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Sharon L Bonney's avatar

Excellent summary, with several points I had not previously appreciated. I do think one of the most important factors here is that Trump, like the US Democrats and old-school Republicans, as well as the Europeans, do not understand the reasons that Putin is fighting this war in the first place. They think it would be ticketyboo to surround Russia with NATO on all sides, and actually think that if Russia wins in Ukraine it would go on to attack NATO countries, in some misbegotten attempt to recreate the USSR and/or the Russian Empire. Which is ridiculous.

Feral Finster's avatar

None of them care why Russia is fighting the war, nor do they care whether Russia has legitimate grievances or not.

They care only for power.

Darras's avatar

No, sure, they don't understand.

They took advantage of stupid Gorbachev trust to betray him and destroy USSR but they don't understand.

They betray their commitment of not enlarge NATO and approach Russia frontiers but they don't understand.

They treated Russia like a whore during Elstine but they don't understand.

They promoted regime change hostile to Russia in Georgia, Armenia, Ukrain, they tried in Kazakhstan, Tadjikistan, Belarus but no, sure they don't understand

They betray the Kiev agreement in 2014 in launching a fachist coup with proxy Svoboda and Pravdy Sector, spending 5 billons dollars but they don't understand.

They encouraged Poroschenko to send the army against civil in est Ukrain but they don't understand.

They despised and ignored the russian ultimatum in four point of November 2021 but they don't understand.

Everybody serious knows that they wanted to trap Russia in a never ending war in Ukraine and if possible promote a regime change with harsh sanctions but they don't understand.

Hey Sir,

Do you think they are completely silly?

Or are you silly yourself?

Darras's avatar

One more time, I'm not a good english speaker and my words can be clumsy and more rude than what I think.

Feral Finster's avatar

No worries on my part.

Clay Suddath's avatar

Bottom Line: Logically, historically, universally, it is the WINNER that dictates the terms of SURRENDER to the LOSERS.

That is the fundamental reason why people risk involvement in any war.

You can frame the debate all you want, perfume the narrative & soak it in euphemisms, yet the inherent stench of policies driven by the illusions of grandeur of what is now a failed state (the USA) has become too fetid to dissimulate.

Recognizing defeat is Trump’s only effective exit strategy and he will refuse to do that.

The war will thus continue with Trump & NATO in an extremely vulnerable position while Russia continues to nibble away at what Lindsey Graham considers to be his $26 T stockpile of rare earths.

Meanwhile, where is Victoria Nuland? Basking in the sun, enjoying her triumph of democracy in Ukraine.

She really should be held accountable. Thing is, accountability went out of fashion in the US government about $37,000,000,000,000 ago.

Feral Finster's avatar

The war is not over. The europoodles will get the American intervention that they so crave.

Darras's avatar

With what? Material they have not? Fat and dumb soldiers ? Officers and planners used for 80 years to fight only against misérable guérilleros in sandals and old guns ....and lost against them?

Feral Finster's avatar

Stop kidding yourself. There is a reason that the europeans are so intent on American intervention, why this was ever always only the real plan.

Darras's avatar

Perhaps but I live in France and I can assure you that here and elsewhere in Europe it's very well understood that USA will not come. They want a weak Russia and a servile Europe.

In Europe, rulers are already the day after. You already have the two old camps: left you have Germany, north and central Europa. Right you have UK , France, South and eastern south Europa. Visegrad countries are weighting what camp they'll follow.

These two camps, like in the last centuries, have not the same strategic vision, the same economic agenda , and french officials are really furious to have been fooled by Germans .

In this mess, I don't see USA put a finger. They already took everything

Feral Finster's avatar

So you think Macron and Starmer and Rutte were flattering Trump and encouraging him to escalate were just for funsies?

No. The only plan, the real plan, ever always only was for the Americans to ride to europe's rescue once again. This is why the europeans are screaming for more war, because they are convinced that the Americans will not leave them hanging out to dry.

Which in turn raises the question of what do you know about American military capabilities that the people in La Defense and the Champs d'Elyssees do not?

Darras's avatar

You write: " the Americans to ride to europe's rescue once again."

😂😂😂 Excuse me, it's nervous.

Could you tell me , outside of Hollywood fantasies, when America ride to Europe's rescue?

The WW1? WW2? the so-called Cold War?

If you really think that USA intervened in Europe in the pur and noble purpose of rescue it, so I can do nothing for you.

Just for fun, read the Ike adress to american soldiers the Eve of D-Day in June 44.

However, if Europeans planned to involve USA in this war( that USA sparked and especially Trump 1) I think they have no more hope for it.

Now this war is only the way to deal with who will rule Europa when US will go home after have taken it all.

Parti's avatar

The Russian demands have been public since the beginning of the war and the US somehow wonders why Russia isn't agreeing to a ceasefire. How delusional/arrogant can someone be?

Well, if the conflict escalated Putin will have to ask himself whether going so soft on Ukraine was indeed the right way.

Paul Jurczak's avatar

Trump was also manipulated into mission creep by his scatterbrained approach to diplomacy. He still confuses the White House with the boardroom of The Apprentice.

Seldom's avatar

Trump is being manipulated into escalating the conflict with Ukraine. Trump did not know about the Pentagon's decision to halt arms shipments to Ukraine. Trump was manipulated by Bibbi to bomb Iran in the midst of negotiations yet was still negotiating in good faith with the Iranians (!!). Trump did not know about Ukraine's spider web operation.

It's just tiring trying to justify every erratic decision/ behaviour by Trump. Even if we assume that all of the above is true, then this speaks of a president who is dumb, impulsive, dangerous and frankly a fool. Hard to trust anything he says anymore and to see how other world leaders can do so with his constant flip flopping and his chaotic thinking.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

What I've presented over the past month is a paradigm for understanding Trump's behavior. Anyone can disagree, ideally respectfully, but I don't like your claim that I'm "trying to justify" what he's doing. An explanation isn't an excuse or a justification.

I don't know who you are and frankly I don't care. Apart from my generous paid Substack subscribers, to whom I'm very grateful, I also do independent strategic consulting here in Moscow to make ends meet.

I'm also grateful to my clients here who respect my academic and professional credentials enough to remunerate me for the insight that I provide to them, which is sometimes detailed elaborations of my Substack analyses but not always.

If you don't appreciate the quality of my work and trust my intentions in sharing it here, then you don't have to read it. It's so tiresome skimming through all these trolls in my comments section all the time. They remind me of how hopeless most of Alt-Media is.

All that many of you want to hear is, first and foremost, whatever conforms with your own perceptions and then secondly for me and whoever else you follow to condemn whatever it is that you already condemn but in similar or even identical language.

You're not going to get that from me, ever. I aspire to analyze International Relations as accurately as I can, regularly recalibrating my analyses as required by new developments and insight, but nonetheless within the general paradigms that I've created over the years.

The analytical products that I share here at my Substack are therefore very different from most of whatever else you consume. They're think tank-quality analyses that are typically condensed to easily readable news briefs.

Again, if you don't appreciate it, then just leave. One of the most disappointing things to discover in my nearly 12-year-long career is that many in Alt-Media don't want analyses, they want disguised or even sometimes outright propaganda.

It's also equally disappointing to be trolled, albeit comparatively more "cleverly" and "politely", by Alt-Media folks who I hitherto naively assumed were broadly aligned with my worldview and under the same so-called "big tent".

Instead, I discovered that most Alt-Media folks are agenda-driven "activists" who'll casually "cancel" other Alt-Media folks just like "NAFO" regularly "cancels" their own ilk who even just mildly deviate from the "politically correct" narrative. I'm sick of both cults.

Seldom's avatar

Andrew, I respect your work and have been following it for years. I wouldn't have bothered creating an account and posting a comment if I didn't. I am sorry if my comment felt like I was attacking you personally. I wasn't responding exclusively to your post but more so to the general line of thinking advanced by many (including you occasionally) that Trump is being manipulated and has no idea what is happening in his own administration. Have a good day.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

It's fine, thanks for clarifying, no worries. I've been exposed to "friendly fire" on a regular basis, at least several times a week here and especially on X, ever since I mass blocked "NAFO" in early 2023 after epically trolling them.

To briefly explain, I got many of their top trolls and Ukrainian officials to block me, after which I shared the screenshots. They then justified it instead of their usual claim that "only cowards block", after which I blocked them all for laughs!

Anyhow, it was shortly after "NAFO' stopped appearing under my social media posts that I started getting accused of being a "Zionist", "spy", etc. by Alt-Media trolls, which avalanched after October 7th and other key events since then.

Over and over, including from some pretty huge accounts (one now has over half a million followers on X!), I'm defamed, harassed, and insulted, sometimes in very crude ways, and I truly was an eye-opening experience.

It happened a lot before from 2017-2022 when I started my years-long analytical series on Russian-Israeli relations in various contexts (bilateral, within Syria, and through trilaterals like with Iran, the US, etc.), but it was never as intense.

Those Alt-Media trolls backed off after "NAFO' viciously obsessed over me from early 2022-early 2023 when I mass blocked them, likely realizing how much it discredits them to join in the digital lynch mob while claiming to support Russia.

But then once they came back with gusto after "NAFO" was cleansed from my comments section, it showed me how much genuine hatred there is from the "same side" for me, my work, and the insight that I share.

It still overwhelms me a little bit every time I experience it and think about it because I accepted that the "other side" would always hate me but I never expected that "my own" would hate me in what are sometimes even worse ways.

From anonymous trolls to some of the largest accounts and everything in between, I get it from all angles of "my side" all the time, and I'm just sick of it. I concluded that Alt-Media as a whole is rotten but it's also beyond reform.

Anyhow, I really do appreciate your clarification, it means a lot. I hope that you're also not offended by my response after I further clarified it here. Imagine being exposed to this almost daily from your "own side" for 2,5 years.

And remember, unlike anyone from "my side", I've been producing original multipolar analyses daily since the SMO began, so for 1,230+ consecutive days, never taking a full 24 hours off, not even for personal reasons.

These include moving apartments, the death of my grandfather who raised me as the son he never had, my wedding, the birth of my son, and occasional illnesses, one of which was the worst I ever had last winter.

And all the while, many Alt-Media folks -- some of whom are considered "reputable", including after being invited to Russia for conferences, not to mention platformed by its publicly financed media -- imply that I'm a "spy".

I've been more disappointed by that than any of the "politically incorrect" conclusions that I've arrived at about various countries that I support. I can understand "immorality" in politics, but I don't forgive it in interpersonal ties.

It admittedly affects me to a degree, how could it not affect any person, but I still carry on, albeit with a heavy weight on my heart after realizing how naive I was early on imagining that everyone on "my side" had noble intentions.

What I learned is that the "enemy within" is worse than the enemy outside. My sincere advice to anyone who enters this industry is to steel yourself for betrayal, whether it's "allies" stabbing you in the back or spitting in your face.

Also, don't count on your "peers" to defend you in public; many of them have their own ties, whether business or friendship, with those who'll betray you in the above way, or they're too cowardly afraid of being "cancelled" themselves.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I never said that I expected him to do so. Unmask yourself, sharing your real name and face along with a means of verifying both, and let's do a $1k children's charity challenge.

You have to remove your anonymity so that you can be socially accountable when you lose, and yes, you will lose, since you're defaming me and I never, ever said what you're claiming.

So, upon unmasking yourself, if you can show within 24 hours (~10am MSK on Saturday) that I said that, I'll donate $1k to a children's charity of your choice. If you can't, then you donate $1k to one of my choice.

If you don't accept, or if your next comment is trolling and not unmasking yourself by sharing ways to verify your identity, then you're blocked. The same goes for any other Alt-Media troll who lies about what I wrote/said.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

What Alt-Media trolls have taken to doing ever since I mass blocked "NAFO' in early 2023 is lying about what I wrote/said.

They do this because my insight challenges, and in some cases outright discredits, their cultish dogma.

Most of the Alt-Media Community is indistinguishable from "NAFO", they just don't all use the same profile pic style like "NAFO" does.

Same lies, same harassment, just in pursuit of a different cause. Once you see it, you can't unsee it. It's all so tiresome.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Time's up, you're banned.

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Jul 17, 2025
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Andrew Korybko's avatar

I never said that I expected him to do so. Unmask yourself, sharing your real name and face along with a means of verifying both, and let's do a $1k children's charity challenge.

You have to remove your anonymity so that you can be socially accountable when you lose, and yes, you will lose, since you're defaming me and I never, ever said what you're claiming.

So, upon unmasking yourself, if you can show within 24 hours (~10am MSK on Saturday) that I said that, I'll donate $1k to a children's charity of your choice. If you can't, then you donate $1k to one of my choice.

If you don't accept, or if your next comment is trolling and not unmasking yourself by sharing ways to verify your identity, then you're blocked. The same goes for any other Alt-Media troll who lies about what I wrote/said.

Kennewick Man's avatar

Trump did never believe that he can stop this war on day one. He was simply grabbing the issue and saying what the majority of Americans wanted to hear in order to grab the extra votes. As some might say: He is the Ernest Hemingway of BS. Even if he totally stopped hardware deliveries to Ukraine, the war would have gone on for months. The conflict was so skillfully developed and brought into existence by hidden chess players that all parties were locked in but no space was provided for a final exit from the war as Russia was not expected to walk toward victory. Now, Russia is settling down to a winnable war forever scenario and US/NATO/Ukraine wants an exit without major losses and humiliation. This is not going to happen. The damage they caused for Russia has to be paid by territorial losses and humiliation and if it was up to Russia independent Ukraine would be dissolved.

Feral Finster's avatar

No, Trump will be mousetrapped into war, with his own vanity and the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Darras's avatar

Seriously, in the WW2 , USA needed Pearl Harbour and to be declared war by Germany to come in this war. US was then the land of the braves. What kind of American will come in Europe to fight against the most terrible army? You didn't find soldier to fight against iraki or afghan guérilleros, having to offer the US citizenship to South American or African which are ok to fight instead of Americans and you think that suddenly millions of brave Americans will raise to save a rotten Europe?

Or you think that US have secret techno-weapons, wunderwaffen which will crush Russia without an american blood drop? Juste with an american finger on a keyboard? And that without russian retaliation?

Seriously?

Feral Finster's avatar

You forgot Goering's words on war and getting the citizens to support wars that in no way benefit them.

Anyway, the US already has a large army, and there is no danger that they will not obey orders.

"Or you think that US have secret techno-weapons, wunderwaffen which will crush Russia without an american blood drop? Juste with an american finger on a keyboard? And that without russian retaliation?"

The european general staffs obviously think something like that. So, what do you know that they do not? They also are convinced that a nuclear exchange is survivable, at least for the elites (and who cares about anyone else?), and that besides, Russia doesn't have the stones.

Otherwise, you keep trying to find moral reckonings. None of them matter. Just as, even if they only way that the US could get soldiers was by offering citizenship to people from third world countries (which isn't true, but I'll humor you) - so what? It works.

That is the only thing that matters - does. it. work?

barnabus's avatar

The way USA is disorganized, I don't think they would be able to survive nuclear exchange unscathed, if allies in Pacific and Europe are taken out too. The only up-side would be that they would get rid of the rotten downtowns.

Feral Finster's avatar

Read again what I wrote.

"They also are convinced that a nuclear exchange is survivable, at least for the elites (and who cares about anyone else?), and that besides, Russia doesn't have the stones."

barnabus's avatar

Elites don't survive by themselves - they need the population that aligns with them. Population is gone, elite is gone too.

Darras's avatar

Perhaps you're right.

I have not the holly truth.

But I hope you're wrong.

Friendly

Feral Finster's avatar

I hope that I am wrong as well. But I can see what is in front of me and I have no time for comforting lies.

Comforting lies are what get cats killed or used as subjects in gruesome medical experiments.

Carl Drogo's avatar

Trump wasn't manipulated into anything. He's a lying sack of manure. Just look at all the perfidy he did regarding Iran.

This war happened because of him, he's the one who armed Ukraine to the teeth, not Biden. Stop making excuses for this charlatan.

Darras's avatar

The first virtue of a statesman is character. Such an impressionable fool does not deserve to lead a country, especially the first in the world.

America, America, 25 years ago you elected a fool who let evil politicians do his job.

17 ans ago, you elected a president whose hands you have tied to the point of the most destructive disgust. 9 years ago, a dumb wreck ball which turned out to be a balloon. 5 years ago you let US democracy disappear in letting DeepState show you a mummy as POTUS. And then you elected( in the same doubtful way that 2020- look at the numbers, they speak alone) a naughty boy who listen the last who talk to him. Even his marital doll can influence him to challenge war with a terrible country like Russia and its 8000 nuclear head and hypersonic rockets.

There is only two solutions: either Trump is a tortuous genius( please, don't laugh) or USA became completely dumb for electing such pussy.

For exemple, I can assure you that France became completely dumb to vote for its three last presidents and twice the awful current.

I expect it's the same for USA.

Feral Finster's avatar

"Deserve" has nothing to do with it.

Darras's avatar

Sure .

My tongue went wrong. 😂

Hillary Han's avatar

Absolutely makes total sense! Trump is a very emotionally reactive man and being very emotional he also has expectations from Putin, who he wants to have a "Trump-friend" relationship. Thus, he is not able to see Putin diplomatically whatsoever. And he is often not in control of his reactions. Surely his wife's anti-Russian attitude pressures him.

This statement clearly shines light on Trump's emotional persona:

"Nothing was ultimately achieved due to the resultant deadlock, which Trump apparently took personally, thus making him susceptible to manipulation".

Feral Finster's avatar

None of it matters. It doesn't matter whether Trump is a neocon convert or whether the dope was again played.

The missiles fly, just the same.

Johannes Stockburger's avatar

Maybe this ultimatum and withholding the promised publication of the Epstein files was the price Trump paid to get rid of this Senate bill that would have forced him back into that war (500% tariffs on China and India, that would kill the US economy and destroy any change to retain in Congress a majority after the midterms)

Scott's avatar

Lei's Real Talk has an interesting angle on the CCP: https:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj33kXfxReo&t=1767s

China's plans if Russia were to lose to Ukraine. Go to beginning.

Jonathan Lemieux's avatar

so the missile strikes on Ukraine were all in Melania's head?

Daniel Gladstein's avatar

This is a good overview of the evidence, though I think much remains hidden.

One thing that struck me is Trump’s apparent lack of interest in finding out why Putin has continued to hit Ukraine. Before the minerals deal he said Putin’s attacks had no justification. There is no sign that he tried calling Putin or other Russian officials to hear the other side of the story. Given that Trump previously blamed Zelensky for stonewalling, his behavior makes little sense. Moreover, somewhat surprisingly, there is no clear evidence that the Russian side tried to clear up matters once Trump soured on Putin.

I think that Trump truly wanted a deal with Russia, so all this is a bit unexpected.

On July 14 Trump remarked that Ukraine could not have won even with the best U.S. equipment. Yet his first response was to massively infuse U.S. arms into Ukraine via European NATO states. Trump’s words and actions seem misaligned. (Trump himself continued military aid to Ukraine during his first term, but today blames Biden for the war.) Manipulation does not totally account for his inconsistencies, for an element of illogic also seems to be at play. Also, his shrewdness is at odds with gullibility; and neither really explains his unwillingness to hear Russia’s take on the situation.

I very much look forward to hearing more input from Mr. Korybko and others.

Daniel Gladstein's avatar

Another part of the puzzle is that the U.S.–Ukraine minerals deal was signed before a Russia–Ukraine agreement, not after. This suggests that the U.S. side might have been leaning toward Zelensky all along, for such a deal, given its timing, could have prejudiced ongoing talks between Russia and Ukraine. (Back in February Trump said on television that a minerals deal would allow Ukraine to receive a lot of military aid and continue fighting.) At any rate, the deal arguably did signify U.S. commitment to Ukrainian security, for otherwise it would not have been reasonably guaranteed. I could be wrong about this, of course, and other interpretations are possible.

Alexander Fernandez's avatar

Interesting take—Trump’s ego, expectations, and outside pressure seem to have boxed him into a messy middle ground on Ukraine.

Peti Bacsi's avatar

Great analysis. It just perplexes me how stupid Europeans are. Spend billions of dollars on American military equipment not even for their own defense but for giving them away to Ukraine, while the USA is punishing them with tariffs? Meanwhile they believe Russia is their enemy?

Beyond my understanding.