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Darras's avatar

Beautiful analysis.

But their is a very big lobbi in India, oligarchs and a big part of deep state and army, which don't give a shit of India sovereignty or agenda of greatness.

This very powerful faction only want to be rich and powerful compradores , never mind if it weaken, impoverish and even burst India. They consider themselves USA as a second homeland. They exactly are like the notables of colonized land of Roman empire. Wealth and imperial citizenship are enough for them, even at the cost of the destruction and enslavement of their compatriots. We have the same in Europe, and they currently rule.

Will they succeed?

Modi is not Indira Gandhi.

Feral Finster's avatar

Those rich Indians also crave American university degrees for their offspring and British trappings, to name a few. China and Russia can offer nothing comparable.

Paul Jurczak's avatar

"Discounted Russian Energy Accelerates India’s Economic Rise"

It's not only a direct economic impact of the oil India buys from Russia. It is also the investment Russia is forced to make into Indian economy, with rupees for oil being held by Reserve Bank of India, hard to repatriate or exchange for a different currency. On the other hand, RBI allows for investment in local government bonds, stocks, equities, and loans. See: https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Delhi-pays-for-Russian-oil-in-rupees%2C-which-Moscow-reinvests-in-India-60711.html

Deplorable Commissar's avatar

Why doesnt India demand that it pays all its bills in Rupees, why only single out Russia ?

Paul Jurczak's avatar

India is taking advantage of the situation, just like any serious country would do, but it allowed in the past for Russia to be paid in part in Saudi Riyals.

Deplorable Commissar's avatar

What a friendly nation , and BRICS partner India is. Kicking Russia while its down. Does India pay in Rupees to any other country ? Does it accept rupees for its products and services or does it demand to be paid in dollars ? The Indians are duplicitous scum.

Kennewick Man's avatar

Somewhere in this complex tariffs/sanctions driven poker game there are a bunch of cards already stocked to seek and reward the next American proxy player in Asia. Since neither China nor India is willing to take the bait that leaves a range of smaller, economically capable nations and Pakistan is the only one with nukes. Japan and South Korea have very strong economies but they can hardly stand up against a Russia-China-India triangle. I have a tough time to sort out Trump here. Is he really just struggling with the destructive leftover of prior US administrations or he wants to make sure that the Global South will dominate geopolitics before he leaves office?

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Pakistan is on pace to restore its historical role as the US' regional proxy:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-us-pakistani-rapprochement-could

Kennewick Man's avatar

Poor little Pakistan....

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I genuinely feel sad whenever I think about it. First the post-modern coup in April 2022 against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan, then the persecution of his supporters followed by his jailing on totally bogus charges and placement in solitary confinement, and now all of this.

I've been there five times, in fact my PhD dissertation was on Russian-Pakistani relations, so I feel very strongly about the country. After the post-modern coup and everything that happened since, I couldn't in good conscience continue sharing my insight with its universities like I had hitherto been doing.

Knowing that people who share similar worldviews as me were being rounded up and in some cases literally disappeared filled me with disgust. There were also such blatant lies being circulated by the state and government-connected "journalists", both about what happened and the subject of Russian oil imports.

It was all so dirty. I knew exactly where it was headed too and now we have a de facto military dictator in charge who resubordinated Pakistan to the US at the expense of its objective national interests and the will of its people. It's really incredibly sad. Pakistan and Pakistanis deserve better.

Kennewick Man's avatar

Your description of Pakistani events covers a typical situation where the top inner core is bribed by an outside power; a totalitarian, militaristic system is created that subjugates with force the whole of society. Politically this is often a one-way street that ends in a dead-end of domestic political conflicts. In addition Pakistan shares borders with India, Iran and Afghanistan. India is already a nuclear power and Iran is on the way toward this same goal. Placing their own nation on a collision course with two neighbors to represent a third nation’s interest on the other side of the globe not exactly a smart idea.

Darras's avatar

English colonizer adored to let a little gift, purulent abscess, to the colonized country they leaved. Pakistan, since 1947 have been the purulent abscess of India.

What it would be interesting is what are the motivations of heads of army to play against their own homeland.

And how they can, at the same time rely on USA and China.

At least, military dictator ship in south American or Asia in 60-70's , had in common a viscerally hate of communism and what they called "social anarchy", but what are the motivations of militaries, judges, officials who betray their country ti submit it to US will?

Stu Turley's avatar

I will be covering this on my next podcast - well done.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Thanks, and wonderful!

Feral Finster's avatar

On the one hand, the Americans demand complete submission, and they only take, never give. Even medieval thralls were owed obligations from their lords.

On the other hand, the Americans have made it plain that they will go out of their way to hurt all that do not entirely submit, body and soul.

Duane McPherson's avatar

Yes, and such violence is the last recourse of a disintegrating empire. Or a desperate mafia don.

Darras's avatar

No dear friend, bullying and violence are the typical way of empires , at all times, birth, raise, grow, decline, death.

The only difference is that between the beginning of decline and death, empires suffer violence too and finish by only suffer of it.

You can notice that US empire don't suffer yet violence at all .

Duane McPherson's avatar

Most ordinary Americans are blissfully ignorant or in denial of knowing that they live at the center of an empire. But America as a nation is falling apart from within, at increasing velocity, and the election of a demagogue as president is one more sign of the unraveling of the social fabric.

Deplorable Commissar's avatar

How is Russia's migrant deluge and its demographic catastrophe going ?

Feral Finster's avatar

Funny, since treasury yields reflect no such thing.

Feral Finster's avatar

Trump is too stupid to be a mafia don. He's more a carnie.

Duane McPherson's avatar

Agreed. He's just a frontman, the public face of the plutocracy.

Darras's avatar

No, he is not stupid, he help his gang to make money and he throw some beans to his dumb fans. And the morons applaud.

You know, kind of people who shake his cap in whistling wildly when USA throw a little country against the wall to show who is the boss.

Feral Finster's avatar

Hardly a sign of intellect.

Rav's avatar

Thank you. This is quite insightful. India weathered sanctions when it was a lot poorer, so we can manage again. But this looks like a long-term change, meaning India-US relations will continue to deteriorate and not necessarily recover post-Trump

LJones's avatar

Somewhat off topic, but curious if anyone thinks the Azerbaijan / Armenia deal gives Trump any leverage in the talks with Pres Putin? Could this be the "land swap" he's referring to?

Darras's avatar

Hey yes.

Indian heroism is measured in dollar.

It exports 80 billions toward USA. But the margin profit is less than ten for the country.

At the same time, India have 60 bns dollars russian oil for free( selling for rupees is giving) that it sells in good dollar.

That's pure heroism.

Deplorable Commissar's avatar

The Indian economy is fully depended on the West, especially the US, and on remittance from abroad. The US controlled West could collectively collapse it if needed.

--------------------------------

Total Annual Remittances from the U.S. to India

In 2024, India received a total of around US $129 billion in remittances from its diaspora worldwide, with approximately US $32 billion—about 28% of the total—originating specifically from the United States .

Another source puts the figure slightly higher, estimating total remittance inflows of US $135.46 billion for the 2024–25 fiscal year, and indicates a 14% increase compared to the previous year. While this figure likely aggregates remittances from the U.S. and other countries, a substantial portion surely comes from the U.S. .

Remittance Patterns & Context

The U.S. consistently ranks among the top remittance source countries for India. As noted in a recent analysis, the U.S. accounted for about 28% of India's inward remittance flow in 2023–24, amounting to roughly $32 billion

Financial Times.

On a global scale, remittance inflows to India have more than doubled since 2010, growing from about US $69 billion in 2017 to over US $125 billion in 2023

Pramod's avatar

Problem is that India had been placed by the British colonisers under defacto control of a cabal of untouchability-monger Goanese and Dravidian suzerains who are legacy-bearers of the scounderals who had foisted a religion of crass untouchability and mindless superstition on India after enslaving the Vedic Arya natives of India in cahoots with Neanderthal colonisers from Europe in remote antiquity and hijacking plus ransacking the egalitarian Vedic religion of the native Indian masses. This is a pervasive cabal which exercises ubiquitous control over all walks and spheres of social life, polity, juristic governance and economics in India. This Dravidian-Goanese priestcrafty cabal feigns Hinduistic pretentions with the sole aim of injecting poison directed against Russia in the veins of social discourse. It impersonates both Hinduism and India. The Vedic Arya masses of India are inseparably united by dint of supra-spiritual entanglement with the Russian masses since before the beginning of time and till beyond the end of time. This situation has been rendered even more complex that various European Churches entrenched in the Indian subcontinent, have completely entrained the destructive energies of the pseudo-Indian lustbag cabal afflicted with the ignominious Shilpa Shitty syndrome. This evil cabal revels in formulating policy decisions inimical to the interests of Russia, under the firm conviction that Russians are inalienable kindred cousins of Vedic Indians and causing harm to Russia is the best way to wreak vengeance upon the Vedic Indian masses. Nothing more needs to be said for elucidating the entire picture.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I'm done giving trolls a second chance not to disrespect me. That'll only be reserved for exceptional cases from here on out or if I'm feeling generous on that given day.

As a reminder to everyone else, I encourage the sharing of respectfully expressed contrarian views, but I'm not going to accept being insulted.

Darras's avatar

Obviously, you haven't encountered much, especially not intelligence and intellectual honesty.

Duane McPherson's avatar

Okay, I think you've had enough sunlight. You can go back under your rock, now.