Turkiye nowadays plays a major role in US grand strategy due to last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) across southern Armenia serving the dual purpose of a NATO military logistics corridor to Central Asia that snakes across Russia’s entire southern periphery.
Why would Turkey want to give up an an air defence system which is superior to the Patriot, so it can purchase an expensive stealth aircraft which can be shot down with a shoulder fired infrared interceptor missile? An aircraft which is currently being delivered without a radar system! Or does Trump need someone to build these planes for him?!
I may be wrong, but I sense that what is happening between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey should worry the USA infinitely more than Russia or China. I think the Saudis have never forgiven the violation of their territory, considered sacred, by the USA during the first Gulf War. And a direct, public, and filthy insult like Trump's recent one towards MBS will never be forgiven. Arabs know how to be patient, very patient. Pakistanis have always been ambivalent between the USA and China, and they are increasingly dependent on Saudi money.
There is no need to present Turkish nationalism and its vengeful spirit after its own century of shame since 1918. I think what is aimed for is the use and lulling to sleep of the USA, characteristic of the legendary "taqiya", in order to eventually become a true regional power hub. Faced with this, Israel and the United Arab Emirates seem, for their part, to sense the danger.
If somehow the Erdoganian grip on power becomes loosened, is oppositional replacement not more secularist-West-leaning anyway, in which case Russian radar is less important than the US connexion as well. Was the radar a thing for Russian apparently maybe even saving Erdogan's life not only his regime back when? Long a bygone in the world churn of today.
The belated Turks-bashing-Armenians g-word card now trying to be played by some in Israel, does seem to be merely a card, an intended reciprocal insult, as it appears to be of little interest to the surviving regime in Armenia itself, further involved as it is in the 'hood. Is it to somehow nudge US Armenians to pipe up? Anyway, Kurds, Greeks and surely many others have what to say about Turkish history (as about Russian...) .And seeking overseas investment and sales is a rather big deal for the US admin now, not to mention rejigging trade relationships altogether.
As for how aircraft play into domineering intl affairs, i recall how state of the art military aviation in both Canad & Israel was axed in one way or another due to US exclusionism (around '60, Arrow in Canada; Lavi in Isr '80s - altho' in both cases the enormous developmental costs for smaller polities entered consideration). Canada since slouched back into minimalist defence orientation (only in reversal now to meet the NATO 5% thing**); Israel on the other hand making a commercial virtue of urgent necessities, very other than facing Canadians, in different military fields (which I think in turn has greatly been taken up for decades by the US, partly explaining enduring Isr worth to them but also vulnerability for when those in US take it from there and no longer feel need of the source).
**Part of this gargantuan spending increase in military affairs in Canada, now that we're talking about radar - only a few km from where we live is set to installed an OTHR facility for Arctic monitoring. Per Canadian history in megaprojects, it can be expected to be a "white elephant" when fully developed. As for us here, we are preparing to flee for the overhead hazard pointed our direction. While this radar differs from others, it is of note that over-horizon systems i think typically are situated far from human habitation, eg in Australia, the vendor to Canada, we see transmit sites way out in the outback. "Only in Canada, you say? - Pity" (if any of you know the old teevee tea ad). The serious Justice re concern about dangers of manmade electropollution is pushed even farther back from mainstream notice with all the mad bump up in military expenditure worldwide.
Why would Turkey want to give up an an air defence system which is superior to the Patriot, so it can purchase an expensive stealth aircraft which can be shot down with a shoulder fired infrared interceptor missile? An aircraft which is currently being delivered without a radar system! Or does Trump need someone to build these planes for him?!
Because they crave American carrot and fear American stick. Russian dithering and indecision have only cemented this.
.
I may be wrong, but I sense that what is happening between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey should worry the USA infinitely more than Russia or China. I think the Saudis have never forgiven the violation of their territory, considered sacred, by the USA during the first Gulf War. And a direct, public, and filthy insult like Trump's recent one towards MBS will never be forgiven. Arabs know how to be patient, very patient. Pakistanis have always been ambivalent between the USA and China, and they are increasingly dependent on Saudi money.
There is no need to present Turkish nationalism and its vengeful spirit after its own century of shame since 1918. I think what is aimed for is the use and lulling to sleep of the USA, characteristic of the legendary "taqiya", in order to eventually become a true regional power hub. Faced with this, Israel and the United Arab Emirates seem, for their part, to sense the danger.
RUSSIA is not afraid. RUSSIA iis the worlds nuclear super power. Those who need to be afraid are those that are trying to taunt RUSSIA.
When would the US be in a position to deliver fully equipped F35 to Turkey ?
Are they even able to resupply those destroyed during the conflict with Iran ?
Yes, absolutely. They can deliver the jets in 2029, then the radars in 2031, the wheels in 2033 and the wings in 2038.
If somehow the Erdoganian grip on power becomes loosened, is oppositional replacement not more secularist-West-leaning anyway, in which case Russian radar is less important than the US connexion as well. Was the radar a thing for Russian apparently maybe even saving Erdogan's life not only his regime back when? Long a bygone in the world churn of today.
The belated Turks-bashing-Armenians g-word card now trying to be played by some in Israel, does seem to be merely a card, an intended reciprocal insult, as it appears to be of little interest to the surviving regime in Armenia itself, further involved as it is in the 'hood. Is it to somehow nudge US Armenians to pipe up? Anyway, Kurds, Greeks and surely many others have what to say about Turkish history (as about Russian...) .And seeking overseas investment and sales is a rather big deal for the US admin now, not to mention rejigging trade relationships altogether.
As for how aircraft play into domineering intl affairs, i recall how state of the art military aviation in both Canad & Israel was axed in one way or another due to US exclusionism (around '60, Arrow in Canada; Lavi in Isr '80s - altho' in both cases the enormous developmental costs for smaller polities entered consideration). Canada since slouched back into minimalist defence orientation (only in reversal now to meet the NATO 5% thing**); Israel on the other hand making a commercial virtue of urgent necessities, very other than facing Canadians, in different military fields (which I think in turn has greatly been taken up for decades by the US, partly explaining enduring Isr worth to them but also vulnerability for when those in US take it from there and no longer feel need of the source).
**Part of this gargantuan spending increase in military affairs in Canada, now that we're talking about radar - only a few km from where we live is set to installed an OTHR facility for Arctic monitoring. Per Canadian history in megaprojects, it can be expected to be a "white elephant" when fully developed. As for us here, we are preparing to flee for the overhead hazard pointed our direction. While this radar differs from others, it is of note that over-horizon systems i think typically are situated far from human habitation, eg in Australia, the vendor to Canada, we see transmit sites way out in the outback. "Only in Canada, you say? - Pity" (if any of you know the old teevee tea ad). The serious Justice re concern about dangers of manmade electropollution is pushed even farther back from mainstream notice with all the mad bump up in military expenditure worldwide.
"How likely is it...?"
Very.
Not that it makes much sense. The principal challenge to the USA are China and Iran, not Russia.
It's a matter of dominos and soft belly.