Interpreting The Serbian Counter-Intel Chief’s Update On The TurkStream Plot

In what’s been called the “Battle for Hungary”, this thwarted terrorist attack is thus far the most dramatic development by a long shot, much more meaningful that the latest Russiagate claims.

Serbian counter-intelligence chief Duro Jovanic shared three updates about the thwarted terrorist attack against the TurkStream pipeline that the Hungarian authorities strongly implied was ordered by Ukraine. According to him: “a person from a group of migrants” was responsible for planting the two bombs; “it is not true that the Ukrainians tried to organize this”; and “the markings on the explosives show that it was manufactured in the USA.” Here’s how to interpret these updates:

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1. Ukraine Actually Isn’t Exonerated

Jovanic cannot know for certain this early into the investigation that Ukraine didn’t play a role in organizing this thwarted terrorist attack. The only reason why he prematurely ruled it out was likely to reduce pressure from Ukraine and the EU after the conspiracy theory began to circulate that this was a Russian false flag to harm their opposition proxy ahead of this Sunday’s next parliamentary election. The Hungarian authorities’ strong insinuation that Ukraine was responsible is therefore still credible.

2. It Could Have Recruited The Suspect

As for the suspect, who he described as “a person from a group of migrants”, this person could have been recruited by Ukraine even if they weren’t aware. Both sides of the Ukrainian Conflict have accused one another of recruiting terrorist accomplices through Telegram with payment in cryptocurrency. This modus operandi is one of the reasons why Russia banned Telegram. It’s therefore not inconceivable that Ukraine recruited the suspect in this way even if they didn’t know it was the one offering them this job.

3. The US-Made Bombs Exonerate Russia

The conspiracy theory that this was a Russian false flag is discredited by the fact that the bombs were made in the US. Russia doesn’t have access to such armaments, but Ukraine and NATO allies do, so the first is exonerated while the second are still potential culprits. While it remains to be determined exactly how the US-made bombs found their way into Serbia, it therefore wouldn’t be surprising if some of Ukraine’s European NATO allies helped procure them since they too want to depose Orban.

4. Both Sides Will Still Blame The Other

It’s difficult to imagine the investigation concluding before Sunday, so each side will still blame the other till then, with Hungary sticking with its insinuation that Ukraine was responsible while Ukraine and the foreign-backed Hungarian opposition stick with the false flag conspiracy theory. Therefore, it’ll be up to voters to decide for themselves what happened and how this might affect their decision, but all those with a stake in the outcome – Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and even the US – will try to influence them.

5. Will Vance And/Or Trump Chime In?

Vice President JD Vance will be in Budapest from Tuesday to Wednesday to demonstrate Trump 2.0’s support for Orban, during which time he might chime in on what he thinks happened (whether on his own prerogative or if he’s asked by the media), and/or Trump himself might do so before Sunday. It’s improbable that either would lend credence to the false flag conspiracy theory, so they might lend credence to Hungary’s insinuation that Ukraine is to blame, but not in any way that harms bilateral ties.

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In what’s been called the “Battle for Hungary”, this thwarted terrorist attack against TurkStream is thus far the most dramatic development by a long shot, much more meaningful that the latest Russiagate claims. As was argued above when interpreting the Serbian counter-intelligence chief’s updates on this plot, the false flag conspiracy theory is discredited and it compellingly looks like Ukraine was responsible, with the remaining questions being whether they had European NATO support and to what degree if so.