56 Comments
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Darras's avatar

Thank you, Andrew. This article is much closer to what I think.

The AMC, once again, was grossly mistaken about Iran's capabilities. But overall, this is a disaster for Israel and a humiliation for Trump more than for the US.

After 3 months of inept bombing, billions of dollars wasted (not for the MIC and oil cronies), illegal and unjustified, he barely manages to obtain conditions far inferior to what Obama had negotiated.

Iran's successful firmness underscores even more harshly Putin's pusillanimity (cowardice?).

Mediocrates's avatar

Iran doesn't have a nuclear bomb, doesn't want one and doesn't need one. They have the Strait of Hormuz and can use it, re-use it whenever necessary. The bomb will only detonate once and will bring universal mass casualties. The Strait of Hormuz can cause mass universal economic collapse, if necessary. Smart move!

Lynn's avatar

Oh, so you really think that Iran doesn't want a nuclear bomb? Think twice. What are they building underground.

Samuel Abraham's avatar

Well they are now building one and then good luck to you and your "messiah"

Kennewick Man's avatar

Considering that Iran was completely outclassed in resources and was unable to keep his navy and air force in the competition active, the simply survival of the nation can be considered a victory. Their strategy for handling the Hormuz issue was brave and outstanding.

Jojo's avatar

The Iranian Regime doesn't have a Navy or Air Force any longer! Some rowboats and a few motorboats doesn't constitute a Navy!

Suggest getting your future info from a non-Iranian media source. 🤣🤣🤣

Abdallah Ayad's avatar

Apparently it's enough of a Navy to have you begging to reopen Hormuz.

cpowell's avatar

Who cares?

You lost!

RdA's avatar

Yet another clueless commenter who cannot tell the difference between the Artesh and the IRGC...

RdA's avatar

1991 was decades ago, but your thinking stayed there.

Lynn's avatar

No wonder where they are located. (it certainly does help).

dany's avatar
Jun 16Edited

The outcome of the 12days war in 2025 demonstrated several key factors : excellence of Iranian missile framework, awful efficiency of USrael anti ballistic missiles defense, Usrael lack of weapons inventories and industrial capacities. So the launch of 2026 war demonstrated a lack of lessons learned by USrael.

Beyond Iranian mosaic system, the efficiency of the succession plan was outstanding.

Not sure Iran ever threatened to destroy Israël, not sure either that the 2026 attack destroyed Iranian air défense; rather USrael mostly sent long range missiles before Iran border, no ?

Mediocrates's avatar

I think Trump has finally realised that might is not always right. Iran has demonstrated a masterful diplomatic patience that outshines the devious and brutal nature of Netanyahu and so Trump realises now that Iran's word is more trustful and fruitful than Israel's.

LJones's avatar

Great summary... I would propose an addition and one minor embellishment.

Iran had an effective propaganda component in terms of a visible presence in western alt media AND perhaps with that school bombing on day 1. Few truly know the details of that incident, but everyone sympathizes with possible loss of a child, let alone more than a hundred. The fact that this happened on day 1 makes it mildly suspicious, but it was nonetheless very effective and had many Americans, including myself, shaking our heads and asking what we were doing there.

Re your point on reciprocal escalation, I think the importance of this is hard to over state. It reminds me of Mr Putin's approach in Ukraine. Had Iran inflicted devastation on Israel vs being content to slowly deplete missile defenses, the Israeli's may well have felt entitled to use its nuclear forces. Additionally, if Iran had recklessly destroyed energy infrastructure throughout the ME they could've inflicted great pain at the real risk of being attacked with nuclear weapons. They walked a knife's edge adeptly in prosecuting this war.

Jojo's avatar

Why don't you wait until you see the actual text of what has been agreed upon before calling winners and losers?

But regardless, I can take a stab at this also. If Iran was the winner, why are they begging for $300 billion to rebuild what was destroyed? Why are they begging to have sanctions removed? Why is there economy in the pits and their people suffering?

Doesn't sound like winning to me!

Andrew Korybko's avatar

You *really* thought that Iran was going to survive and not turn into Iraq, Libya, and Syria? 🤨

You, “JoJo”, who consistently expresses borderline neocon views under my posts?

I’m not buying it, I think you’re coping because you expected an incontestable US victory.

Lynn's avatar

I like Jojo's comment. You apparently didn't want US to succeed at all. Why do they want $300 Billion? To build nuclear weapons. They certainly aren't going to help

the Iranian people.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

What are you talking about!? None of this is about my personal views, which I only rarely share in my work and even in the comments, it's about my analysis of the situation. Did you also not read what I wrote yesterday about how the US actually advanced some pretty significant goals?

https://korybko.substack.com/p/who-won-the-third-gulf-war

To imply that I'm some anti-American hater when rabid anti-Americanism of the bigoted type -- not political anti-Americanism against the US Government but actual hatred of Americans simply for being Americans -- is common about the online "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" that I left and now regularly criticize is crazy.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Also, for as much as I sometimes sympathize with certain foreign populations, I no longer care all that much about most people other than my compatriots (Americans and Poles) and of course Russians with whom I live, both in general and especially those in my city and particularly my neighborhood.

To your point, however, billions of dollars' worth of reconstruction -- IF PROPERLY SUPERVISED, CONTROLLED, AND IMPLEMENTED!!! -- could indeed help the Iranian people improve their sanctions-beleaguered living conditions if paired with phased sanctions relief. Denying this is dishonest.

Lynn's avatar

Has Iran done much for their people? I have heard not much. They hang people.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I genuinely don't care all that much to be brutally honest. I don't like injustices being committed against anyone, but I'm also not a bleeding heart liberal who devotes their life towards every foreign cause.

Sure, there are still some foreign causes that I passionately support, but normal people pick and choose. They don't devote their lives towards every single cause that they come across.

It's your personal choice to feel passionately about Iranians due to believing that the majority are oppressed. I don't care what your opinion is, to be frank, but mine isn't going to change because of yours.

Samuel Abraham's avatar

They hang people - how many Iranians were sacrificing one year olds to that goat head deity in Epsteins dungeon and how many were found in his contact list - doing the primitive bushmans rituals with children with him? What is the basis of your moral grandstanding?

Lynn's avatar

Now you are talking.

User was indefinitely suspended for this comment. Show
Andrew Korybko's avatar

"JoJo" was finally banned for insulting me with the innuendo that I of all people, who encourages contrarian comments (albeit respectfully expressed!), am looking for an "echo chamber". He knows better but was triggered and wanted to insult me.

He was a sophisticated troll, I'll give him that: he always straddled the line between what's acceptable here and what isn't, recalling that my only main rule is no personal attacks against me, but that also includes insulting innuendo or gaslighting.

I kept him around for as long as I did partly to show the passive audience that I do indeed tolerate different views, in fact, as written above, I encourage them, but they must be respectfully expressed. Gaslighting about what I wrote, which he did elsewhere, is unacceptable.

Darras's avatar

I admit I was impressed by your patience with this clearly professional troll (bot?).

Personally, I would have kicked him out long ago.

Well done.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Thanks, I genuinely thought -- self-admittedly naive as I remain! -- that he'd reform, behave better, and contribute to more interesting discussions but I was wrong yet again.

Trolls like him have become increasingly sophisticated too where they rarely drop in just to insult me but instead bide their time, "boiling the frog", and then they move to gaslighting and guilt-tripping.

Once it reaches that stage, I always end up blocking them. I don't think that a single troll has ever reformed after I warned them to change their ways after they reached that point.

I've psychoanalyzed hundreds of them in the four years since "NAFO" was founded (I've always been interested in psychology and sociology and at one time briefly considered pursuing it as a career).

They're all triggered by me flexing my freedom of speech by publishing my analyses, the content of which upsets them to no end, so they then all try to coerce me into self-censoring or changing my views through trolling.

Up till relatively recently, it was crude attacks, also designed in part to toxify discussions (I don't care about holding them on X and my Facebook is restricted to friends and friends of friends since I have family there).

Once I began implementing a zero-tolerance policy towards such attacks, they then evolved to passively-aggressive contrarian takes that still fell short of personal attacks or gaslighting.

These people are obsessed with me and I say that without exaggeration: look at "JoJo", he spent several months doing this only to finally lose his cool and expose his intentions beyond any doubt.

I've had trolls who revealed on X that they've been seething in silence for years till they finally mustered up the courage to troll me upon them referencing analyses I wrote in 2017-2018 that made them hate me.

Less than a week ago, another one referenced a tweet from January 2022, so they've been seething in silence for four and a half years almost. These freaks have been around since early 2014 shortly after I first started.

A group of anonymous Facebook profiles purporting to be Russians messaged a bunch of group admins at the time alleging that I'm an "American spy in Moscow" and imploring them to ban me.

One of my friends was an admin and shared the screenshots with me. It was crazy how unhinged they were, but even more surprising was how many Russia-related groups immediately banned me just because of that.

It was then when I realized that all isn't well in the "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" community since many people are predisposed to believing kooky conspiracy theories without literally any evidence whatsoever at all.

Just tell them that someone is a "spy" and they'll treat them accordingly because they trust that person, even if they're an anonymous account. It's a community-wide psychopathology that's only worsened with time.

It's still utterly fascinating to me and I do kinda enjoy it in a way since I know that thousands upon thousands of real-life people have been enraged by my work without me even intending to upset them.

Knowing that I command such power over so many people, including to make them obsess over me for months in "JoJo's" case or almost a decade in those South Asian trolls' who I referenced is such an ego trip!

These people either wake up and regularly decide to continue their long-term sophisticated trolling mission in a doomed-to-fail bid to get me to change my views or think about me for years before trolling me.

I knew before I started this career that people were crazy, but I didn't realize that it extended to international politics. What I've learned about online communities since then is just so fascinating.

I thought about maybe publishing an online book about it but it would take so much time to do, I never catalogued the examples (because I'm not a psychopath like them! lol), and it would be very difficult to organize.

Suffice to say, it nonetheless provides me with deep satisfaction both to trigger so many countless random people across the world but also to obtain such deep insight into their psyche.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

My late mom, with the deepest of love and respect to her, was an alcoholic (my dad too but she was much worse and it's why I lived with her parents from 4-14 who raised me as their own) and that thus exposed me from an early age to how crazy people can be.

I was therefore always fascinated with trying to understand her mindset even when she was at her worst, attempting to discern patterns and even "logic in illogicity". Most of her friends were also alcoholics, and ultimately, I came to understand her and them pretty well.

Many of my high-school friends became addicts too, most of whom are now either dead, in jail, or irredeemably addicted to drugs and with whom I thus understandably no longer associate.

With either my mom or them (per court order as regards the latter due to their juvenile court cases), I went to Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) many, many times and vociferously consumed their recovery content.

It's all psychological, sociological, and even spiritual to a large extent, and the interplay between these teachings and how they're put into practice (or in many cases not) by individual addicts utterly fascinated me.

It was through these formative experiences that I came to deeply appreciate psychology and sociology, particularly of "deviance" and with a focus on addiction, but which is relevant for deranged trolling.

As regards addicts, I really did consider at one time becoming a counselor, but my recreational drinking would have made me feel guilty about that so I ultimately chose not to.

Plus, I believed that I could help a greater number of people on more significant issues than just their personal and family lives in International Relations, which is why I chose this route instead.

Why I'm sharing this is because my trolls almost always with few exceptions project that my engagement with them is due to me being the one that's triggered when it's actually the opposite.

I'm fascinated by their behavior and study them as a specialist does, learning more and more about them, especially the NRPRs among them. I don't care what they say about me, but they never understand that.

"JoJo" was a really interesting case because he wasn't a NRPR but more like a neocon, yet he was so upset about my views that didn't even concern anything of serious interest to him that he went on his months-long crusade.

I must therefore have one day really deeply offended him with something that I wrote which he read from a friend who shared my work somewhere to really set him off. I assume it pertained to Trump 2.0.

A lot of my (nowadays rare) "daydreaming" relates to trying to understand my trolls as much as is realistically possible (except for those that are really seriously psychologically ill).

It's one of my hobbies alongside going to fast food places and watching how they prepare the food since I used to work in the industry as a teen till my early 20s (apart from other jobs too).

I don't care what people think about my interests, it's my life and my enjoyment, and trolling back my trolls on X or studying them in a more serious way here fills me with so much deep satisfaction.

They're psychological puzzles that never bore me and provide me with so much happiness on a regular basis. They're all different, yet all the same nevertheless, and it's these contrasts and comparisons that fascinate me too.

The evolution of trolling, including particular narratives on emerging news items, is also fascinating. I've gotten to the point where I understand them so well and at times admittedly and very proudly too may I say exploit this to torment them on social media if they're exceptionally nasty individuals.

It's such an ego trip too since there's a zero percent chance that they'll ever get me to self-censor or change my views, yet there's always a non-zero chance that I'll break that person, like deeply break them, and I've proudly, unashamedly done so on quite a few occasions.

I do this as a public service since I hate bullies and I believe that they deserve the worst. Few are as strong as me nor as patient and passionate with engaging them. Many folks like us have had their days ruined or been thrown into deep depression over their trolling.

So I do this for us, folks who are well-intentioned and just want to casually chat about what they're interested in, and that's why I consider it to be a public service and am fiercely proud of having put my lifelong psychological and sociological skills and unofficial research to use teaching them lessons that they'll never forget.

And oh is it one hell of an ego trip when I finally block a troll on X after breaking them and taunting them that they can't control themselves and will certainly create a new account to troll me again and then they do it!!! What ecstasy to know that I've established direct control over psyche and could manipulate them however I'd like!

I've ruined so many troll's days, and it's even funnier when they come back under an alternative account some time after they're blocked and reference how they were blocked too! It meant that I broke them so badly that their obsession became pathological and actually harmful to their psychological health.

Extrapolating further, I can confidently conclude that these people were in very painful psychological agony for a while, all while I myself honestly forgot that 99.9% of them existed (those who I remember are usually vague interactions that provided rare amusement).

I can only do this too since I live in Russia, I'd never do this under my real name in the US or Europe because they'd literally try to kill me (and many have threatened to do so, sometimes explicitly, which got X to ban them after I reported them, and boy oh boy, imagine the PURE RAGE of someone who lost an account they had for years!!! LOL!).

That's another reason why I feel that I have a moral obligation of sorts to put my special psychological and sociological skills to use studying and then more effectively trolling back my trolls (on X, not here) since no one else like us lives in Russia where they're safe from physical threats.

These trolls are mostly European and American, sometimes South Asian and other Global South identities, but they don't live in Russia and aren't going to travel here to kill me (nor could they find me if they did). So I can safely destroy these people, like literally destroy their lives, and I truly hope that I've ruined at least several by now.

They all without exception deserve it for being toxic trolls who attack people like us without provocation and even sometimes go as far like "JoJo" did with playing mind games. I genuinely wish the absolute worst for them in this world, which I do my best to help bring about my tormenting those who deserve it (I didn't torment "JoJo" as I only do this on X), and especially in the next, God willing.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

For anyone interested, here's where I responded to his gaslighting post from earlier:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/israel-didnt-achieve-a-single-one/comment/277205005

Abdallah Ayad's avatar

If the USA were the winner, why are they begging to open Hormuz ?

Has the "Regime" fallen ?

Were nuclear capabilities disabled ?

Were the ballistic missiles wiped out ?

Have some shame. Take your loss, covered in disgrace.

Joseph Stein's avatar

Who said they are begging? The $300 billion is their money which was stolen by the West. If they lost why is the powerful U.S. even bothering to negotiate, and apparently removing its blockade before any of its objectives were met? U.S. military budget…..$1,000,000,000,000. Iran’s budget $10,000,000,000.

Darras's avatar

Hey Jojo, look at UK and USSR in 1945 before saying craps.

Every country can't act like USA and come fighting like a vulture only with a very weaker enemy or another one already almost destroyed by others.

Feral Finster's avatar

JoJo is a troll who will say whatever tomfool thing he thinks will support his hero.

Mediocrates's avatar

Why not request of what was stolen and the replacement of what was illegally destroyed by unwarranted American/Israeli aggression? Who was bombing whose backyard when they were 1000's of km from their own backyard? Iran did not start the aggression!

Goodman Devil's avatar

They're not "begging " for their own money that has been illegally denied them for so long. They are demanding it be given back to them if we want to pass through the strait again and we, America with the greatest military (by budget anyway) fell on our knees in humiliation and defeat.

Cope harder.

Seldom's avatar

Excellent article Andrew as always. Instead of thinking about this from a winner/ looser perspective, I would also suggest looking at it from a stronger/ weaker perspective. Iran has definitely emerged stronger geopolitically from this conflict. It has taken a huge battering that has caused significant destruction but geopolitically, it is at the strongest it has ever been. It has shown it is an important regional player not to be messed with, it did not fold or capitulate, and it insisted on not rushing into a bad deal and on waiting until it got what it wanted. I think this will have long-term geopolitical ramifications with Gulf countries slowly realizing it is not wise to keep all their eggs in one basket and that they would benefit from having better relationships with Iran too.

Another way to analyze the situation is to ask ourselves: Is the US in a better position with Iran today than it would have been had Trump not cancelled the Obama deal on his first term? The answer is a strong No. Think about how much political and economic leverage the US would have had Trump not withdrawn from the Obama deal, and had relationships continued to improve between the US and Iran since then. The US is very good at infiltrating and capturing nations through softer political and economic means. The continued opening-up of Iran since the deal would have allowed the US to do that without resorting to military means, and Vietnam is a very good example of this.

The Freeze-Frame Revolution's avatar

I think, as an analyst, you should dig a bit deeper to fully understand Iranian success and resilience: https://squirrelbrain77.substack.com/p/iran

Renee' Norton's avatar

no wartime revolts... they already killed the 40,000 dissenters

Joseph Stein's avatar

And the big unknown is what part, if any, has Russia and China played in all of this. Remember that just after the Iranian foreign minister met with Putin in Moscow, Put called Trump and they had a ninety minute conversation. I doubt they were discussing the weather.

Randy Chitwood's avatar

Badly battered? Ha! Pull the other one 🤡

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Oh gosh, we’re supposed to believe that Israel’s extremely strict wartime censorship of all Iranian bombings was to prevent global awareness of how untouched Israel was by the war?

And all those US bases weren’t hit either? Come on, Randy, you don’t seem like a low-IQ guy. You can respond in a more sophisticated way, such trolling is below you…or is it?

Paolo Giusti's avatar

I still think the USA did not want a regime change: if the iranian Doves succesfullt purge the hawkish IRGC, it will be a Venezuela 2.0. I think Trump Maduro'ed the Revolution.

Feral Finster's avatar

The goal ever always only was to turn Iran into a failed state, much like what was done to Iraq, Libya and Syria.

Paolo Giusti's avatar

Ok, you are entitled your opinion.