Thanks Andrew for taking up the issue. That was a close one. I am still surprised that EU/NATO was unable to manipulate the results in the background. It looks the Poles have more common sense than Romania in this case. The new Roman president just went to Vilnus and met his new boss there, Zelensky. I would not be surprised if one day Poland, Slovakia and Hungary started to drag their feet on land delivery of hardware and Romania remained the last bridge to Ukraine from the West. That would surely force some strategic recalibration all over. The Hungarians are already planning a referendum on the issue of EU membership for Ukraine.
Yes, you are correct there. At the same time their potential loss by being pushed into this war is absolutely critical. They can simply not afford a group of politicians held on short leash by EU/NATO. Romanian economy is extremely poor and corrupted. Călin Georgescu just reported a few days ago he will NOT participate in the political process although he was the one who won the first round of the elections. This guy knows precisely what is coming and it is not going to be nice. I would not be surprised if Romania steamrolls the opposition and actively engages in the war against Russia. Of course, on the long run this would open the door toward the possibility of a dissolution of the Romanian state as it presently stands.
This is a good sign, the mood in Poland is changing, people are changing and challenging their supposedly set in stone opinion regarding Russia. One Polish professor recently even told me that he doesn't believe one word of propaganda vis-a-vis Russia any more.
Thanks once again for a first rate analysis of the issues.
Looking at the larger picture, may I ask; do you think that there is any prospect of an historic reconciliation between Russia and Poland, which are, if not exactly fraternal peoples, but ‘cousinly’ at least.
I mean, the whole thing about a Russian threat to Poland a post-Ukrainian settlement seems so ridiculous as not to warrant consideration, and yet we read about it constantly in the popular media.
I'm very doubtful that they'll ever be a rapprochement anytime soon on the level of post-war Germany and the then-USSR for example.
If Trzaskowski had won, then there'd still be more bilateral tensions since he and Tusk nowadays fiercely hate Putin and Russia for liberal-globalist ideological reasons.
As for Nawrocki, his PiS backers (he's formally an independent) are proud Russophobes due to their historical perception of Russia and associated views about its future intentions.
That said, it's hypothetically possible that a changing of the guard within PiS (i.e. Kaczynski and his similarly older top allies' retirement) could lead to some foreign policy recalibrations.
I'm not getting my hopes up though, but there's a very far-fetched chance that Trump's "peace through strength" paradigm might one day be replicated by Poland.
For that to happen, however, it'll have to complete its militarization program and conservatives would need to regain control of the Sejm (likely in alliance with populists).
Only after this scenario sequence, which is far from assured, *might* (key qualifier) some meaningful changes in Polish policy towards Russia begin to be considered.
I'm unsure what form that would take, however, since Poland has already "decoupled" from a large degree of its pre-SMO energy dependence on Russia.
Expensive LNG infrastructure and the like have already been built so going back to the large-scale import of Russian pipeline gas would render those investments null and void.
It would also detract from Poland's stated goal of "energy sovereignty" vis-a-vis Russia, which it's pursuing for self-declared strategic reasons.
However, ramping up real-sector trade across Belarus and/or Ukraine is possible, as is Poland facilitating more EU-Chinese trade via those countries and Russia.
Again, I'm not too optimistic to be candid, but what I explained is the most realistic, albeit in my assessment, still very unlikely way in which an improvement in their ties could unfold.
To answer your question: no. Not only will nobody in Europe or the US allow it, Polish self-image as the anti-Russia, the Special Little Buddy to the West is at stake.
Nationalist tide is going to sweep Europe and pull the rug from beneath the feet of liberal-globalists. Try as they might, the globalists cannot really preempt it.
I'm not so optimistic, to be honest, since the Moldovan, German, and especially the latest Romanian case show how difficult that'll be in certain countries for various reasons.
It’s like Trump 2020, but the more the people see the alternative (e.g. Merz), the more ready they become to break taboo and vote for AfD or similar. Some people will remain firmly brainwashed, but when they saw how fast Merz went back on his promises after the election, support for AfD grew. Austria already had to have a coalition with the further right wing. Merz is attacking the sacrosanct fiscal rectitude of Germany rather than go back to normal and deal with immigration. Sooner or later the middle ground will shift…
Nawrocki will be turned. A snap of the fingers from some American and polish knees hit the floor, grateful for the opportunity to fellate their American Master.
Now that Nawrocki has gotten what he wants from the nationalists, they will find his word worthless.
Thanks Andrew for taking up the issue. That was a close one. I am still surprised that EU/NATO was unable to manipulate the results in the background. It looks the Poles have more common sense than Romania in this case. The new Roman president just went to Vilnus and met his new boss there, Zelensky. I would not be surprised if one day Poland, Slovakia and Hungary started to drag their feet on land delivery of hardware and Romania remained the last bridge to Ukraine from the West. That would surely force some strategic recalibration all over. The Hungarians are already planning a referendum on the issue of EU membership for Ukraine.
Yes, you are correct there. At the same time their potential loss by being pushed into this war is absolutely critical. They can simply not afford a group of politicians held on short leash by EU/NATO. Romanian economy is extremely poor and corrupted. Călin Georgescu just reported a few days ago he will NOT participate in the political process although he was the one who won the first round of the elections. This guy knows precisely what is coming and it is not going to be nice. I would not be surprised if Romania steamrolls the opposition and actively engages in the war against Russia. Of course, on the long run this would open the door toward the possibility of a dissolution of the Romanian state as it presently stands.
Election shows that split between Eurocrats and nationalists is deep and real.
This is a good sign, the mood in Poland is changing, people are changing and challenging their supposedly set in stone opinion regarding Russia. One Polish professor recently even told me that he doesn't believe one word of propaganda vis-a-vis Russia any more.
Thanks once again for a first rate analysis of the issues.
Looking at the larger picture, may I ask; do you think that there is any prospect of an historic reconciliation between Russia and Poland, which are, if not exactly fraternal peoples, but ‘cousinly’ at least.
I mean, the whole thing about a Russian threat to Poland a post-Ukrainian settlement seems so ridiculous as not to warrant consideration, and yet we read about it constantly in the popular media.
I'm very doubtful that they'll ever be a rapprochement anytime soon on the level of post-war Germany and the then-USSR for example.
If Trzaskowski had won, then there'd still be more bilateral tensions since he and Tusk nowadays fiercely hate Putin and Russia for liberal-globalist ideological reasons.
As for Nawrocki, his PiS backers (he's formally an independent) are proud Russophobes due to their historical perception of Russia and associated views about its future intentions.
That said, it's hypothetically possible that a changing of the guard within PiS (i.e. Kaczynski and his similarly older top allies' retirement) could lead to some foreign policy recalibrations.
I'm not getting my hopes up though, but there's a very far-fetched chance that Trump's "peace through strength" paradigm might one day be replicated by Poland.
For that to happen, however, it'll have to complete its militarization program and conservatives would need to regain control of the Sejm (likely in alliance with populists).
Only after this scenario sequence, which is far from assured, *might* (key qualifier) some meaningful changes in Polish policy towards Russia begin to be considered.
I'm unsure what form that would take, however, since Poland has already "decoupled" from a large degree of its pre-SMO energy dependence on Russia.
Expensive LNG infrastructure and the like have already been built so going back to the large-scale import of Russian pipeline gas would render those investments null and void.
It would also detract from Poland's stated goal of "energy sovereignty" vis-a-vis Russia, which it's pursuing for self-declared strategic reasons.
However, ramping up real-sector trade across Belarus and/or Ukraine is possible, as is Poland facilitating more EU-Chinese trade via those countries and Russia.
Again, I'm not too optimistic to be candid, but what I explained is the most realistic, albeit in my assessment, still very unlikely way in which an improvement in their ties could unfold.
Thanks very much - greatly appreciated.
To answer your question: no. Not only will nobody in Europe or the US allow it, Polish self-image as the anti-Russia, the Special Little Buddy to the West is at stake.
Nationalist tide is going to sweep Europe and pull the rug from beneath the feet of liberal-globalists. Try as they might, the globalists cannot really preempt it.
I'm not so optimistic, to be honest, since the Moldovan, German, and especially the latest Romanian case show how difficult that'll be in certain countries for various reasons.
It’s like Trump 2020, but the more the people see the alternative (e.g. Merz), the more ready they become to break taboo and vote for AfD or similar. Some people will remain firmly brainwashed, but when they saw how fast Merz went back on his promises after the election, support for AfD grew. Austria already had to have a coalition with the further right wing. Merz is attacking the sacrosanct fiscal rectitude of Germany rather than go back to normal and deal with immigration. Sooner or later the middle ground will shift…
No. The powers that be will not allow it.
Conservative or not, this guy is morally bankrupt.
Nawrocki will be turned. A snap of the fingers from some American and polish knees hit the floor, grateful for the opportunity to fellate their American Master.
Now that Nawrocki has gotten what he wants from the nationalists, they will find his word worthless.
Nawrocki could be controlled opposition, but we shall see.