Interpreting Pakistan’s Support For Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

Pakistani-US ties are on the cusp of a renaissance that could restore their Old Cold War-era “golden age” of relations provided that they remain on track as expected.

Trump’s claim that “the Prime Minister and Field Marshal of Pakistan…were with us right from the beginning” as the US devised its Gaza peace plan that he presented at the White House this week and Shehbaz Sharif’s public endorsement of its 20 points have raised eyebrows. After all, Pakistan has espoused some of the fieriest anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian rhetoric anywhere in the world since October 7^th, thus necessitating an interpretation of its latest policy. Here’s what it means:

----------

1. State-Backed Conspiracy Theories About Imran Khan Disguised Preparations For This Move

State-linked legacy and social media influencers have spewed conspiracy theories about former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has two sons with his Jewish ex-wife Jemima Goldberg and was deposed through a post-modern coup in April 2022, alleging that he was secretly repairing ties with Israel. It can now be concluded that these were intended as a domestic distraction to disguise the de facto military regime’s preparations for this same move that their proxies lied that he was the one allegedly planning.

2. Pakistan Is Nowhere Near As Hostile Towards Israel As Its Rhetoric Dishonestly Suggested

Pakistan has always supported a two-state solution, yet its rhetoric after October 7^th suggested that it was irredeemably hostile to Israel for ideological reasons, but that now seems to have been a ruse. Trump’s peace plan essentially amounts to Hamas’ defeat and Israel’s victory so Pakistan’s support for this outcome exposes the hollowness of its aforesaid rhetoric in hindsight. It also debunks speculation that Pakistan’s “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” with Saudi Arabia is aimed against Israel.

3. There’s Accordingly A Chance That It Participates In Gaza’s “International Stabilization Force”

Trump didn’t specify which countries would contribute to the “International Stabilization Force” in post-war Gaza, but it can’t be ruled out that Pakistan might be among them, both due its newly warming ties with Israel and its decades of security assistance to the Arab countries. This includes helping Jordan put down a Palestinian uprising in September 1970 and training the Gulf’s armed forces. It thus wouldn’t be surprising if its soldiers, which also have extensive UN peacekeeping experience, soon play a role in Gaza.

4. Pakistan Might Even One Day Join The Abraham Accords So Long As The Saudis Do So Too

Pakistan has made its recognition of Israel dependent on the creation of an independent Palestinian State, which might arise from the aftermath of the Gaza War, therefore possibly leading to it joining the Abraham Accords. Even though Pakistan considers itself to be a leader of the Ummah by virtue of being the world’s first modern country created for Muslims, it still defers to Saudi Arabia’s leadership due to its custodianship of the Two Holy Mosques, so this would only realistically happen if the Saudis do so too.

5. The US Is Expected To Handsomely Reward Pakistan If It Goes Through With All Of This

Pakistan wouldn’t participate in Gaza’s “International Stabilization Force” and then possibly recognize Israel together with Saudi Arabia due to philo-Semitism among its military-political leadership but only with the expectation of handsome rewards from the US. It generally wants to restore their Old Cold War-era “golden age” of relations and in particular envisages the US openly preferring Pakistan over India as its top South Asian partner with all the adverse consequences that would entail for the latter’s interests.

----------

Pakistani-US ties are on the cusp of a renaissance provided that they remain on track. Imran Khan’s ouster in early 2022, which he blamed on US meddling that relied on corrupt military-political elite to succeed, can be seen in retrospect as a game-changer in their relations. While advocates claim that this trend represents the mutually beneficial alignment of their interests, critics contend that it’s equivalent to Pakistan resubordinating itself to the US, but it’s unclear whether public opinion will change anything.