France’s Planned Nuclear Drills With Poland Just Made It Russia’s Top Adversary In Europe
Any crisis with the Baltic States, such as if Russia intercepts Ukrainian drones over their airspace, could now lead to a French-Russian crisis with nuclear stakes if Poland rushes to their rescue and Paris extends its nuclear umbrella further eastward to cover its ally.
A Russian pollster recently discovered that “More Russians Perceive Poland To Be An Enemy Than They Do Any Other Country”, yet it turns out that their country’s top adversary in Europe is actually France, which plans to carry out regular nuclear drills with Poland aimed against Russia and Belarus. Per Polish media, “French nuclear warheads will not be permanently deployed in Poland, but they will periodically be deployed under Rafale aircraft, which will participate in joint exercises with the Polish Air Force.”
Specifically, “Polish aircraft will identify targets that, if necessary, can be attacked by French aircraft equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles…[Polish cruise] missiles are hypothetically intended to target so-called high-value targets in the St. Petersburg area.” Moreover, “The French will simulate the use of nuclear warheads during the exercise. Rafale B aircraft are capable of flying from France to the Budapest-Kaliningrad line and practicing attacks on targets in Russia and Belarus.”
This was agreed upon during French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Gdansk where they told the media that they discussed nuclear cooperation. Gdansk is Tusk’s hometown but it’s also ominously the place where World War II broke out. France’s planned nuclear drills might come as a shock to casual observers, but Macron has been talking about this since last March, which in turn prompted Tusk to do the same. Here are some background briefings:
* 14 March 2025: “France’s Next Quarterly Nuclear Drills Might Become Prestige-Building Exercises With Poland”
* 15 March 2025: “Poland’s Talk About Obtaining Nukes Is Likely A Misguided Negotiation Tactic With The US”
* 24 September 2025: “The US Is Expected To Tacitly Back Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
* 16 February 2026: “Trump 2.0 Must Urgently Declare Its Position Towards Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
* 28 March 2026: “Interpreting The US’ Informal Opposition To Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
In short, France is once again in a “friendly competition” with Germany for leadership of Europe, to which end the eastward extension of its nuclear umbrella is envisaged giving it a strategic edge. Likewise, Poland envisages leading Central & Eastern Europe, but growing concerns about the US’ reliability led to it flirting with nukes. Those two realized that their interests are best served through the nuclear partnership that was just agreed to, which also shifts the burden for containing Russia away from the US.
The trigger for tangibly setting these plans into motion was Trump’s rejection of Putin’s proposal to extend the New START for another year, thus dismantling their last arms control pact. The risk of a global nuclear arms race spiked, and coupled with the US’ renewed focus on West Asia and Trump’s hints that he’ll hang NATO out to dry in a war with Russia for not helping him open Hormuz, France and Poland decided to take the plunge. The European security architecture is now indelibly altered.
France thus became Russia’s top adversary in Europe since any crisis with the Baltic States, such as if Russia intercepts Ukrainian drones over their airspace, could now lead to a French-Russian crisis with nuclear stakes if Poland rushes to their rescue and Paris extends its nuclear umbrella further eastward to cover its ally. Through these means, Ukraine can now spark a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis at any time, but it might hold off till all players have time to practice and perfect this escalation sequence.
Apologies for that very long post, but it must be said.
That Macron is an irresponsible showman is nothing new.
But two things terrify me:
There is absolutely no political or media reaction in France. None. I was certain that such madness would trigger a scandal, because it touches on the constitutional fundamentals of a French president’s powers regarding nuclear weapons. Nothing. Simply nothing. It’s terrifying.
No strong official Russian reaction either. Barely Medvedev lamenting that it’s not nice. Have they all gone mad? Putin is becoming completely unreadable and looks more and more like a timid old hen. Has he already forgotten that his hesitancy and his appalling lack of firmness already forced Russia to get bogged down in Ukraine and lose hundreds of thousands of precious Russian lives? Hasn’t he still understood the twisted psychology of Westerners? Does he still take them for reasonable people? Hasn’t he understood that, not just once but several times, these countries of Western continental Europe have lost everything—not over a logical challenge, but over a mere ideological chimera, fleeting glory, or simple pride?
It’s inherent to the history of Western Europe.
Doesn’t he know that France is the world champion, in every category, of foolish wars—wars with no real interest that end up ruining it, or even destroying it entirely?
A brief reminder of useless and ruinous wars launched by the French or for which the French were the main cause:
12th century: Crusades. The lesser and middle French nobility lost almost all their economic power there, to the benefit of the Church and the urban bourgeoisie.
14th century: Hundred Years’ War, sparked by the underhand refusal of some great feudal lords to accept Edward III of England as king, even though he was the direct heir of Philip the Fair.
15th century: Charles VIII, Italian Wars. No interest. None.
17th century: Louis XIV. War of the League of Augsburg; War of the Spanish Succession.
19th century: Revolution and Empire—20 years of war ending disastrously for three avoidable reasons of pride:
the pointless occupation of Holland, provoking irreconcilable war with England
the pointless occupation of northern Italy and Dalmatia, alienating the Austrian Empire
the pointless support of the Poles, alienating the Russian Empire
Trafalgar, Berezina, Waterloo, loss of sovereignty.
19th century: Costly and pointless invasion of Algeria (40 years…), which cost Charles X his throne.
19th century: Napoleon III, Mexican expedition—ruinous, useless, humiliating.
19th century: Napoleon III, Crimean War—150,000 dead to defend British strategic interests.
1870: Disastrous Franco-Prussian War—probably the most foolish of all; he lost his throne.
20th century: 1939—inept declaration of war on Germany, with no hope of victory, in the name of keeping one’s word… to Poland and to the British.
20th century: 20 years of decolonization wars, where the British disengaged in just two years.
And I’ve probably forgotten some.
And it’s this country that Putin lets play with nuclear weapons on his borders.
Not immediately reining in the “child-king” of the Élysée and the boastful French bourgeoisie is a sure path to catastrophe.
Macron will decidedly spare no dirty tricks to his people.