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Kennewick Man's avatar

Absolutely great work. When all is taken into consideration together with the aggressive drive to incorporate Canada and Greenland and limiting the Ukraine conflict, I see a preparation for a major conflict against China with a new version of Manifest Destiny on the horizon. Deep down there is another issue. Through various researches I have learned in the last decade that America is already blessed with Soviet style statistical and data control and that is a direct (negative) result of the close to total information control. From population to economic and health care stats, everything is modified, pacified and cleaned. Below the great employment numbers and GNP data there hides a giant, nonproductive service sector and welfare class. The actual industrial output was shrinking endlessly and rustbelts are multiplying like bunnies in Australia. One can observe giant homeless camps in most American cities. Infrastructure is often at the end of the rope. One really has to travel in the U.S. and observe to fully recognize this process. Trump’s trade war is also aiming to forcefully reindustrialize the U.S. at any price, trying to jumpstart domestic production. The present absurd level of dependence on Chinese made consumer goods by itself can bring absurd consequences in case of a major conflict with China. Once I made the mistake to settle in a rustbelt town after reading the rosy pictures painted on government controlled websites about average income and employment data. The reality on the ground has fully horrified me. It was abandoned large homes for $5,000/each, struggling men for minimum wage jobs, huge jail and addict population, fanatic WOKE leadership in control, corrupted to the bone law enforcement and a lot more.

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Apr 3, 2025
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Kennewick Man's avatar

The high tariffs will produce industrial rejuvenation inside the U.S. and that is guaranteed. It is a very simple formula: The demand will be there, the outside supply will become prohibitively expensive; therefore domestic production will become necessary and feasible. If this formula will not work the problem will be caused by expert labor issues and lack of qualified workforce. U.S. industry might have simply deteriorated to the point of no return. People will scream to be enslaved by China just to have their cheap bicycles.

Ladyc's avatar

I agree with most of your comments, but the problems are compounded by democrat policies in all large cities and constant pretending to cater to the lowest common denominator in society as a pretext for corrupt looting. If you live in a rural Republican majority town, America is still populated by original Americans, and it functions. It is still growing more expensive to live there and there is some hopelessness but it’s relatively volumes better. Europe is also having to grapple with imported welfare recipients who are turning large cities into ruin as well and breeding faster than natives. Hence Asia has the advantage long term unless the west does way more than Trump is doing. But Trump’s trade policies are designed also to help offset cuts in government spending through higher investment and net exports- rebalancing the structure of the economy. Next is revision of the monetary side of Bretton Woods and possibly gold backing of the dollar before his term ends if he can fix the fiscal side.

Kouros's avatar

I would not bet on it. Beside lacking the workforce and the ready infrastructure, the federal legislation is at odds, since on the financial side, the incentives for shareholders, investors, managers is to outsource. Thank you Wall Street... Only tariffs will not help. Plus, the world is different now, and US is not the leading technology powerhouse anylonger. Probably wouldn't know how to make a big screen smart HD TV on a factory floor to kill them.

marco aureollo's avatar

The fourth aim is to force the entire world to pay via tariffs for thre US/Israel war on Iran.

The risk of US bancruptcy: economic and moral has never been greater. The lack of legitimacy of US "democracy" and its institutions has been visible for some time already. Throw a military overextension and ineptitude od people like Hegseth and Waltz as well as hubristic megalomania of narcisistic POTUS and we have an explosive mixture. We are witnessing the death troes of a desperate US hegemon lashing out. Multipolarity will prevail.

Saul Badman's avatar

It's also important to note that the formula for determining tariff-levels is (trade deficit) divided (0.25*4*Imports), which is a middle-school bullshitter's way of trying to obfuscate: trade deficit divided by imports. (And if the US doesn't run a bilateral trade deficit with a given country, the tariff is 10%)

This incentivizes other countries to increase imports from the US and thereby shrink the trade deficit the US runs with them; if they do that, they can be rewarded with lower tariffs. At least in the short- (and maybe medium-) term, that means buying more US-made oil, LNG, weapons, and communications equipment or services (*cough* spyware) - or paying more for what they already purchase routinely. In short: it's a tax you can avoid by subsidizing American industry.

Lastly, the US is in the process of refinancing ~$10 trillion of debt this year, so it's particularly sensitive to interest rates set by bond markets. By threatening a global recession via trade disruption, Trump's trade war incentivizes capital to flow from stocks (whose value will take a hit) into bonds, allowing the US to refinance its debt at lower rates and increasing its fiscal runway (which is already quite short).

Borges's avatar

The question is: how to transfer the industrial park from China to the US? Convincing the Capitalists that they should "support" their country, even if it reduces their profit margin? Let's go back to Earth and analyze the LOGIC of the capitalist mode of production: Profit! Before the big capitalists were Americans, they were CAPITALISTS! And Capital has no country! Marx hits the target again! Bingo!

Nakayama's avatar

At best, the US’ supply chain sovereignty can be improved if there are many other matching actions (all taking a decade or more to be effective.) Rome was not built in a day, nor destroyed in a day. As for other goals, he would have expected too much. Let's see how much imports from China is really cut in a year.

JustPlainBill's avatar

I agree that it will be years before much beneficial effect on US manufacturing will be felt. In the meantime, there is presently a LOT of stuff that just can't be US sourced. There might be an early minor improvement in the US trade balance due to lower demand for discretionary goods whose prices will be higher because of the tariffs.

Feral Finster's avatar

Even if there were some master plan here, investments such as manufacturing require long-term stability. This isn't something you can flick on and off like a light switch.

Meanwhile, if my goal were to unite just about everyone against the US, Trump is putting on a master class.

Bubby's avatar

The nations were already against the US. The EU has turned authoritarian and has rid themselves of free speech and has been trying to stop US tech companies from giving their citizens a forum for expressing themselves. China already has been hostile against the US and of course so has Turkey, Iran, and when the Biden administration cut Russia out of SWIFT and blew up Nordstream they created an enemy.

Putting tariffs on countries that have been using them against America for decades is what they call "turnabout."

Feral Finster's avatar

The idea that the US is a bastion of free speech is a joke.

Moreover, the actual tariffs were calculated on the basis of trade deficits, not reciprocal tariffs.

Bubby's avatar

When 6 police come to your house to arrest you because you complained about your kid's school in a WhatsApp group, you are not a bastion of free speech. When the EU cancels elections and boasts they'll do it again you're not living in a free nation. When the top candidate for president is barred from office and sentenced to jail you are not living in a free nation.

Spare me.

Feral Finster's avatar

Nobody said the EU was a bastion of free speech. Moreover, tariffs are not th4 way to address civil liberties concerns.

Like Trump, you are confused and confusing.

Bubby's avatar

If you take away the EU's revenue you put their "leadership" on thinner ground. You lack a keen grasp of the obvious.

Feral Finster's avatar

Except you don't even do that. Moreover, if Trump truly cared about free speech in other countries, there's more effective amd more targeted measures.

Bubby's avatar

The other reason - one of the primary ones I think - is to deny European nations money they obtain from taxing U.S. goods. They use this revenue to prop up their regimes which are hostile to American interests and keep their increasingly unpopular politicians in power.

Brian James's avatar

Great article and comments.

March 08, 2019 Free Trade Vs. Fair Trade

The regulation of commercial activity across countries is the focus of free trade and fair trade policies, but both address the topic from different perspectives. Free trade focuses on the reduction of barriers and policies that favor certain countries or industries. Fair trade, however, favors the rights of workers, improved working conditions and seeks to eliminate pay discrepancies from country to country.

https://smallbusiness.chron.com/trade-vs-fair-trade-1683.html

Sep 21, 2012 The Myth of the Free Market Cartel | by Murray N. Rothbard

https://youtu.be/H6Opvlmy8i8

Ohio Barbarian's avatar

My, with a couple of exceptions who really stand out, this is the most claptrap I've ever seen in the comments on one of your threads, Andrew.

I must disagree with your contention this time. I think you give Trump more credit than he deserves. I don't think he has a plan. I think he's just throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks.

The tariffs are based on absurd mathematics. Trump is trying to do two things--first, restore the balance of TRADE between the US and other nations through tariffs. It cannot work with countries like Lesotho whose people can't afford US imports in the first place. With others I suppose it can be an effective, if crude, negotiating tactic.

Second, the amount of revenue promised by the tariffs just happens to coincide with the cost of making Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy permanent. Look for his people saying that in the next few weeks. It's smoke & mirrors.

Never forget that Trump is first and foremost a carnival barker, a snake-oil salesman, a con man who sees himself as The Big Deal-making Mob Boss.

Eve's avatar

Thank you very much for this analysis. Globalization has been massively destructive to the world. It has brought us in America economically to our knees. Globalist predators are responsible for mass population deaths from injected poisons that were masqueraded as vaccines. Congress prepared in advance for this by passing the PREP act which is a liability shield for every member of the health care community who followed government orders, no matter how many deaths they caused. Millions have been killed all around the world. There was a fake pandemic that was the excuse for a military operation complete with PSYOPS. That military op was COVID 19.

Globalization hollowed out Rust Belt communities of good middle class jobs. If you have a downturn in the economy, you cannot improve the economy with service sector or financial jobs alone. Without a manufacturing base the US is totally dependent upon other countries and their good will. All of this loss of the US m'f'g base was planned well in advance and part of it was instituted by George Bush Sr.

The globalists used the CIA and other intel agencies to destabilize nation after nation, assassinate democratically elected leaders, rig elections, and then they turned their sights on America and attempted all of this here in America. These are not good people at all.

Unfortunately given that this has been years in the making, EVERY SINGLE BRANCH OF OUR GOVERNMENT has been infiltrated with globalist representatives, and is broken. Each branch is working to prevent Trump from achieving his many goals for the American people.

But this is about to change. John Ratcliffe has asked DOGE to help root out corruption at CIA, and President Trump will now begin to have all the details on all CIA ops and operatives, even the operatives currently working at the White House, all of whom report back to the CIA daily.

This is how the era of globalization is going to end. It must end in order for western civilization to survive, because the globalists aligned themselves against western civilization and are doing all they can to bring it down in Ireland, the UK, the EU, Canada, and Australia. Even Israel has a deep state trying to bring the country to its knees.

I don't have any data on Trump wanting to start a war with China. That would be the neocons and the CIA who are about to find out they are no longer in power. Trump promised to get us out of forever wars, not to start wars.

But the tariff issue with China, if they do not come to the negotiating table, means China's economy will fail. I believe China will choose the negotiating table rather than war with the US.

James Schwartz's avatar

With Canada being controlled by China and the globalists in Europe Trump had to shake the world up. He knows England and Germany are on the brink of collapse so him pulling back from Ukraine and essentially NATO plus the tariffs it has Europe shitting itself plus while the liberals scream why is he doing this to our closest allies? The truth is they have all been ripping off the US for decades. How in the world can we have these massive trade imbalances with a continent that produces nothing? US tech leads the world and the EU fines the shit out of it. It’s high time this ends. He is also bringing back manufacturing from China which is the main goal. Canada will be part of the US soon because there’s no possible way we can allow China on our border. Trump spent the four years out of office creating a plan that would not only make America great again it would ruin the globalists plans and crush China in the process.

Kouros's avatar

As for Canada being part of US, I wouldn't bet on that. And the idea that China would come on US Northern border is as preposterous as the big lie that babies were thrown on the floor from their incubators by the Iraqi Army in 1991.

The US has been the biggest globalist so far and now, that it is loosing at the competition game, as it usually prone to do, wants to change the "rules" of the game. However, this time, the technical genie is really well out of the bottle, and the US is overall a thoroughly uncompetitive place: housing costs, healthcare costs, education costs, transportation costs are waaay up there....

Kouros's avatar

The only ones ripping off the US for decades were and are the USian elites. With Trump 2.0, we are seeing the final stages of that ripping off.

James Schwartz's avatar

China is already intertwined within Canada’s politics and Carney has invested billions in China real estate. You should read before you comment. People like Sam Cooper have been all over the corruption regarding China in Canada which their MSM refuses to cover. Canada needs to get its house in order otherwise they will lose their sovereignty. You can believe that or not.

Richard Thomas's avatar

And Trumpty Dumpty will fail miserably.

Bubby's avatar

Yes bevause he's never succeeded in anything before. Brilliant analysis, Dick.

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Apr 3, 2025
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Bubby's avatar

He has never seared bankruptcy and had too many victories to count since entering politics.

Kouros's avatar

Name a single political achievment, other than being elected? Cutting taxes for the rich?

Bubby's avatar

I hope your Obamacare covers your TDS.

Good luck.

Kouros's avatar

Fortunately for me my medical insurance is not of US origin. Right now I am just stacking on popcorn and beer to see the shitshow being unleashed on the Americans. You do realize that the tariffs are a tax on the Americans paied by the Americans, so that more tax cuts will be bestowed on the rich, don't you?!

Memento Maxolga's avatar

No concideration of BRICS in this analysis.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

BRICS as an organization is irrelevant since it's impossible for everyone to reach a consensus on anything meaningful, only its individual members and at times their bilateral cooperation matters, everything else about BRICS is literal propaganda:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/did-the-latest-brics-summit-achieve

Anne-Lise H's avatar

Trump is matching the tariff rate on each country. There already isn’t free trade. For China, how many American cars do you see there besides Tesla?

Eckhard Umann's avatar

Fortunately, Biden has left him the USA completely debt-free. If it were otherwise - who would he have to pay the interest to... In other words, who could impose their will on him...

Julian Hudson's avatar

I don't buy the ideal that Ttump has a plan. And why don't I? The reason is that the inflammatory nature of his words and his scattered thoughts reflect an incoherent thought processs. And an inability to organize your thoughts will be reflected in your speech pattern.

A man who calls Zelensky a dictator one week then the following week is asked, does he still thinks Zelensky is a dictator, and responds, " did I say that, I don't think I said that" has some difficulty with the higher executive functions such as planning.

Trump listens to what he hears from the last person who whispers in his ears.

Another case against him forming any plans is his habit of resorting to threats and violence when he doesn't get what he wants. Only inarticulate people do this. An inability to speak in long sentences and make your case through rational arguments doesn't indicate a high degree of intelligence and we know he has no emotional control.

He's the complete opposite of Putin. Putin is rational, is able to see the possible future negative consequences of present actions and never is vindictive when he speaks. He also doesn't deny others their freedoms.

Kurvingrad's avatar

T is not a politician and is not bound by common political ways. It makes him more predictable because the drive comes from desire of series of outcomes rather than a (hidden) agenda driving. If you think of him as a businessman running a business called US, he's not confusing as much or at all.

. "Another case against him forming any plans is his habit of resorting to threats and violence when he doesn't get what he wants. Only inarticulate people do this."

That condemns Biden, Obama, Clinton and Dubya individually by far more than T.

. "Putin is rational, is able to see the possible future negative consequences of present actions and never is vindictive when he speaks. "

That is because P is a leader and acts as one. US did not have a leader since JFK and even there it is debatable.