control over its political power base except for PKS which is quite small and lacks much influence.