How Likely Is It That Poland Gives Belarus A Fair Deal Instead Of A Lopsided One?

Belarus’ KGB chief recently claimed to have “reached an understanding of mutual interests” with Poland “in some cases” to the surprise of many observers.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently declared that he’s ready for a “big deal” with the US so long as his country’s interests are taken into account, which KGB chief Ivan Tertel seconded by telling reporters that “We have every chance of achieving a breakthrough in relations with the United States.” Lukashenko has played a key role in facilitating the Putin-Trump dialogue while Tertel has played a complementary one in facilitating Russian-Ukrainian POW swaps and other Ukrainian-related diplomacy.

Their optimism follows a report about the West trying to get Belarus to rebalance its ties with Russia by cooperating closer with them. It was assessed here that “The West Wants Belarus To Replace Supposed Russian Vassalage With Actual Polish Vassalage”, but “Russia is responsible for Belarus’ continued socio-economic stability through decades of generous energy subsidies and access to its enormous market, and it helped quell summer 2020’s Color Revolution, so Lukashenko should know better than to betray it.”

Giving Lukashenko and Tertel the benefit of the doubt since they’ve done nothing to arouse suspicions of their intentions, any US-Belarusian deal would still require a Polish-Belarusian one to be complete, yet that hitherto far-fetched scenario might already be in the works to the surprise of many observers. Leading Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita cited unnamed sources to report earlier in October on their country’s three conditions for a reset in bilateral relations.

These are ending Belarus’ alleged weaponization of illegal immigration against Poland, releasing jailed Polish activist Andrzej Poczobut who was convicted of extremist charges in 2023, and identifying those responsible for the murder of a Polish border guard last year. Publicly financed BelTA responded to these conditions in a lengthy article here, which was released several days after Rzeczpospolita’s article on the same day as Lukashenko and Tertel’s coordinated remarks about a breakthrough in ties with the US.

While BelTA’s polemics contrast with the optimism espoused by the aforesaid two, Tertel also revealed on that same day that “we are gradually reaching an understanding (with Poland and the Baltic States). We discuss acute issues and, in some cases, reach an understanding of mutual interests.” If that’s true, though Poland denies it, then a fair deal could see Belarus complying with Poland’s conditions if Poland stops its saber-rattling, ends support for Color Revolutionaries in Belarus, and opens all border crossings.

Belarus’ compliance could be predicated on the calculation that BelTA wrote about in their lengthy article: “Reversing everything the Polish elites had done over the past five years would be seen as a complete failure of Poland’s policy toward Belarus. In these circumstances, Warsaw needs at least a symbolic victory. Hence the conditions.” That’s sensible, but given the lack of bilateral trust, they might ultimately agree to a phased rapprochement that could mirror any grand Russian-US deal over Ukraine.

Russia is Belarus’ top ally just like the US is Poland’s so there’s a logic to their rapprochements paralleling each other since any US- and/or Polish-Belarusian rapprochement preceding a Russian-US one could sow distrust in Russian-Belarusian ties even if that’s not Lukashenko and Tertel’s intent. Of course, the US and Poland wouldn’t mind that, but Belarus’ two most powerful figures appear wise enough to avoid their trap. If they can get the US and Poland to give Belarus a fair deal, then Russia would welcome this.