Cuba might be coerced into subordinating itself to the US, the cascading consequences of other major BRI partners being intimidated into following Venezuela’s example could compel changes to China’s development strategy, and some of Venezuela’s Soviet/Russian arsenal might be sent to Ukraine.
My guess is that Venezuela was not supplied with top of the line military equipment. So compared to all that that was already captured in Ukraine - as it usually happens during the war, even if one side is losing, the value of Russian trade secrets on military equipment in Venezuela is limited.
You don't have to guess. Any transfer not disclosed by Russia are known by US and Britian, and disclosed.
Russia supplied Venezuela with some of the most capable air-defense systems available on the EXPORT market (S-300VM, Buk-M2E, Pantsir-S1, and MANPADS), making Venezuela one of the most heavily defended airspaces in Latin America. By global standards not “top of the line” compared with the latest Russian or Western integrated air-defense networks. No S-400 or S-500 class.
they had the numbers, if not the quality; us didn't send their best weapons to venezuela either, so they could have defended themselves well. and in a war, especially a heavily mechanized one, the burden is carried by the second line equipment. but russia also knew who maduro is, so who's to blame? and at least partly, the answer lies in the russian government itself, concretely in the subversive part of it.
Am sceptical of that claim for the US side. US needed to win - so it sent the best of the best. This is what you do if you need to win (and not get embarassed). It's the same in Ukraine - wherever Ukraine tries to win whatever small territory like now at Kupyansk, it sends the best of the best.
What is amazing, it's to see and ear Russians and pro-Russians non Russians speaking about that like Russia was not concerned.
They say, learnedly and stupidly( like, for example, Andrei Martianov): " it's not the problem of Russia. Russia have not the duty of saving everybody. Russia only acts for its interests".
Dumb fools.
Since Kazan, I say that Russia( and not only) is in bad shape. Since the betray of Iran toward Hamas and Hezbollah, I claim that Russia, unable to opposite this move meaned it was in very bad shape. And since the fall of Syria, I claim that it will launch a stampede in Russia's "eternal friends"( it's proved now that Russia has no allies except North Korea). Azerbaijan, Armenia, Venezuela. Iran to come swinging. A disaster.
If Andrew is right, Russia and China will only have the choice between total surrender or the Pearl Harbour moment.
For my English, it's absolutely true. For my understanding of geopolitics, it remains to demonstrate that. And in the same time you should give us your own vision.
russia can still be a loyal partner for china, maybe one of the few in this moment when xi filled the telephone agenda with its subversive partners, if china is a loyal partner for russia. hiccups, misunderstandings and presumptions like during the invasion of venezuela appeared more because of china then russia, who at times supported both ukraine and russia, way before the nato aid became consistent, and since then jumped at any opportunity offered by usa; when you work on too many channels and in too many logics, you lose account on them. as for other international actors (europe included), they shouldn't be afraid of stability on russia-china side either, since this is one of the bases on which general stability can be built, which benefits europe hugely. the weakened europe, divided by sectarian interests on whose losing end are always the better countries, will suffer any global shock, while being too weak to exploit any global chaos, so i would recommend rebuilding and gaining relevance before riding any bull. the european blessing is prosperity; her curse is having to work for it. ignore those whom you know as negative already, that are in for the show, and look for those who are honestly in this game, and who have much to lose.
i truly hope the new venezuelan government, which is 99,9% of the old venezuelan government will not betray russia by suppling ukraine, because this way they betray any other third world country which would need support against greedy hegemons. and they don't want either to be on the wrong side of a betrayed russia, because next time russia would arrive in venezuela on american wings, and venezuela won't like it - europe herself saw the bullet near her ear and another one can be shot anytime. it would be nicer to give up some of them to colombia instead, who acted as a loyal friend and whose support sweetened much the deal (you see what happens to the isolated countries) and who is in a conundrum - she removed the native drug trafficking guerrilla and now has to confront herself with a us-supported one on one hand and with a cuban (or rather the subversive, trotskyite-guevarist wing of the socialist movement) supported one on another; fight any of them and the other will grow without limits. fight none and both will grow. maybe mexico too.
Thanks for the strong analysis Andrew. Few in America understand that Cuba is truly at the end of the rope after endless decades of sanctions and economic deprivation. During Trump 1 it seemed Cuba received some sort of shady offer, if they give up communism and turn their island into a sort of gambling and prostitution paradise for American tourists and their CIA bodyguards they will be loved but the Cubans were unable to submit. Cuba already has a large minority group in the southeast USA. AI says 2.4 million people but I am still unable to trust AI demographics since I figured out that contrary to popular belief White population in the US is well below 50% of the total. Stats in America remind me of the Soviet commie-land 1980s style. They were so self-assured they allowed in a history prof from Stanford, Professor Robert Conquest to examine the facts behind the Ukraine Holodomor of the early 1930s. And they were handed the ultimate lesson in historical research. Poor commies doctored all stats, so they thought, they just forget about first graders’ stats going to school six years after 1932-1933. There were close to zero in some areas. (See the small format book: The Harvest of Sorrow.)
My point is: Exposing a smaller nation to a major historical trauma has its consequences and the US just might make the same mistake by pushing the Cuban population too far. They did it to Vietnam and North Korea and there is little love left there. Their only luck is they did not nuke China for the North Korean intervention in the early 1950s.
the true inhibition against invading cuba should be that, like romania, cuba is much more dangerous as a friend than as an enemy. entire neighborhoods moved from cuba en masse, they are neighbors in us as they were home; now imagine doubling or tripling these numbers. they would better raise the embargo, especially the trade one, since poverty results in depravity, so they raise their own enemies. suffering doesn't make you better, it only crushes the best and perverts the others.
China entered the war in the last months of 1950. Stalin was very much guarded, offering covert help to North Korea. Soviet fighter planes were sent to help but the pilots were not allowed to speak Russian on their radios. Soviet nukes were at a very early budding stage, not enough to fight a war while America had enough to deal with the Chinese and demolish the largest Soviet cities in eastern Europe as well. Starting around 1950 US nuke production started to grow exponentially. They actually had the overwhelming advantage in nukes for most of the 1950s.
With respect to nuke imbalance - yes. But what counts is simply that Soviets might have retaliated against two or 3 cities - that was enough as deterrence.
Anyway, it looks as if the sea lanes conflict between US and Russia over Russia-flagged oil tankers is currently heating up.
The US has not won a war in the past 75 years. So it keeps poking wherever it can without losing again. Time for America to "cool" it and act like a normal nation like it usded . to be.
When they required from England to oust the French?
When they ousted English in using French?
When they promote a independent Mexico for better fuck it 25 years after?
When they crushed Confederation at 7 against one for submitting it to they interests of their industry?
When they abolished slavery but refused the citizenship to former slaves?
When they betrayed each treaty with Indians and exterminated them?
When they used their Marines Corp( read general Butler) as mafia killers to submit all south and central America to the interest of companies like Union Fruits, Texaco or S.O.?
When they tears imperial spanish carrion with a false flag?
When they killed one million Philippians?
When they intervened military 254 times in south and central America?
When they killed one million civils North Koreans? 3-4 millions Vietnamese?
When they launched all the bloody dictators in south America after WW2?
And I can say exactly the same about France, UK, every European countries, even Russia and Japan.
My guess is that Venezuela was not supplied with top of the line military equipment. So compared to all that that was already captured in Ukraine - as it usually happens during the war, even if one side is losing, the value of Russian trade secrets on military equipment in Venezuela is limited.
You don't have to guess. Any transfer not disclosed by Russia are known by US and Britian, and disclosed.
Russia supplied Venezuela with some of the most capable air-defense systems available on the EXPORT market (S-300VM, Buk-M2E, Pantsir-S1, and MANPADS), making Venezuela one of the most heavily defended airspaces in Latin America. By global standards not “top of the line” compared with the latest Russian or Western integrated air-defense networks. No S-400 or S-500 class.
they had the numbers, if not the quality; us didn't send their best weapons to venezuela either, so they could have defended themselves well. and in a war, especially a heavily mechanized one, the burden is carried by the second line equipment. but russia also knew who maduro is, so who's to blame? and at least partly, the answer lies in the russian government itself, concretely in the subversive part of it.
Am sceptical of that claim for the US side. US needed to win - so it sent the best of the best. This is what you do if you need to win (and not get embarassed). It's the same in Ukraine - wherever Ukraine tries to win whatever small territory like now at Kupyansk, it sends the best of the best.
Whatever helps you feel better ...
The US has been losing in Cuba for 70 years,
Cuba is another propped up poster country for badly run communism.
Hahahaha
Life expectancy:
Cuba - 80
USA - 76
Imagine what not “badly run communism” would do?
" Soviet/Russian arsenal to discover all of its equipment’s secrets, "
They already did this to Turkey's s-400 guaranteed.
It's si true.
What is amazing, it's to see and ear Russians and pro-Russians non Russians speaking about that like Russia was not concerned.
They say, learnedly and stupidly( like, for example, Andrei Martianov): " it's not the problem of Russia. Russia have not the duty of saving everybody. Russia only acts for its interests".
Dumb fools.
Since Kazan, I say that Russia( and not only) is in bad shape. Since the betray of Iran toward Hamas and Hezbollah, I claim that Russia, unable to opposite this move meaned it was in very bad shape. And since the fall of Syria, I claim that it will launch a stampede in Russia's "eternal friends"( it's proved now that Russia has no allies except North Korea). Azerbaijan, Armenia, Venezuela. Iran to come swinging. A disaster.
If Andrew is right, Russia and China will only have the choice between total surrender or the Pearl Harbour moment.
Your understanding of (geo)politics is as bad as your English.
Trollic post.
For my English, it's absolutely true. For my understanding of geopolitics, it remains to demonstrate that. And in the same time you should give us your own vision.
russia can still be a loyal partner for china, maybe one of the few in this moment when xi filled the telephone agenda with its subversive partners, if china is a loyal partner for russia. hiccups, misunderstandings and presumptions like during the invasion of venezuela appeared more because of china then russia, who at times supported both ukraine and russia, way before the nato aid became consistent, and since then jumped at any opportunity offered by usa; when you work on too many channels and in too many logics, you lose account on them. as for other international actors (europe included), they shouldn't be afraid of stability on russia-china side either, since this is one of the bases on which general stability can be built, which benefits europe hugely. the weakened europe, divided by sectarian interests on whose losing end are always the better countries, will suffer any global shock, while being too weak to exploit any global chaos, so i would recommend rebuilding and gaining relevance before riding any bull. the european blessing is prosperity; her curse is having to work for it. ignore those whom you know as negative already, that are in for the show, and look for those who are honestly in this game, and who have much to lose.
I like how melodramatic a lot of you Pro-Russian folks are. 😂
i truly hope the new venezuelan government, which is 99,9% of the old venezuelan government will not betray russia by suppling ukraine, because this way they betray any other third world country which would need support against greedy hegemons. and they don't want either to be on the wrong side of a betrayed russia, because next time russia would arrive in venezuela on american wings, and venezuela won't like it - europe herself saw the bullet near her ear and another one can be shot anytime. it would be nicer to give up some of them to colombia instead, who acted as a loyal friend and whose support sweetened much the deal (you see what happens to the isolated countries) and who is in a conundrum - she removed the native drug trafficking guerrilla and now has to confront herself with a us-supported one on one hand and with a cuban (or rather the subversive, trotskyite-guevarist wing of the socialist movement) supported one on another; fight any of them and the other will grow without limits. fight none and both will grow. maybe mexico too.
Ho, ho, ho...
What an eternal friend.
What a precious and reliable ally.
USA seized a Russian tanker.
Absolutely not a word on this topic on Global Times, for remind, it's the official media of chinese PCC.
"discover all of its equipment’s secrets, and some of these arms might even ultimately be sent to Ukraine too."
I have no doubt this will be the case.
Thanks for the strong analysis Andrew. Few in America understand that Cuba is truly at the end of the rope after endless decades of sanctions and economic deprivation. During Trump 1 it seemed Cuba received some sort of shady offer, if they give up communism and turn their island into a sort of gambling and prostitution paradise for American tourists and their CIA bodyguards they will be loved but the Cubans were unable to submit. Cuba already has a large minority group in the southeast USA. AI says 2.4 million people but I am still unable to trust AI demographics since I figured out that contrary to popular belief White population in the US is well below 50% of the total. Stats in America remind me of the Soviet commie-land 1980s style. They were so self-assured they allowed in a history prof from Stanford, Professor Robert Conquest to examine the facts behind the Ukraine Holodomor of the early 1930s. And they were handed the ultimate lesson in historical research. Poor commies doctored all stats, so they thought, they just forget about first graders’ stats going to school six years after 1932-1933. There were close to zero in some areas. (See the small format book: The Harvest of Sorrow.)
My point is: Exposing a smaller nation to a major historical trauma has its consequences and the US just might make the same mistake by pushing the Cuban population too far. They did it to Vietnam and North Korea and there is little love left there. Their only luck is they did not nuke China for the North Korean intervention in the early 1950s.
the true inhibition against invading cuba should be that, like romania, cuba is much more dangerous as a friend than as an enemy. entire neighborhoods moved from cuba en masse, they are neighbors in us as they were home; now imagine doubling or tripling these numbers. they would better raise the embargo, especially the trade one, since poverty results in depravity, so they raise their own enemies. suffering doesn't make you better, it only crushes the best and perverts the others.
can you find that book online or on some site?
Because in Sweden it is not possible to find
It is there on Amazon for $16, it is a small format book can be shipped easily in an envelope, just tell them to do that:
https://www.amazon.com/Harvest-Sorrow-Soviet-Collectivization-Terror-Famine/dp/0195051807/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2XKBJ8MXK6RX&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.MmyXiK9xi-sAdKTtcBLRX--wZChx7BMS0Ny-0ljPJn4_LcQs2WwfSX3iLRy2RNcO3laFR8X6RzT-qegMNVECohx2qubbq8vdmbcY0ALFb7FA7EsOG67wokp3XDr-H45r4LjNWD-YX1SBq00G7DZ0473yT4tUAiLvhECziUpCmIpKU65gTH-lJ_zDH4dOHPyXYmPdQIWKbXlaaoQgCctsMNfSy1WORqWNKw0z0bfomTQ.4BCerS5A2G1_Pw7iABQqrbkblEfi0uyJmSiDw91AbPE&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+harvest+of+sorrow&qid=1767817851&sprefix=The+Harvest+of+Sorrow%2Caps%2C219&sr=8-1
thank you very much for taking the time to link.
I will do that.
They couldn't Nuke China because Stalin had access to Nukes 1949 latest. Besides, Soviet Union was at that time ahead on missile technology.
China entered the war in the last months of 1950. Stalin was very much guarded, offering covert help to North Korea. Soviet fighter planes were sent to help but the pilots were not allowed to speak Russian on their radios. Soviet nukes were at a very early budding stage, not enough to fight a war while America had enough to deal with the Chinese and demolish the largest Soviet cities in eastern Europe as well. Starting around 1950 US nuke production started to grow exponentially. They actually had the overwhelming advantage in nukes for most of the 1950s.
With respect to nuke imbalance - yes. But what counts is simply that Soviets might have retaliated against two or 3 cities - that was enough as deterrence.
Anyway, it looks as if the sea lanes conflict between US and Russia over Russia-flagged oil tankers is currently heating up.
The US has not won a war in the past 75 years. So it keeps poking wherever it can without losing again. Time for America to "cool" it and act like a normal nation like it usded . to be.
When?
When they required from England to oust the French?
When they ousted English in using French?
When they promote a independent Mexico for better fuck it 25 years after?
When they crushed Confederation at 7 against one for submitting it to they interests of their industry?
When they abolished slavery but refused the citizenship to former slaves?
When they betrayed each treaty with Indians and exterminated them?
When they used their Marines Corp( read general Butler) as mafia killers to submit all south and central America to the interest of companies like Union Fruits, Texaco or S.O.?
When they tears imperial spanish carrion with a false flag?
When they killed one million Philippians?
When they intervened military 254 times in south and central America?
When they killed one million civils North Koreans? 3-4 millions Vietnamese?
When they launched all the bloody dictators in south America after WW2?
And I can say exactly the same about France, UK, every European countries, even Russia and Japan.
There is no "normal" country.
It's even worth than that. Russia knew that.