India Has A Decent Chance Of Expanding Its Military-Technical Exports

They’re low-cost and could be politically beneficial but are of questionable quality for now.

Reuters published a detailed report last week about how “India offers cheap loans for arms, targeting Russia's traditional customers”, which explained how its plans to empower the Export-Import Bank to extend long-term and low-cost loans to clients could boost its military sales abroad. The second part of their report’s title is sensational though since Russia plans to export their jointly produced equipment to more countries along the lines of last year’s Philippine model.

Most casual observers aren’t aware, but Russia greenlit India’s export of jointly produced supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines, one of the US’ mutual defense allies, in early 2024. The strategic rationale was discussed here and relates to Russian arms exports getting around US sanctions due to being jointly produced with India. That piece also mentions how the US turned a blind eye to this since it helps indirectly balance China, thus raising the chances of it doing the same with Indonesia.

Come what may, it’s also indisputable that India’s military-industrial complex wants to step into the market on its own by exporting more purely indigenously produced wares, which could indeed cut into some of Russia’s existing share in other countries’ supplies. Such opportunities could arise among those clients whose military-technical needs weren’t fully met over the past three years as Russia naturally prioritized the production of arms for its ongoing special operation over fulfilling its foreign contracts.

Upon entering some new markets via these means, India could then expand its presence by promoting the political benefit of continued imports, namely the argument that relying more on Indian equipment over Russian ones could reduce Western pressure on these countries. The same point is relevant with regard to those that are importing more Chinese equipment and can even be adapted to appeal to Western customers by suggesting that it’ll lead to less Russian and/or Chinese pressure on them too.

In other words, India’s reputation as a truly neutral country in the New Cold War coupled with its new image as the Voice of the Global South could combine to add political benefits for those who expand military-technical cooperation with it, but whether or not this comes to pass remains to be seen. After all, for as low-cost and politically beneficial as these imports might be, most of them haven’t ever been tested in real-life battle conditions so their quality remains questionable.

Therefore, only the poorest countries might consider large purchases of purely indigenously produced Indian military equipment at first, and only after they’ve achieved success in battle against (most likely) non-state actors or received positive appraisals could the range of clients expand. Those like the Philippines that import jointly produced wares would likely remain within that ecosystem for a while due to Russia’s reputation in the industry instead of quickly switching to purely indigenously produced wares.

Nevertheless, despite these challenges, India veritably has a decent chance of expanding its military-technical exports due to their competitive cost and political benefits. A robust marketing campaign by its defense attachés across the Global South, possibly including a reward program for those countries whose referrals lead to deals being signed, would help a lot in popularizing these advantages. India won’t become a major exporter, at least not anytime soon, but it could still fill an important niche.