They now hate Iran for damaging their energy infrastructure and therefore don’t want to indefinitely pay it “petroyuan” as part of the “toll” system that the Islamic Republic is flirting with imposing.
Once Iran starts charging a toll for the Hormuz transit, none of the GCC countries will be in any position to build an alternative transit route to bypass it, because any such endeavour will take years, while Iran has instant control of the spigot to their economy, even if we leave military options aside - they are over a barrel, in every which way.
I suspect the way out is a Modus Vivendi brokered by their customers, and China is their biggest customer, since it is in all their interests to play nice. The two arsonists, meanwhile, can regret in leisure.
‘but they now hate Iran after what it’s done to them much more than they dislike the US.’
As the decades were going buy and the Arab States were building their utopian paradise they gradually submitted to US pressure and became so many military strongholds. For what possible purpose? To balance and if necessary subjugate the two strongest states in the area, Iraq and Iran. Now, they found themselves in the center of a war they are not equipped to fight. They are completely vulnerable because their drinking water and oil transport routes can be controlled by Iran. If their desalinization plants will be taken out America will refer them to the nearest 7/11 store to buy bottled water. It is 56 plants that supply 90% of the drinking water to the Gulf States. Iran is not in this group. That is an indefensible proposition. The US/Israel coalition, by attacking Iran, opened up the possibility of dissolving the existence of the Arab population there in large part by denial of water and oil shipping routes. The whole of the situation became a giant geopolitical, strategical, financial and military puzzle with no clear path toward solutions. An attack on the water plants can trigger evacuations all over as there are no alternative solutions for water supplies.
«the Arab States were building their utopian paradise they gradually submitted to US pressure and became so many military strongholds. For what possible purpose? To balance and if necessary subjugate the two strongest states in the area, Iraq and Iran.»
Then main purpose: they have between 50% and 90% foreign immigrants among the population and these immigrants could easily do a coup instead of being low paid and brutalized servants. So the USA bases are not there to defend them so much from Iraq (see 1990s) and Iran (see this year) but to provide rapid repression of possible rebellions by pakistani-indian-egyptian-palestinian servants. In particular I would guess that without USA protection the indian government would have armed and organized the indian workers in Arabia to take over from the local families. After all that region during the english empire was ruled not directly from London but from India.
"Whether Persia liked it or not, the political resident had naval forces at his disposal to suppress piracy, slave trading, and gun running, and to enforce quarantine regulations; he also could, and did, put landing parties and punitive expeditions ashore on the Persia coast. In 1822, the Bushehr and Basra residencies were combined, with Bushehr serving as headquarters for the new position of "British Resident for the Persian Gulf." A chief political resident was the chief executive officer of the political unit, and he was subordinate to the Governor of Bombay until 1873 and the Governor-General of India until 1947"
Your paranoia is hilarious and the first time I've heard of such a scenario. In all my dealings with Indian govt officials and politicians, I've never heard anything ljke this discussed.
Thanks for the idea. Will share it ASAP. Nothing will come of it as they don't operate this way.
«the indian government would have armed and organized the indian workers in Arabia to take over from the local families.»
"Your paranoia is hilarious [...] Thanks for the idea. Will share it ASAP. Nothing will come of it as they don't operate this way. Now Pakistan is a different story."
But imagine that some large Gulf oil producer had a population that was 10% native arab, 40% indian, 30% pakistani, 20% others, and the 10% native arab lost USA "protection" and the pakistani residents tired of being treated brutally and with an eye on the prize did a coup and took over with the support of the pakistani government.
It would be a major defeat for India because Pakistan would get a large new source of funding and a part of India's oil supply would be controlled by Pakistan instead of the USA. It is bad enough that India's oil (and food) supplies currently are controlled by the USA.
So if only to deny such an an advantage to Pakistan the indian government would have to act quicker than them. "Realpolitik".
I don't think the Indian state is giving any thought to such a thing. That said, a coup by the people of the Gulf states would be quite desirable. They are ruled by a relatively small clique of former camel drivers (now princes) who seized power with the support of the US and Great Britain to secure access to oil and gas for the West. The US bases serve to maintain this power and to support the realization of a Zionist dream – Greater Israel.
«or any other foreigners, cant be allowed into nations in large numbers.»
The case of the Gulf states is special because the immigrants are often a large majority. For a minority to take over they need to be a large minority and the majority needs to be unwilling or less able to fight back.
Thanks to them, Israel is destroying Iran easily , bridges, hospitals, schools, universities, water plant, kills Iranian small girls and they hate Iran for retaliating...
They surely consider now Iran that a mad dog but they know who made it rabid.
They surely considering by-passing Ormuz for 30 billions dollars but they know who is the cause of that.
I'm not sure that their hate concern only Iran.
And no Iranian official never said publicly that the head of Saudi state kiss his ass when he want.
The Gulf Kingdoms should have built alternative routes LONG AGO, but they are not led by competent leaders supported by competent ministers. IMHO, they should build such routes no matter how the current war ends.
However, there are reasons to delay such projects when they consider only the welfare of the royal families: save the expense if the US can protect them, prevent Israel from expansion, and help them suppress domestic dissidents. After 1979, maybe against Iran. If Hormuz is protected by the US, then the alternative routes can be delayed. Now, the situation is that the US has been proven to be incapable of keeping the Strait open. Either the GCC countries persuade Russia to replace the US role (unlikely), or have a peace settlement with Iran (unlikely either), or they have to build alternative routes and protect such routes. BUT, Iran can already cover most of the routes and exports by missiles. As the war continues, the precision of the Iranian missiles will improve. Therefore, sooner or later, the GCC countries must return to Iran to have a settlement and coexist. The price will be paid by everyone who buys oil from the ME. A worldwide stagnation will happen until the war damages are mostly covered. Israel, if it still exists by then, must play along because the US will not be able to support Israel as much as today.
With all due respect to the author, the Iranian toll scheme can hardly be seen as anything other than a total defeat for the U.S. and Co. One cannot build pipelines in wartime, and the nature of improvisation betrays the ill-planned conception of this war. Many aspects of this war—such as Iranian technical abilities, geographic hurdles, the need for HUMINT, and the role of a large-scale land invasion—had been foretold in advance by U.S. defense agencies, yet Trump 2.0 clearly ignored them.
He even overlooked the most basic considerations, such as the need for an ample force to secure the Straits beforehand. Moreover, Trump is also being sabotaged by the various Iranian fronts masquerading as ‘liberal-globalist’ opposition, whether in Europe, the U.S. Congress, or the MSM—yet he has done nothing to implement World War II- or even Cold War-type measures, such as censorship, detention, or deportation (much less execution under the Alien and Sedition Act).
Even from an anti-Iranian viewpoint, Team Trump has proven to be criminally negligent in devising and executing this war.
Of course, there's a silver lining to all this....if enough oil is out of production, taking sanctions off of Russian oil becomes essentially a force majeure. That would crowbar the hand holding the RU-Ukraine war in play.
Unrelated, but I'm also intrigued that nobody has mentioned the possibility that the US would blockade ships leaving Hormuz on the basis of either free movement through international waters for all, or nobody goes through. In terms of game theory that's much more likely than Iran ever sustaining a toll system...as much as it makes for great headlines...Iran needs money and China* needs oil, so the clock would be ticking.
(* Interesting as the dog that didn't bark -- why did the admin put so much pressure on India getting off of Russian oil if they knew this supply shock was coming in a few months, as they must have known? In a sense they did China a favor, and tossed India down the stairs by shifting them to greater reliance on Hormuz route. Long term, I'm still of the opinion that eventually oil will be the leverage point that Russia influences China, in a pincer move with the US. Short term though, it is strange timing.)
I don't think the Trump regime knows what it's doing from day to day.
Trump went from "I love Modi" to "I hate Modi" and back again in a few weeks. I haven't checked the timeline but I think the firm rejection of his offer to sell India the overpriced lemon F-35 triggered his first hate fest. The approval of the purchase of Apache helicopters might have helped flip him back.
He didn't expect the Iranians would be so resolute. It caught him and his minions by surprise.
They already hated Iran before this and the Saudi's, Emeriti's and Qatari's also hate each other!!! If memory serves me right, the Qatari's were nothing more than "300 tents in the desert" and of course KSA treathened to bomb it. The Emirati's were bombed recently by KSA in Yemen.
A pipeline to the Mediterranean (-> Europe) is only possible if it goes through Israel. USIS+UK would block any other alternative as they will not tolerate more leverage for Turkey (caretaker of Syria). Regardless, it will take years to build those pipelines... probably when they're finished the war would be over.
The pipeline to Fujairah was already bombed recently. How safe is that. Will KSA merrily host a pipeline carrying Qatari or Emirati gas/oil? Me thinks not.
So another reason to hate Iran, not that they ever stopped hating Iran, eh?! The monarchies hate such proximal, powerful republic that has not only democratic underpinnings but also ethical and moral ones, based on Islamic traditions.
If Iran also starts a closer collaboration with Yemen the GCC is cornered. It is not only the oil that needs to flow, but the LNG, the food, the fertilizer, the aluminum, etc. ANd the pipelines can be sabotaged as well. Iran can take some scripts from Israel and US playbook as well, as long as GCC continue to see Iran as an enemy. With such an outlook, Iran will become an enemy. If Iran is not allowed to have intercourse with the world, neither GCC, the hosts of US and befrienders of genocidal Israel.
Yesterday, promise of retaliation and refusal of any talk.
Today, only whiny regrets for the bombing of an Iranian atomic plant( no threat of retaliation) and proposal of talks with USA in Pakistan because, I quote the iranian MoFA " it's the US media which badly reported the Iranian position".
Are Pezeskian and the gang gaining the upper hand?
Once Iran starts charging a toll for the Hormuz transit, none of the GCC countries will be in any position to build an alternative transit route to bypass it, because any such endeavour will take years, while Iran has instant control of the spigot to their economy, even if we leave military options aside - they are over a barrel, in every which way.
I suspect the way out is a Modus Vivendi brokered by their customers, and China is their biggest customer, since it is in all their interests to play nice. The two arsonists, meanwhile, can regret in leisure.
‘but they now hate Iran after what it’s done to them much more than they dislike the US.’
As the decades were going buy and the Arab States were building their utopian paradise they gradually submitted to US pressure and became so many military strongholds. For what possible purpose? To balance and if necessary subjugate the two strongest states in the area, Iraq and Iran. Now, they found themselves in the center of a war they are not equipped to fight. They are completely vulnerable because their drinking water and oil transport routes can be controlled by Iran. If their desalinization plants will be taken out America will refer them to the nearest 7/11 store to buy bottled water. It is 56 plants that supply 90% of the drinking water to the Gulf States. Iran is not in this group. That is an indefensible proposition. The US/Israel coalition, by attacking Iran, opened up the possibility of dissolving the existence of the Arab population there in large part by denial of water and oil shipping routes. The whole of the situation became a giant geopolitical, strategical, financial and military puzzle with no clear path toward solutions. An attack on the water plants can trigger evacuations all over as there are no alternative solutions for water supplies.
https://fortune.com/2026/03/08/iran-war-persian-gulf-saltwater-kingdoms-desalination-attacks-infrastructure-evacuations/
«the Arab States were building their utopian paradise they gradually submitted to US pressure and became so many military strongholds. For what possible purpose? To balance and if necessary subjugate the two strongest states in the area, Iraq and Iran.»
Then main purpose: they have between 50% and 90% foreign immigrants among the population and these immigrants could easily do a coup instead of being low paid and brutalized servants. So the USA bases are not there to defend them so much from Iraq (see 1990s) and Iran (see this year) but to provide rapid repression of possible rebellions by pakistani-indian-egyptian-palestinian servants. In particular I would guess that without USA protection the indian government would have armed and organized the indian workers in Arabia to take over from the local families. After all that region during the english empire was ruled not directly from London but from India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Gulf_Residency
"Whether Persia liked it or not, the political resident had naval forces at his disposal to suppress piracy, slave trading, and gun running, and to enforce quarantine regulations; he also could, and did, put landing parties and punitive expeditions ashore on the Persia coast. In 1822, the Bushehr and Basra residencies were combined, with Bushehr serving as headquarters for the new position of "British Resident for the Persian Gulf." A chief political resident was the chief executive officer of the political unit, and he was subordinate to the Governor of Bombay until 1873 and the Governor-General of India until 1947"
Your paranoia is hilarious and the first time I've heard of such a scenario. In all my dealings with Indian govt officials and politicians, I've never heard anything ljke this discussed.
Thanks for the idea. Will share it ASAP. Nothing will come of it as they don't operate this way.
Now Pakistan is a different story.
«the indian government would have armed and organized the indian workers in Arabia to take over from the local families.»
"Your paranoia is hilarious [...] Thanks for the idea. Will share it ASAP. Nothing will come of it as they don't operate this way. Now Pakistan is a different story."
But imagine that some large Gulf oil producer had a population that was 10% native arab, 40% indian, 30% pakistani, 20% others, and the 10% native arab lost USA "protection" and the pakistani residents tired of being treated brutally and with an eye on the prize did a coup and took over with the support of the pakistani government.
It would be a major defeat for India because Pakistan would get a large new source of funding and a part of India's oil supply would be controlled by Pakistan instead of the USA. It is bad enough that India's oil (and food) supplies currently are controlled by the USA.
So if only to deny such an an advantage to Pakistan the indian government would have to act quicker than them. "Realpolitik".
I don't think the Indian state is giving any thought to such a thing. That said, a coup by the people of the Gulf states would be quite desirable. They are ruled by a relatively small clique of former camel drivers (now princes) who seized power with the support of the US and Great Britain to secure access to oil and gas for the West. The US bases serve to maintain this power and to support the realization of a Zionist dream – Greater Israel.
" the indian government would have armed and organized the indian workers in Arabia to take over from the local families. "
This is why Indians, or any other foreigners, cant be allowed into nations in large numbers.
«or any other foreigners, cant be allowed into nations in large numbers.»
The case of the Gulf states is special because the immigrants are often a large majority. For a minority to take over they need to be a large minority and the majority needs to be unwilling or less able to fight back.
I like those Gulf big shot.
Thanks to them, Israel is destroying Iran easily , bridges, hospitals, schools, universities, water plant, kills Iranian small girls and they hate Iran for retaliating...
They surely consider now Iran that a mad dog but they know who made it rabid.
They surely considering by-passing Ormuz for 30 billions dollars but they know who is the cause of that.
I'm not sure that their hate concern only Iran.
And no Iranian official never said publicly that the head of Saudi state kiss his ass when he want.
"Iran might indeed impose its “toll” system and help launch the “petrodollar”". Do you mean to say the petroyuan?
No, no, he said " send petrodollar to the moon". :)
The Gulf Kingdoms should have built alternative routes LONG AGO, but they are not led by competent leaders supported by competent ministers. IMHO, they should build such routes no matter how the current war ends.
However, there are reasons to delay such projects when they consider only the welfare of the royal families: save the expense if the US can protect them, prevent Israel from expansion, and help them suppress domestic dissidents. After 1979, maybe against Iran. If Hormuz is protected by the US, then the alternative routes can be delayed. Now, the situation is that the US has been proven to be incapable of keeping the Strait open. Either the GCC countries persuade Russia to replace the US role (unlikely), or have a peace settlement with Iran (unlikely either), or they have to build alternative routes and protect such routes. BUT, Iran can already cover most of the routes and exports by missiles. As the war continues, the precision of the Iranian missiles will improve. Therefore, sooner or later, the GCC countries must return to Iran to have a settlement and coexist. The price will be paid by everyone who buys oil from the ME. A worldwide stagnation will happen until the war damages are mostly covered. Israel, if it still exists by then, must play along because the US will not be able to support Israel as much as today.
With all due respect to the author, the Iranian toll scheme can hardly be seen as anything other than a total defeat for the U.S. and Co. One cannot build pipelines in wartime, and the nature of improvisation betrays the ill-planned conception of this war. Many aspects of this war—such as Iranian technical abilities, geographic hurdles, the need for HUMINT, and the role of a large-scale land invasion—had been foretold in advance by U.S. defense agencies, yet Trump 2.0 clearly ignored them.
He even overlooked the most basic considerations, such as the need for an ample force to secure the Straits beforehand. Moreover, Trump is also being sabotaged by the various Iranian fronts masquerading as ‘liberal-globalist’ opposition, whether in Europe, the U.S. Congress, or the MSM—yet he has done nothing to implement World War II- or even Cold War-type measures, such as censorship, detention, or deportation (much less execution under the Alien and Sedition Act).
Even from an anti-Iranian viewpoint, Team Trump has proven to be criminally negligent in devising and executing this war.
Redundancy in any complex system is good, provided the redundancy has been planned out properly.
Of course, there's a silver lining to all this....if enough oil is out of production, taking sanctions off of Russian oil becomes essentially a force majeure. That would crowbar the hand holding the RU-Ukraine war in play.
Unrelated, but I'm also intrigued that nobody has mentioned the possibility that the US would blockade ships leaving Hormuz on the basis of either free movement through international waters for all, or nobody goes through. In terms of game theory that's much more likely than Iran ever sustaining a toll system...as much as it makes for great headlines...Iran needs money and China* needs oil, so the clock would be ticking.
(* Interesting as the dog that didn't bark -- why did the admin put so much pressure on India getting off of Russian oil if they knew this supply shock was coming in a few months, as they must have known? In a sense they did China a favor, and tossed India down the stairs by shifting them to greater reliance on Hormuz route. Long term, I'm still of the opinion that eventually oil will be the leverage point that Russia influences China, in a pincer move with the US. Short term though, it is strange timing.)
I don't think the Trump regime knows what it's doing from day to day.
Trump went from "I love Modi" to "I hate Modi" and back again in a few weeks. I haven't checked the timeline but I think the firm rejection of his offer to sell India the overpriced lemon F-35 triggered his first hate fest. The approval of the purchase of Apache helicopters might have helped flip him back.
He didn't expect the Iranians would be so resolute. It caught him and his minions by surprise.
It's not obvious that the Yuan becoming a global reserve currency is compatible with China's export/manufacturing based economy.
Andrew, China and Russia mainly and France, a little, caused to fail the vote on Bahreïn résolution in UN .
Vote is delayed without date.
That mean either it would not have got the majority or that Russia and China would have used their veto.
It's a very important new in what it means of Russia and China attitude toward this war., I'm surprise that nobody speaks about ir
They already hated Iran before this and the Saudi's, Emeriti's and Qatari's also hate each other!!! If memory serves me right, the Qatari's were nothing more than "300 tents in the desert" and of course KSA treathened to bomb it. The Emirati's were bombed recently by KSA in Yemen.
A pipeline to the Mediterranean (-> Europe) is only possible if it goes through Israel. USIS+UK would block any other alternative as they will not tolerate more leverage for Turkey (caretaker of Syria). Regardless, it will take years to build those pipelines... probably when they're finished the war would be over.
The pipeline to Fujairah was already bombed recently. How safe is that. Will KSA merrily host a pipeline carrying Qatari or Emirati gas/oil? Me thinks not.
True, but they import nearly everything, and that means they will still pay a toll of some sort.
With the destroyed USA military bases, who is going to protect these kings / sheiks, etc. more importantly, how will their assets be protected?
So another reason to hate Iran, not that they ever stopped hating Iran, eh?! The monarchies hate such proximal, powerful republic that has not only democratic underpinnings but also ethical and moral ones, based on Islamic traditions.
If Iran also starts a closer collaboration with Yemen the GCC is cornered. It is not only the oil that needs to flow, but the LNG, the food, the fertilizer, the aluminum, etc. ANd the pipelines can be sabotaged as well. Iran can take some scripts from Israel and US playbook as well, as long as GCC continue to see Iran as an enemy. With such an outlook, Iran will become an enemy. If Iran is not allowed to have intercourse with the world, neither GCC, the hosts of US and befrienders of genocidal Israel.
It seems that Iranians begin to change of tune...
Yesterday, promise of retaliation and refusal of any talk.
Today, only whiny regrets for the bombing of an Iranian atomic plant( no threat of retaliation) and proposal of talks with USA in Pakistan because, I quote the iranian MoFA " it's the US media which badly reported the Iranian position".
Are Pezeskian and the gang gaining the upper hand?
obviously, when i talked about israeli moving to a safe place in donbass, i didn't mean "moving them to russia", but creating israel there.