Five Takeaways From Ukraine’s Encirclement

Putin is once again extending an olive branch to Zelensky and Trump in his latest goodwill gesture because he truly doesn’t want the conflict to drag on nor to expand Russia’s territorial claims as would likely then happen.

Putin announced that more than ten thousand Ukrainian troops were encircled in Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk), with his Ministry of Defense soon adding Dimitrov (Mirnograd) near the latter to the list. The Russian leader also proposed halting the fighting so that foreign journalists, including Ukrainian ones, can travel to the front to report on this. Putin suggested a mass surrender just like early 2022’s Azovstal standoff, but Zelensky seems uninterested, at least for now. Here’s what it all means:

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1. Russia Continues To Gain Ground Despite Billions In Western Aid For Ukraine

The Economist recently published a piece lobbying for Europe to fund Ukraine over the next four years, which they claim will cost taxpayers at least $390 billion. Their article also reported that $100-110 billion was spent this year, “the highest sum yet”, for a total of $360 billion since 2022 (likely an underestimate). Quite clearly, Western aid hasn’t succeeded in pushing Russia back, only in decelerating its gains. Ukraine’s encirclement therefore shows that no amount of money will inflict a strategic defeat for Russia.

2. The Gravy Train Might End If Ukraine Acknowledges This Encirclement

Building upon the above, Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky have denied these encirclements, most likely because they fear that the aforesaid gravy train might end or at least slow down if they order their forces to surrender. After all, the loss of thousands of troops in three encirclements over 3.5 years into the conflict is no small matter, which might make some Western officials reconsider funding Ukraine since the victory that they were promised is no longer in sight.

3. Russia’s Capture Of These Three Settlements Would Be A Pretty Big Deal

Whether Ukrainian forces are eliminated or they surrender, Russia’s capture of these three settlements would be a pretty big deal, especially Krasnoarmeisk’s/Pokrovsk’s since it’s the gateway to Dnipropetrovsk Region where Russian forces have already entered earlier this summer. Any continued advance along the unguarded plains beyond the aforesaid settlement could coerce Ukraine into complying with Russia’s demands for peace or prompt the US into “escalating to de-escalate”.

4. Putin’s Prefers A Swift Political Settlement Over A Protracted War Of Attrition

Contrary to what some have assessed, Putin doesn’t want the conflict to drag on nor does he want to expand Russia’s territorial claims, ergo why he’s called on Ukraine’s encircled troops to surrender. He expects that this goodwill gesture could lead to Ukraine’s withdrawal from the rest of Donbass and then a swift political settlement that satisfies Russia’s other goals. Zelensky wants to keep fighting for the earlier mentioned self-interested reasons, however, so it’ll ultimately come down to what Trump wants.

5. Trump Must Soon Decide Whether He Wants To Make This War His Own

Trump considers the Ukrainian Conflict to be “Biden’s war” and insists that it wouldn’t have happened had he won the 2020 election, yet he must soon decide whether he wants peace like he claims or if he’s willing to make this war his own by indefinitely perpetuating it. Putin is giving him an off-ramp by calling on Ukraine’s encircled troops to surrender as a means of reviving the frozen peace talks so it’s on Trump whether to pressure Zelensky into complying or accept his defiance with all that entails.

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The newfound encirclement of Ukrainian forces in those three settlements is therefore much more important than it might seem at first glance given the insight that was just shared above. Putin is once again extending an olive branch to Zelensky and Trump in his latest goodwill gesture because he truly doesn’t want the conflict to drag on nor to expand Russia’s territorial claims as would likely then happen. This moment will thus be seen as a milestone in hindsight no matter what Trump decides to do.