It’s a step in the right direction, but TRIPP’s unstated dual purpose of a NATO military logistics corridor that’ll ultimately stretch across Russia’s entire southern periphery must be neutralized in order for this rapprochement to last, which would require Azerbaijan to make some politically difficult decisions.
He has already think about that. He has already taken his decision. He doesn't give a shit of of his country.
He already plays in US bunch and is only fooling Poutine, like he has already fooled him several time.
The bet is simple. If he plays with Russia, he has nothing more to win and he become an adversary for West.
If he plays for West, he has everything to win, personally, and with 99% of probability that Russia does nothing. And if Russia attacks? And if Russia is more resolute and efficient than in Ukraine? He can just flee abroad everywhere in the world with dozens of billions dollars.
I'm also very skeptical about this rapprochement and think that it was a mistake to normalize ties without Azerbaijan first doing something tangible regarding TRIPP's demilitarization. It seems like Russia decided to accept TRIPP as the "new normal". I hope that I'm wrong, but I feel like that's what the thinking is at the MFA and Putin simply signed off on it.
Is Russia so desperate that the slightest contemptuous caress, even from a snake without honor or guts, is enough to satisfy it? In France, we say, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Here, with the Russians, it's more like: 'A bird in the bush is better than nothing at all.'
Unfortunately, I think that Russia might have calculated that it's better to superficially resolve its tensions with Azerbaijan than divide its focus from Ukraine by redirecting some of its attention southward to address latent threats from there.
I also believe that Aliyev expected as much too. Keep in mind that he, like Lavrov and I, is an alumni of the MFA-run MGIMO so he knows exactly how Russian diplomats think.
I've long assessed that he masterfully exploited this "inside knowledge" to manipulate Russia since the AZAL incident in December 2024 was taken advantage of as the pretext for worsening their tensions and ultimately agreeing to TRIPP:
Unlike me, who's relied on such "inside knowledge" to try to help Russia, he's relied on it to harm Russia. Precisely because of the MFA's broken feedback loops that I never tire of talking about, however, Russia was none the wiser.
I fear that few, if any, realized this. They really seem to have no idea how "clever" Aliyev is and the lengths to which he was willing to go to advance his country's interests at Russia's expense.
At the end of the day, it's their country and thus their responsibility to try to help it. I can't "love Russia more than the Russians themselves do", especially the diplomats tasked with this responsibility. My conscience is clean, theirs isn't.
Five years ago, Russia was despised—a racist kind of contempt (much like that shown toward Poles, Slovaks, Baltics, Romanians, Serbs, or Albanians—the Czechs, Hungarians, Slovenes, and Croats are part of the western club... in third class, while the French and Latins are in second class). But it was feared. Enough so for an appearance of respect. Today, Russia is merely despised in the West. Beware—the PRNR (the Russian-speaking world abroad?), being extremely disappointed and dismayed by Russian passivity, could tomorrow become its harshest detractors. I wonder if Russian leaders realize the extreme danger that this growing contempt represents for their country?
EXACTLY! I've been warning about that for a while, namely that the "Potemkinist" psy-op of lying about Russia's objectively existing and easily verifiable policies will ultimately breed so much resentment among the NRPRs that they'll either become literal psychopaths who continue lying to themselves or more likely feel betrayed upon inevitably learning the truth, realizing they were lied to, and transforming their former radical love of Russia into radical hatred (there's sometimes a thin line between love and hate).
Russia's "soft power supervisors" would unfortunately, I truly believe, prefer for people to like Russia based on false premises than to like Russia based on the truth of its policies even if they sometimes disagree with them.
What they want aren't supporters per se, but cultists, people who'll "trust the plan" (which is a completely made-up one tailored to what certain categories of supporters think is "the right policy" and therefore contradictory since multiple "plans" exist) and never ever question it.
Some NRPR cultists truly believe that Putin is an anti-Zionist just like they are while others believe that he wants to liberate Constantinople and return it to a Christian capital. It's absolutely batshit crazy but they genuinely believe that these are his "secret plans".
The reality of Russia behaving deferentially towards both Israel and Turkiye is casually dismissed as part of a "5D chess master plan for psyching them out", they can't accept the reality before their very eyes or their worldview would collapse with all that would entail for their stability.
The question posed in the title—regarding the timing—is a bold one. With Aliyev’s commitment to TRIPP, the explosive device planted by the Americans has effectively been fitted with a fuse. If Russia does not soon bring Azerbaijan back into its sphere of influence, its southern flank will become a massive staging ground within five to ten years.
It's the story of the plantation 'negro' who becomes a house 'negro' and ends up growing so bold that one day he sits at the masters' table. Just for a moment. The masters are experts at playing the 'negroes' against one another and reminding them that they can quickly be sent back to the plantation.
Russia sit sright atop Azerbajan and the USA is 10,000 miles away. Russia will control the area. Russia controls virtually all of Asia except Israel the American favoate. Russia is a NUCLEAR S upere Power.
He has already think about that. He has already taken his decision. He doesn't give a shit of of his country.
He already plays in US bunch and is only fooling Poutine, like he has already fooled him several time.
The bet is simple. If he plays with Russia, he has nothing more to win and he become an adversary for West.
If he plays for West, he has everything to win, personally, and with 99% of probability that Russia does nothing. And if Russia attacks? And if Russia is more resolute and efficient than in Ukraine? He can just flee abroad everywhere in the world with dozens of billions dollars.
What would be your choice?
Once again , Russia il being fooled.
I'm also very skeptical about this rapprochement and think that it was a mistake to normalize ties without Azerbaijan first doing something tangible regarding TRIPP's demilitarization. It seems like Russia decided to accept TRIPP as the "new normal". I hope that I'm wrong, but I feel like that's what the thinking is at the MFA and Putin simply signed off on it.
This is the point. Exactly that.
Paschinjan and Alijev. Both were bought.
Life punishes those who come too late.
We will have Ukraine 2.0 and 3.0 there. Then, when they realize, that it's too late.
Is Russia so desperate that the slightest contemptuous caress, even from a snake without honor or guts, is enough to satisfy it? In France, we say, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Here, with the Russians, it's more like: 'A bird in the bush is better than nothing at all.'
Unfortunately, I think that Russia might have calculated that it's better to superficially resolve its tensions with Azerbaijan than divide its focus from Ukraine by redirecting some of its attention southward to address latent threats from there.
I also believe that Aliyev expected as much too. Keep in mind that he, like Lavrov and I, is an alumni of the MFA-run MGIMO so he knows exactly how Russian diplomats think.
I've long assessed that he masterfully exploited this "inside knowledge" to manipulate Russia since the AZAL incident in December 2024 was taken advantage of as the pretext for worsening their tensions and ultimately agreeing to TRIPP:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzing-aliyevs-theory-about-the
Unlike me, who's relied on such "inside knowledge" to try to help Russia, he's relied on it to harm Russia. Precisely because of the MFA's broken feedback loops that I never tire of talking about, however, Russia was none the wiser.
I fear that few, if any, realized this. They really seem to have no idea how "clever" Aliyev is and the lengths to which he was willing to go to advance his country's interests at Russia's expense.
At the end of the day, it's their country and thus their responsibility to try to help it. I can't "love Russia more than the Russians themselves do", especially the diplomats tasked with this responsibility. My conscience is clean, theirs isn't.
Five years ago, Russia was despised—a racist kind of contempt (much like that shown toward Poles, Slovaks, Baltics, Romanians, Serbs, or Albanians—the Czechs, Hungarians, Slovenes, and Croats are part of the western club... in third class, while the French and Latins are in second class). But it was feared. Enough so for an appearance of respect. Today, Russia is merely despised in the West. Beware—the PRNR (the Russian-speaking world abroad?), being extremely disappointed and dismayed by Russian passivity, could tomorrow become its harshest detractors. I wonder if Russian leaders realize the extreme danger that this growing contempt represents for their country?
EXACTLY! I've been warning about that for a while, namely that the "Potemkinist" psy-op of lying about Russia's objectively existing and easily verifiable policies will ultimately breed so much resentment among the NRPRs that they'll either become literal psychopaths who continue lying to themselves or more likely feel betrayed upon inevitably learning the truth, realizing they were lied to, and transforming their former radical love of Russia into radical hatred (there's sometimes a thin line between love and hate).
Russia's "soft power supervisors" would unfortunately, I truly believe, prefer for people to like Russia based on false premises than to like Russia based on the truth of its policies even if they sometimes disagree with them.
What they want aren't supporters per se, but cultists, people who'll "trust the plan" (which is a completely made-up one tailored to what certain categories of supporters think is "the right policy" and therefore contradictory since multiple "plans" exist) and never ever question it.
Some NRPR cultists truly believe that Putin is an anti-Zionist just like they are while others believe that he wants to liberate Constantinople and return it to a Christian capital. It's absolutely batshit crazy but they genuinely believe that these are his "secret plans".
The reality of Russia behaving deferentially towards both Israel and Turkiye is casually dismissed as part of a "5D chess master plan for psyching them out", they can't accept the reality before their very eyes or their worldview would collapse with all that would entail for their stability.
"My conscience is clean, theirs isn't."
I doubt they care. Those private school fees aren't going to pay themselves.
Yes.
The question posed in the title—regarding the timing—is a bold one. With Aliyev’s commitment to TRIPP, the explosive device planted by the Americans has effectively been fitted with a fuse. If Russia does not soon bring Azerbaijan back into its sphere of influence, its southern flank will become a massive staging ground within five to ten years.
Without a regime change, it is probably too late.
Until some American or Turk snaps his fingers.
It's the story of the plantation 'negro' who becomes a house 'negro' and ends up growing so bold that one day he sits at the masters' table. Just for a moment. The masters are experts at playing the 'negroes' against one another and reminding them that they can quickly be sent back to the plantation.
Russia sit sright atop Azerbajan and the USA is 10,000 miles away. Russia will control the area. Russia controls virtually all of Asia except Israel the American favoate. Russia is a NUCLEAR S upere Power.
If you tell that story by the Kremlin wall, the walls themselves might even start to crumble from all the laughter.
But in a way, looking at the big picture, you’re actually right. If you reduce geopolitics solely to Russia, it holds true.
Perhaps.
You never stop?