How Far Will Ukraine’s Corruption Scandal Go?

The most that might happen is a cabinet reshuffle since the SBU has no reason to support regime change against the man who unprecedentedly empowered them, nor does Trump since Zelensky does what he demands, but this scandal still discredits him and his government more than they already are.

A major scandal is rocking Ukraine after its National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which Zelensky unsuccessfully tried to subordinate over the summer, charged several important figures in connection with its investigation into a $100 million energy graft scandal. This includes Timur Mindich, Zelensky’s longtime business partner, who fled abroad as the authorities were closing after being tipp`ed off about his imminent arrest. He’s alleged to have also influenced the former Energy and Defense Ministers.

Speculation is now swirling that Zelensky himself either profited from this corruption or at the very least was aware of it but did nothing since it involved his close friend. This has in turn led to some wondering whether the US might demand that Zelensky step down or if it’ll work towards replacing him through other means. Tacit support for parliamentary efforts to remove him or various coup scenarios, such as a military one or a Color Revolution, are some of the possibilities being discussed on social media.

On the topic of parliament, former President Pyotr Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party already called for a new cabinet in an attempt to preempt the potential curtailment of European aid on this pretext. He’s also one of Zelensky’s fiercest rivals and could hypothetically replace him since he has experience running the country. That being said, regime change in Ukraine is extremely unlikely without the SBU’s backing, which has ruthlessly suppressed most expressions of political dissent over the past 3.5 years.

They have practically unlimited power under Zelensky too so there’s no reason for them to oust him. The US has also shown no interest in replacing him either, which would require some coordination with the SBU even if only demanding that they not interfere with the operation, despite a stream of reports from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service over the years alleging that they’re actively preparing to do so. The only way that this will happen is if Trump approves, but he’s on excellent terms with Zelensky nowadays.

A large-scale Russian breakthrough along the front might make him reconsider if Zelensky defies whatever Trump demands of him in that event, such as immediate concessions of some sort aimed at stopping the advance and averting Ukraine’s full-blown collapse, but that hasn’t yet happened. It can’t be ruled out after Russia encircled Ukraine troops in three key areas, however, but Zelensky might have the political acumen to do whatever is then demanded of him in order to avoid enraging Trump.

After all, he’s certainly aware that this high-profile corruption scandal could be leveraged by the US for regime change purposes if it wants to, so he’s expected to be on his “best behavior” for the time being. This doesn’t mean that he’ll stop trying to manipulate Trump, such as what his government and their British co-patrons sought to do through the latest false flag provocation that Russia’s Federal Security Service just foiled, just that defying him isn’t likely since it could end with Zelensky’s removal.

With this insight in mind, Ukraine’s corruption will probably only go as far as a cabinet reshuffle since the SBU has no reason to support regime change against Zelensky (including by passively letting others carry it out instead of thwarting their attempt), nor does Trump (at least for now). It still discredits him and his government even more than they already are, and the Europeans might curtail some funding on this pretext, but expectations that something significant might follow appear to just be wishful thinking.